Ok, I am thinking towards the general election, and want to lay down a few assumptions and guesses I am making first.

1. I am assuming that if McCain gets the nom, he will take Huckabee as his VP. I think that will shore up the staunch conservative base that distrusts him. So far, thanks to Romney's presence and the front-runner status McCain established prior to Romney's pull-out, Huckabee and McCain have, for the most part, avoided taking dirty swings at each other. Hence, I do not think they are fighting/can't stand eachother. Huckabee is staying on, and as he pulls wins in certain states at this point, its not to win, but to prove to McCain he needs someone like Huckabee as VP.

This is a strong duo in my book. It can get the 'middle' and can get the deep right.

What can the dems do? Please throw out your suggestions.

2. I am assuming the 'middle' means something different based on regional politics, so I am breaking this down by region rather than saying there is one homogenous 'middle.' I am also only considering what I think are swing-states. As great as Obama has been winning 70% of the vote in Alabama, Alabama is still voting red in the general election. I'd be psyched if Hillary won Texas, but again, I'm not delusional that Texas is going to suddenly go blue in the general election.

So please suggest swing states as well.

Southwest
This is a huge problem this year. Namely, McCain is already from AZ, so regional identity could kick in hard. This does happen. There is no other way to explain how Romney won MA, except that he was governor there, because people hated him as governor in MA. They hated him so much, they actually elected a democrat to governor...which they never do. Still, when the primaries came, they voted for him anyways. The dems could counter by pulling a popular southwest governor or other political figure. But, that doesn't gaurantee them the area because of McCain's home-state identity.

Also, his one huge popular issue there is immigration. The Dems cannot differntiate themselves from him as extremely as they do other Republicans on this issue, and this issue is of primary (if not the most important) concern for Southwest voters.

Aside from getting a southwest VP, either Hillary of Obama would have to really put forth a complete and detailed immigration position.

or

They could ignore the Southwest assuming the cards are stacked against them there and instead concentrate on Arkansas and Missouri.

I do not usually consider Arkansas to be a swing state, but in this case, because of home-base identity, Hillary could take it. Bu not if Huckabee is vp. He is closer in their memory, and frankly, the state is not usually close to the democratic platform. If Huckabee runs VP, there's no chance, even if Hillary is on the ticket (as P or VP). If he doesn't, this *might* be a state to look out for.

Missouri, however, is always a state to look out for. Its always 1% there, and could easily swing. Looking at the break-down in districts in the Dems, Obama was very popular in the major cities, which tend to be the areas that vote Dem in the general election too. He didn't quite resonate in other areas, but maybe if he took a local politician? Maybe Jean Carnahan? I don't know. She wasn't that big there, but she was well-liked and has alot of sympathy there. Other people, feel free to suggest/interpret.

or

Florida
Actually, I think there is no way in hell Florida is voting Democrat anytime soon. But everyone else seems to think so, hence why I included it. Feel free to actually suggest how in god's name this state would vote blue. Only suggestion I have to the democratic candidates is to create a very explicit and detailed plan for health care, retirement financial support, and ways to fix FEMA. Then maybe the Dems have a slim chance. Maybe.

or

Ohio
This state could really swing this year, because it does not have the same concerns over immigration that the Southwest has. It's not to say people don't care about it, but its not number one on their voting agenda the way it is in Southwest states that deal with it on a more regular basis (and yes, I am talking specifically about Mexico). The economy is much more important and this is where neither McCain or Huckabee is seen as being stong. This is why Romney was doing well around the great lakes region. If the Dems can seem more physically responsible they have a way in. Also, regional identification doesn't hurt either. Unlike Arkansas, there really is no Republican politican right now that is running from this area. If McCain finds one, than Dems will have a tough time on their hands. In that case though, Arkansas opens up.

I still see a Hillary/Obama ticket doing well here. I'd see an Obama/Hillary ticket doing very well here too, but I don't think Hillary would ever be VP so that's another assumption I'm making, of course. But, there are several other politicians with regional ties and associated strengths (like economy, immigration, etc) that could also be options for either of the Dem candidates right now.

Based on these impressions, does anyone have ideas for strong VP? For what reasons? Regional or Platform associations? Also, what other areas might be up for contention and 'swinging,' and why?

Cheers!

In as much as the veep choice matters, I can't see how Huckabee helps McCain. Are the people on the right who hate him going to hate him less? What is Huckabee going to bring to the table? He can't be president unless something happens to McCain.

On the flip side, he would scare someone like me, a Dem inclined to support him over Hillary, completely away. I'm not casting a vote for Huckabee, even if it is for veep.

Hmm. I guess because I am assuming McCain already has support from the middle and is worried about keeping the more steady right base. Bringing Huckabee on gets the increasingly growing population of voters that want to see a "true conservative" in office, even if it is VP. But still holds enough moderates who realize the VP isn't such as a big deal. That was my logic. But maybe McCain will try to get someone who has a reputation as a good economist? I'm thinking he's worried that (again, an assumption) about all those states Huckabee is winning right now. That maybe those people will sit out the vote if they have no one to even mildly identify. Its a group that tends to vote on issues/identification..not just on 'electability' and 'holding office.' That's why I thought they might group up.

Who else would he take, and how would it help in those swing (or other swing) states? Ohio does have a large amount of Evangelicals. He may actually need them to turn out in order to counter the urban/youth pull Obama has, or Clinton's perceived ability to handle economy.

Also, If Obama, wins, he won't take Hillary as VP (nor would she accept it), so some of my 'swing' state questions are geered towards who he could look towards/pick as VP. He, like McCain, is not known as an economist/businessman, so needs to keep that in mind in a place like Ohio when he picks a VP.

I'm not sure if someone like Richardson would be able to counter McCain's home-region (Southwest) advantage or not. Southwest may be totally out of the picture this time around as 'swing.' Of course, I'd love to hear other people's opinion on this, as I'm most likely wrong.

My thinking is this: in the end, Republicans are going to vote for the Republican nominee, especially if Hillary is running against him. In that sense, he doesn't need to shore up the base. Enough Republicans will stay loyal to the party that what McCain really has to worry about are the moderates and independents, who could go either way even if the Dem nom is Hillary. And a woman veep would be a good way to do that. Barring that, a moderate of some kind.

But I'm no prognosticator and I can only really speak for myself. In a match up between Hillary and McCain, I'd probably vote for McCain UNLESS his veep is some kind of whack job like Huckabee.

This stuff is pointless until we know VPs and the general lay of the land by Labor Day. If Iraq gets back on the radar and the economy tanks, there are just too many variables. I do agree McCain makes the Southwest much less likely to be peeled of by either Dem nominee.