I think the Effect holds some weight, and I'm sure it's going to be brought up a million times this year - whether Obama wins the nomination or not.

But what about SC, when he was polling at 10% with whites but came out with 25%?

I feel like Obama's different breed of candidacy kind of messes with the Effect's theory.

But maybe not. We'll see, I guess.

SC showed the other way though. The polls were actually more off there than in NH, by an average of 18%, but in the direction of Obama. Iowa, where Obama won by 8% although the pre-election polls showed mostly a dead heat, also exhibited no Bradley effect.

And I don't think NH's results were merely due to the Bradley effect, if at all; it had to do more with women jumping to Clinton's defense and back into her camp after a few days of wavering post-Iowa once they saw her emotion. And there were a few other factors that I found myself agree with.

I'm not really trusting Mason Dixon's polls though. They are the one that had Obama's support among SC whites at 10%, where the actual number turned out to be 24%. They now have Obama leading Georgia by only 6%, where everywhere the lead is double-digit. I'd trust the other three CA polls and draw the conclusion that it's a dead heat in CA, with Obama gaining (since Rasmussen had Clinton up by 3 in the previous poll). It could be due to LA Times or MoveOn endorsement, or Edwards supporters starting to lean toward Obama after a couple of days, or whatever other possibilities.

at this point romney may be positioning himself to be the 2012 front runner if democract win the election and mccain loses.

Does anyone know how Romney is doing in Mass? most people I know (granted democrats, but it is hard to find a lot of republicans) hated him as governor.

huge huge lead 20 point + all around.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... y-538.html

Tennesse Democrats:
Clinton 55, Obama 35

Tennesee Republicans:
McCain 32, Huckabee 30, Romney 22

Looks like I can't vote in the primaries. I started my transition in claiming Illinois residency (for tuition purposes) last week, which included registering to vote in Illinois. I asked the clerk and she said that means that I probably can't vote back home in Missouri. Darn.

Oh well, I was registered as Democrat, but now that Edwards is out of the race I had nobody to back.

You know, I don't understand the logic behind this excuse for the New Hampshire results. Polls were pretty much spot on about his support so it's not like people were claiming they would vote for him and then didn't. It was with Hillary's support that they were way off, with the final results being much higher than polls indicated.

Maria Shriver endorsed Obama earlier today.

Obama is finally leading in the latest CNN national poll (49-46). Zogby's daily update also shows he is pulling away in CA (46-40). Very interesting.

it's sad. but as I've said, if I have to vote for Obama in November I will. But tomorrow, Hillary all the way!

Obamamentum!

Unfortunately a lot of early votes in Ca. were mailed in before Obama's momentum so it's very possible Hillary will pull out a win, maybe probable.

Most polls include a question on early voting though, so they're taking it into account in the numbers.

Hillary tears up again

Just like the last time it's right before an important primary.

Good for her. If she can use this to win some votes, I'm with her. At some level, tears are always real.

Hillary has tears. Obama has Oprah, the Superbowl, etc. Which one is more honest?

Is that even a serious question when referencing Hillary?

The only reason you and others don't think it applies to Obama is because he hasn't been around long enough.

Listen, a politician is a politician. If you think Obama is not using this HOPE and CHANGE thing as a tool to get the youth vote and the current momentum he has, then frankly you're being naive. I think many of those getting behind Obama are going to be very disappointed once time shows he's not going to be able to bring about the change he dreams of. Hillary has been dragged and dumped on and exposed plenty of times already. We know what's in her skeleton closet. What do we really know of Obama? I like the guy. He speaks well. But I fear that may be all there is to him.

Can we please re-title this thread "Tsunami Tuesday"? Please? I love that description. Its f.u.n.n.y...and very apt.