The Florida recount was pretty exciting. I'm sure the uproar would have been much greater had the nation been informed of the Electoral College being a relic institution of slavery.

Ehh, elaborate on that point, please.

Momentum

Democrats - CALIFORNIA
Clinton - 43%
Obama - 40%
Spread - 3%

Momentum

Democrats - CALIFORNIA
Clinton - 43%
Obama - 40%
Spread - 3%

Days to Massachusetts Democratic Primary, Clinton 24 points Atop Obama: In a Democratic Primary in Massachusetts today, 01/31/08, 5 days to the 02/05/08 vote, Hillary Clinton, on the backs of women, leads Barack Obama by 24 points, according to research conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Clinton gets 57% to Obama's 33% today. But the contest is suddenly tied among men. All of Clinton's lead comes from women, where she leads by 39 points. This is SurveyUSA's 3rd tracking poll in MA, but the first since John Edwards withdrew from the contest. Likely Primary voters are asked to pick which one of 8 issues is most important to them. On all 8 issues, Clinton does better than Obama.

Carried by 7 of 10 Pro-Life Voters, Romney Poised to Win Home State of Massachusetts: In a Republican Primary in Massachusetts today, 01/31/08, 5 days to the 02/05/08 Primary, Republican favorite son Mitt Romney leads John McCain by 23 points, 57% to 34%, according this SurveyUSA Tracking poll conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Romney is backed by 7 of 10 Pro-Life voters and Conservative voters.

The Western NE College is based on a sample size of 151 and was conducted between Jan 20 and 26th, so it has a large margin of sampling error and didn't include the Kennedy effect.

The Tennessee poll doesn't look quite right either. The under 30 population only accounted for 11% of their sample (and Hillary certainly won't be winning 80% among them for a larger sample). The blacks are split 50/50, also contradictory to what we see in other states, so I'd venture to say the sample isn't exactly random and appears biased.

That's an interesting spread between SurveyUSA and Rasmussen.

In Massachusetts, Clinton leads by sixteen percentage points among women while Obama leads by five points among men. Clinton’s support is more solid at this time than Obama’s. Among those who say they’d vote for the former First Lady, 74% are “certain” they won’t change their mind. Just 62% of Obama supporters are that certain.

That's an interesting spread between SurveyUSA and Rasmussen.

Clinton leads by 24-percentage points among women while Obama leads by five-points among men.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him and not change their mind. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Clinton’s voters are that certain of their support.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Garden State voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. The former First Lady earns positive reviews from 84% of women in the state along with 63% of men.

Obama is viewed favorably by 77%, including 82% of men and 74% of women.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by the Democrats. An identical percentage say that Obama would have a chance to win.

Forty-five percent (45%) of New Jersey voters see the economy as the top voting issue. Twenty-six percent (26%) name the War in Iraq and 11% see Health Care as the top priority.

McCain leads Romney 43% to 29% in the Garden State, with Mike Huckabee in a distant third with 7% and Ron Paul with 6%. Another 9% would choose some other candidate, while 5% are not sure. (see crosstabs)

A mid-January poll of this race surprised many as McCain came in two points ahead of Giuliani in New York’s neighboring state. Romney has picked up nineteen percentage points since that earlier survey.

McCain attracted votes from 62% of voters who consider themselves moderate. Conservatives were evenly divided, with 36% going to McCain and 38% choosing Romney.

McCain is seen as the most electable candidate, with 78% of voters polling that the former Arizona senator is at least somewhat likely to win the Republican nomination. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters believe Romney has at least somewhat of a chance to win the nomination.

Rasmussen Markets data following the candidate’s debate on Wednesday suggested that McCain had an 83% chance of winning the Republican Presidential nomination (current pricing: 84.6%). See a summary of market data for the GOP Super Tuesday Primaries and the latest Rasmussen Reports Super Tuesday polls

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/hillary_crashing_in_california

Stop the presses! The very latest polling data from California indicates a sharp trend for Obama and against Hillary. Preliminary indications in other states are that the trend is very widespread and not just concentrated on the west coast.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen's survey, conducted January 29, shows Hillary with a bare and dwindling 3 point lead over Obama in California. He has Hillary at 43%, Obama at 40%, and Edwards (the survey was conducted before he dropped out) at 9%. This data compares with a 20 point plus Hillary margin in most polls in California just a few weeks ago.

Other polls have Obama winning Georgia (O-52 H-36) and Alabama (O-40 H--35) with their sizable minority populations, but also very close in Massachusetts, trailing there by only H-43 O-37 and in Montana by only H-40 O-33. National polls also indicate a sharp closing of the race. Gallup has Hillary just six ahead and Rasmussen's national data is even closer.
Edwards' withdrawal will help Obama in all likelihood and, with these poll numbers, he is more likely to endorse Obama.

Of course, a lot will hinge on how well each candidate does in tonight's Democratic debate. But there could be a wrinkle. In most states, the most of the delegates are awarded by Congressional District where the two slates compete and the one with the most votes wins all the delegates from that district. Even if Obama were to carry California by, say 53-47, he might win the black districts by 80-20 and lose most or all of the white districts, giving Hillary the vast bulk of the delegates. Obama would have to get his margin of victory up to 8-10 points to be sure of sweeping the delegates in a given state.

Yet, when all is said and done, the trend lines for Obama are unbelievably positive just a few days before Super Tuesday.

McCain looks like a done deal. He is beating Romney in all five states with recent polls, winning California by 32-28, Illinois by 34-26, Georgia by 35-24, and Tennessee by 33-25. Huckabee is in second place in Tennessee with Romney running last.