Right now, I am thinking:

Martin Scorcese
Clint Eastwood
Marc Foster
Alexander Payne
Pedro Almodovar/Alejandro Amenabar/Mike Nichols (neither of their movies will get a Best Pic nom)

Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Mike Nichols, Closer
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

Then a surprise. Maybe something even crazy!

Pitof?

DGA noms:

Taylor Hackford - Ray
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne - Sideways
Mark Foster - Finding Neverland
Martin Scorcese - The Aviator


I think that, all of them, but Hackford will be nominated for Best Director now. I expect to either Gondry or Nichols to grab the fifth spot.

My final predictions:

Martin Scorcese, The Aviator
Marc Foster, Finding Neverland
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers


The 5th spot will be between Yimou, Mann, Hackford and George.

Question:

Do you think what Jamie Foxx said at the Globes represents the attitude of some Academy members? Meaning, is Hackford percieved as "bravely" taking a chance, telling and polishing a tale that was an African American's tale, with an African American cast?

We may see a 5/5 Picture/Director line up, and a 5/5 match with the DGA.

No, I don't think so

Frankly, people are expecting too many matches this year. They are expecting:

A 5:5 Best Actor match with the SAG
A 5:5 Best Actress match with the SAG
A 5:5 Best Picture match with the DGA / 5:5 Best Director match with the DGA
A 5:5 Best Picture/Best Director match

That's a bit too many matches. Not impossible, no, but unlikely.

WOW. Taylor Hackford was a real surprise.

I think there may in fact be a 5:5 match for the first time in a while. I realize alot of others are matching more categories (I'm not).

I still think Hackford won't get in, but his chances are increasing greatly and so has Ray's.

Even if you consider Hotel Rwanda/Ray a swing vote, that doesn't leave a lot of room for budging :?


I fully expect Giamatti to miss out on a nomination


Imelda Staunton and especially Catalina Sandino Moreno are great women in great films but not a sure bet.


5:5 Best Picture match with the DGA happened last year in fact. And there is not a HUGE amount of director canidates that are viable anymore. I wouldn't even consider Yimou viable anymore. If there is a surprise at this year's Oscars though, it will most likely be here in Best Director.


If you said though, at the start of this year that not one of the Best Picture canidates would make more than $100 million at the box office I would have laughed in your face.

I just think it's a weird year.

Hackford himself, I think may have a more clear path to a nomination than Ray the film does. And, on paper, I still think Ray's chances are much, much greater than Rwanda's.

So who do you expect to replace Paul Giamatti? The Best Actor category is the one that I think might really match 5:5...

Also, the thing with Moreno and Staunton is that there are not too many to replace them...

Oh and I think The Aviator will reach $100 million eventually.

PS: Hotel Rwanda will be nominated

Giamatti is the weak link... Eastwood still has a shot, as does Bardem. Bardem's chances really depend on how strong House of Flying Daggers is considered, and if House of Flying Daggers is considered the Best Foriegn Film winner.


I think that argument can be made for the top four or five categories this year. If there is some weird Closer love lurking around you may still find Julia Roberts in the race. Delpy is not much of a weaker canidate than Moreno.


Yeah but not before nominations (last week) which is what really counts. We all know the top 2 or so contendors to win in almost every category, it's just really finding out who's nominated on the fringes which holds any interest.


Yeah, sure thing for actor, maybe writing and maybe supporting actress. =D> Alfie still ends up with more Oscar wins though... even if Rwanda is nominated for picture ](*,) #-o

I really don't get why people think that Eastwood still has got a shot. I mean, really, I don't see any pre-cursor noms or awards for him

I agree with you. Eastwood will be a no-show come tuesday

There is almost always a performance which pops on the radar with no precurser wins or nominations (or almost no precursers). Last year it was Keisha Castle Hughes.

She had a Broadcast Film Critics Association, Chicago Film Critics Association and a SAG nom. That is by far and away more than Eastwood who hasn't got anything whatsoever so far.

Well he was just an example. Bardem is much more realistic. Point is that Giamatti is weak and it probably won't match up 5/5.

But even Giamatti has received more noms than Bardem so far and has at least won a couple of awards.

Certainly, I hope you're right, but I just don't think you are.

I think you and I have reached this mutual position where we can't sway each other anymore.

Thank god the noms are Tuesday

Are we doing IRC or chat or just messageboard? I have to get up at 5 am urgh

What time is it exactly at?

I don't mind either of the chatting options, by the way. Hopefully, I won't be in school, though :???:

It's 5:30AM PST, 8:30AM EST, and 2:30PM your time, I believe.

That's right, thank you.

Man, I'm going to barely make it. I usually come home from school at around 2:15 PM, provided the bus is not too late (it usually isn't though). Last time, I arived home about 2 minutes before the announcement.

What will you do if Ray is nominated?

What will I do if Hotel Rwanda is nominated?

THESE ARE BURNING QUESTIONS.

We'll need to keep the announcement threads to a minimum on Tuesday.

What will we do if both get nominated and Finding Neverland is snubbed?

OSCAR NOMINATIONS:

Martin Scorcese, The Aviator
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake


Mike Leigh is the definite surprise here, I don't think anyone has predicted him. Hackford and Payne are pretty much out of the race. It'll be down to Scorcese and Eastwood, but something tells me that Scorcese will be snubbed yet again while The Aviator will be rewarded.