Hehe, a magnum opus. :wink:

http://www.worldofkj.com/Galia-Oscar.php

Nice job, dolce!

Good job, Dolce! Just finished reading.

I agree on quite a couple of things, disagree on others (especially everything that concerns Bad Education )

I especially agree that A Very Long Engagement should have been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and that Ray should have been sunbbed for Best Director and Best Picture.

I am a bit surprised about your opinion on Virgina Madsen in Sideways. I'll see the movie tonight, so I'm looking forward to seeing if I agree with you on that

I agree with you on Best Director, Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor wins.

Dolce, that Leo pick is pretty gutsy, as is Kate.

Excellent read.

Hehe. I'm *gutsy*....

Idiotic...

but *gutsy* none-the-less.

Anyone who has read over the ten posts I have in the Box Office forums, knows my prediction abilities are somewhat limited, but I think I have good logic for the Kate and Leo wins. The academy usually tries to throw in one support of a comedy, and it comes in the form of best supporting actress, but that's not an option this year. Best Actress it is.

Lecter, let me know what you think of Madsen. She was ok, I just don't think its one of the top five performances of the year, and definately not worthy of the win its going to get. I think part of her nomination is due to raw creentime. This is no 8 minute Dame Judi Dench bit. She's in almost all the scenes, though honestly, even her friend gave a more note-worthy performance. I don't know, I'm still all for Coitilard's Tina. You yourself said she really stood out. I was also going to toss Eva Amurri up there, but she's really part of the ensemble cast question.

I thoght Cotilard was good and wuld have been even better if explored more, but I think she had about 5 minutes screentime tops.

Good work on Adapted Screenplay as well. Though I disagree on Sideways' chances in other categories. :wink:

WOW. I read nearly the entire thing.
I can't understand how you can have so many points that I feel almost directly in accordance with and yet so many others which just don't make sense to me.
Before anyone reads, I do want to let everyone know that in the end we all have opinions and I'm certainly not mad or am not gonna hold a grudge or anything at all of that sort against anyone for their opinions and their beliefs.

Adapted Screenplay: Agreed Sideways will easily take that award unless Million Dollar Baby sweeps. Agreed, Sideways deserves it. Strongly disagree that Baby should have been snubbed and I somehwat disagree on A Very Long Engagement. Soryy, but the film was just a little too much of a mess for me to really enjoy it. It had great potential though. The script is one of its strongest features and that's why I somehwat disagree with you.

Original Screenplay: Don't be so sure. The Aviator could pick this up like ROTK undeservingly picked up screenplay in place of the well-deserved Mystic River. I agree Bad Education was snubbed (big time). Haven't seen Badaaas but I really want to. As for Vera Drake... I think you're being way too harsh with this film, there could have been a few other better nominees but the screenplay wasn't that bad at all. Screenplay isn't wholly dialogue either!

Animated Feature: I won't get into this since I seem to be one of the only people on this earth that wasn't impressed with The Incredibles, though I knwo it will undoubtedly win!

I haven't seen any documentaries so I have no right to say anything about them.

While I have not seen Downfall and the other 2 nominees (I have seen Sea Inside and Chorus) I'm not stressing on who should win, but who WILL. And that is a NO_BRAINER: The Sea Inside. Sorry, but who has REALLY seen Downfall? About a fraction of those who have seen Vera Drake, a small fraction and at least half of who have seen The Sea Inside.

Supporting Actress: this seems to be the most directly split category. Alot of people think Madsen is gonna win and alot of others believe they just can't turn over Cate Blanchet playing Kate Hepburn. I do agree Cate gave the best performance of the bunch and of the year for a supporting actress. I don't believe MAdsen should have been snubbed down-right, but I REALLY don't think Driver was snubbed. If anything, for me, she was one of the most annoying parts of the movie and alot of others could have pulled it off. I, however, do think they will award Cate, but Madsen is a real BIG threat!

Supporting Actor: Not much to disagree with and not all do I strongly agree with, but Freeman will win. Enough said!

Best Actress: ALOT of things in this category worth mentioning. Uma Thurman was snubbed defintely and so was Julie Delpy (Before Sunset). I would LOVE to see Kate win, though it will be a tough obstacle jump over. Annette Benning has lost tremendous buzz and Hillary Swank already has a win. They won't give it to Moreno and Staunton's in too small a film. That does leave Kate. The question is how many votes can she take away from Swank??? Imelda Staunton, in my and alot of other people's opinions, gave the best performance of the year. Delpy, Thurman, Winslet, Swank and Benning were right there under the, It's a REALLY tough vategory and allot of women who deserve it. But I am sorry, I can't see the greatness in Moreno's performance. I desperately need to give the film a secind viewing, but truth be told (when I saw it in August last year) I didn not find really too much to be impressed from. A bit above average and defintely in the upper bracket of female performers, but over Thurman and Delpy???? NO WAY!!!!!

Best Actor: If there is a big upset Oscar night this will be it. Trust me, I know where you're coming from. I still believe it is possible, quite possible for this to happen. But for Jamie Foxx to lose this award would mean hell has frozen over. It will take ALOT ALOT ALOT for the magical number of voters to turn from Foxx and place DiCaprio in their ballot. It's extremely risky. I would never in a million years bet against Foxx winning, but I do know that you cannot underestimate the Academy in this category! Couldn't agree more that Depp should have been snubbed and Bernal should have been nominated (for Bad Education). But before everything, Ethan Hawke should have been recognized.

Best Director: Again, very tricky. Scorsese is loooong overdue but Eastwood is gaining buzz like there is no tomorrow. If Scorsese will pick up an Oscar for Best Picture, then Eastwood is the big favorite to win this. But I wouldn't be surprised if it went either way. And on who should win, I think Scorsese does edge out Eadtwood by a centimeter while the best director of the year is Quentin Tarantino and almodovar was indeed snubbed.

Best Picture: Well, looks like you're going against the tide with this one. Everyone seems to be predicting M$B. I'm with you. I can't see the Academy turning down The Aviator for best picture. If ever there was an "oscar-bait" film, this is the definitive example!! However, Maria Full of Grace does not, ABSOLUTELY does not belong on that snubbed list.

All that said, I can try to see where you come from on most of the ones I diagree with and accept your choices, but I just cannot let go of two things: 1)that you think Staunton shouldn't have been nominated and 2)that you think Neverland SHOULD win. I did not see that last one coming, but I'm sorry I just cannot even fathom how some people believe this movie deserves to be the best of the year (along with the entire AFI). It's in my top 25 movies and it certainly isn't a bad film, but in no way, shape, and form does this resemble an outsatnaing piece of film-making achievement over Aviator, Baby, Sideways, and yes, even Ray!!

You obviously put a great deal of effort into this and I admire not only your effort but all your opinions. I disagree with quite a few, but in the end, they are all opinions. Thanks for giving me an interesting read. It is great to finally have someone who has quite different takes on so many of the categories as well as in-depth analysis to explain.

WHO WILL AND SHOULD WIN: The Incredibles. There is really no question about this, Box Office gross mean little, had Shrek 2 and Incredibles release dates been reversed, I’m sure the Incredibles would have finished the year with the higher digits. Regardless, it’s a better movie, and the award won’t give props to the successor of a movie that already won.

For your information, Shrek 2 grossed $184M more than The Incredibles ( The difference was more than the gross of The Bourne Supremacy) . There was no way in hell TI was going to make more than it did even it was the only movie released for the entire year.

The internet geeks might have liked The Incredibles. 30 million more people watched Shrek 2 than the incredibles and that says something.

I agree with very little in your article.

In fact, I think the logic in it is rather flawed.

*shrug*

I think the "SHOULD WIN" for Finding Neverland did it for you

Haha. Should win is just basically my personal opinion, and will win is me trying to analyze (pretty badly) how I think the academy votes will go.

Raffiki, I agree with most of what you're saying. I think downfall is just safer bet than The Sea Inside. We go with the WWII movie everytime, and foreign pick tends to be our "social conscience." Hence why No Man's Land beat out the popular Amelie, Life is Beautiful, etc. Sea Inside is dealing with a very touchy issue today, which means we as a culture aren't sure of were our values stand on it enough to vote on it. Hitler is an easy target (please don't quote me on this). I wanted to put Delpy down too, and got half way through it, but stopped because I haven't actually seen the movie. I was going on what I've heard and just didn't feel like I was doing a good write up because I lacked any personal knowledge of it.

More responses to come soon, but I have to run.

Awwwww, andaroo, you didn't like my personal picks or you thought my predicting was way off target? Or both? :razz:

Good personal analysis =D> , though I do not agree with any of it but one :wink:

Your personal picks are your own, although in the "will win" category I think there is no balance between what is accessible to the large part of the audience vs. your personal indie picks. You are probably a less casual viewer than even members of the Academy, so you venting disappointment with the comparison between Scorsese and Sembene, you miss the essential fact that Scorsese is still part of "the system". Lets not forget, this is an American Awards show, and will mostly center around films that had an impact in a very American system.

So the whole thing is a buried dig at the Hollywood system or their lack of a warm embrace of foreign films. And I still disagree with the incessant whining about the foreign language category for reasons I explained elsewhere.

I also think you are way off base in your critisism of Million Dollar Baby and Ray. Ray is riding the wave of Ray Charles' death, sure, but the film was in production and in the can before his death. The Ray film is CAUSING the Ray Charles sensation. I can't fault it for that. Also the film has a $40 million budget, and considering Eternal Sunshine's is about $35 million, that's not incredibly high. Plus, unlike Sunshine, which is a major/minor studio project, it was NOT a Universal project, it was an indie that was just bought by a major.

I hate that you think Ray is "full of cliches" then defend The Motorcycle Diaries in the same breath. Both (to me) are about equal in that department, hell The Motorcycle Diaries, is to me, slightly better, but just because it is somber and Spanish doesn't mean it wasn't riddled with cliches, especially those stylistic/painful black and white "portaits" of the enpoverished Peruvian countryside and Che coming to the leper colony and turning into Jesus.

I can't fault you for liking Neverland, but I have no idea what you are saying when you say... " Finding Neverland is the most ambitious and ambiguous of the three films that investigate historic individuals."

That absolutely boggles my mind.

Then you THINK Leo and Kate and Virgina and Downfall will win.

So *shrug* I just see it way differently than you.

I read it and think your full of yourself.. YES, RAY Should've been nominated for BEST DIRECTOR AND BEST PICTURE since it was one of the best Biopics made about a Great Man and Singer and why not?? .. I guess will agree to strongly disagree with this issue..

...said the bolded font man.

And speaking of...

"I read it and think your full of yourself.. YES, RAY Should've been nominated for BEST DIRECTOR AND BEST PICTURE since it was one of the best Biopics made about a Great Man and Singer and why not?? Think .. I guess will agree to strongly disagree with this issue.."

Look how fun it is to read BKB's posts in an un-bolded fashion! C'mon, everyone. Join me!

If you guys enjoyed it that much, if you're members of other boards as well, do take the time to post the link and share it with them as well.

Bkb, Dolce is entitled to her opinion on this. I agree with less than half the thigns she said in there but atleast dont discount the work she put into writing all that. Shes no Scott Holleran thank God.

Great read!

guys, mind if I compose a list of my own? I'll get right at it (I don't have school this week).

I just wanted to say dolce, that's it's a good article. I have no beef with it, I just disagree with it.

Yeah, I heavily disagree with a lot of it, but it's a fun read nonetheless and even if I don't agree with much of your logic (not seeing how Foxx can possibly lose Best Actor), you managed to make me read the whole thing and further procrastinate from my homework. Bravo.

Dolce, it's a well written and entertaining Oscar prediction article, but here are some points that I feel you are way off on.

* While Sideways will win Best Adapted Screenplay, as a reward for not winning anything major, despite being a very well made movie, Million Dollar Baby should not have been snubbed. It's dialogue was what gave the character's their depth and their personailty quirks that made them so engaging. Also, the screenplay (what happens in the movie) has been the most talked about of any of the nominated movies.

* Cate Blanchet will win Best Supporting Actress, as she's playing a beloved hollywood icon, and it's the only real chance for an acting Oscar for The Aviator. If she doesn't win it, Natalie Portman is next in line.

* Morgan Freeman will win and should win Best Supporting Actor, no question about it. Not only is his M$B performance worthy of it, but he's built a career on Oscar worthy roles, and while receiving nominations, he's yet to win.

* I do agree that Kate Winslet is in position for an upset of Hilary Swank, and not Annette Bening, but the Best Actress is clearly leaning heavily toward Swank.

* Leo won't be winning, Foxx will, and if he's upset for some reason, it won't be by Leo, it will be by Eastwood. I do agree that Depp should have been snubbed, and he was only nominated to add to his "he's due" resume. The academy clearly want to reward both Leo and Johnny down the road.

* Eastwood should win Best Director, and deserves too, but Marty could upset him, and how could anybody begrudge the guy after 30 years of worthy best pictures peppered throughout his career. Not sure if QT's directing was tight enough, even though I'm a huge Kill Bill fan.

* There is going to most likely be a split this year, so if The Aviator wins Best Picture, Eastwood will win Best Director, and if M$B wins Best Picture, Marty will win Best Director. If the academy wants to please everybody, Marty wins best director, and Eastwood (who is a credited producer, and I'm not sure that Scorcese is, but he may be) wins for Best Picture.

I am really looking forward to see huim in his role. So far I saw Alan Alda (not so impressive), Thomas Haden Chruch (amazing!) and Clive Owen (just as amazing!).

Jamie Foxx was good, but his performance in Collateral pales in comparison to Ray...

But Owen and Chruch were both so amazing...hard to imagine that Freeman is even better.

Nice article Dolce. I agree with most of your choices, except I really thought that Depp was quite good in Finding Neverland.

Also, as I've stated before, if The Aviator wins Best Picture...then I'll never watch the Academy Awards again. Yes, I disliked it that strongly.

Hehe! I think the waving lepers at the end of Diaries was about as cliche as it gets...that's why its not suggested outside of screenplay and foreign film for me. There are at least three imports I liked better. For me it was strictly visceral. I couldn't sit through Ray. I got bored, looked around the theatre, sang the songs in my head, and checked my watch. I was still fairly engaged in Diaries, which says most I think about direction. I also just found his depiction of Ray's mom to be pretty offensive. Besides that though, yeah, Diaries waxed romantic.

I spent way too long on the write-up and look back on it realizing a missed a few. Oh well, I would have put Mann up for direction in Collateral since I thought that was Collateral's true strength. Like M$B, it took content which was a personal story. It didn't have big intrigue, conspiracies, etc...and he still managed to make it very interesting to watch. I wasn't bored at all. I also missed Giamatti for sideways in actor.... #-o I don't know how that snuck by me. It was getting late.

I think Leo and Kate, and Downfall will take it, but admittedly, Swank and Kate are close. I just went for the upset cause it makes for a better preview. I also think, though I forgot to mention (damn, I read this back it looks shotty even though it was 12 pages), that many people confuse her female fighter with a gender identity question, and don't want to reward her twice for the same role. Its unfortunate because its not the same role, and its sad that people think female athletes somehow go anywhere near the gender question, but it will affect votes for her, as does her recent win. Leo is only third in the running, but I've just heard so much about Cheadle and Foxx that I think there are going to be some sticky numbers. I remember Day-Lewis and Nicholson split votes and Brody cam eout of nowhere. That's what this feels like to me. But its really anyone's guess because Foxx could get it too. I think the double nom (lead and supporting) spells award suicide. Moore, Weaver, and a ton of other people that have been in that position ended up walking out empty-handed. People get confused where to vote. The only counter arguement is that Morgan is such a given for supporting that Foxx's nom won't really even be considered there, and everyone will throw it in Ray lead.

Downfall has stornger reviews than The Sea Inside over at RT, which is largely what I made the call on. 91% to 78%. 78 is pretty low for an import. People are really uncomfortable with euthanasia today and if the academy votes for it, will it be considered political statement (the same arguement people attacked M$B on)? They'll play it safe and go with the easy selection. Its pretty much between those two though. Nothing else is in the running.



I'm glad you all liked the preview though, it was just meant to be a fun and light read!


BKB, its supposed to be an opinion piece, so yeah, there's an authorship aspect to it. Oh well. Please just leave me alone. Thanks.




I try..... :wink:


Coincidentally, I managed to write the whole thing in order to further procrastinate from doing my homework too.


Mav. Yeah, Everyone kept saying it was between Benning and Swank, but considering how little I hear about Benning, I doubt that's the case. Its between Winslet and Swank. Read my above post about why Swank might lose out.

Your analyses of Best Pic/ Best Director split is true, but I think its more likely to go with Eastwood directing and Aviator getting best pic. The production value and huge ensemble cast. It had about seven or eight big stars in it I think. I don't know, this year is remarkable tough to call though...Lets see how far off the mark I am. Some of you might have hit closer on the target blindfolded actually.

In that category only those are allowed to vote who have seen all five nominees, so it doesn't matter how many have seen it...the voters will have seen both.