Last time Swank and Benning were in contention with one another, Bening won the SAG. I expect Swank to take it this time, but Kate Winslet could still pull an upset at SAG.

I don't see how 3 time nominee Benning could be considered overdue and 4 time nominee Winslet is considered "somewhat overdue". It's not just Rod echoing this, it's everybody. It's a little twisted. In my view Winslet has turned in many more amazing performances than Benning ever has.

I still think Swank is going to win though. Records are made to be broken and Annette just isn't ready to win for this. There is too much of a weird heat around Million Dollar Baby and people rumbling that Swank is really the better performance (I should note that I've seen all the performances except Being Julia and Vera Drake because I can't seem to find them playing anywhere). I think Hilary Swank is proving herself to be one of the greatest female actresses of this generation... and AMPAS helped open the world to her.

To me it is similar to Marisa Tomei, who won for My Cousin Vinny and people made fun of her for years until she did In The Bedroom and people suddenly were like, "Okay, we see what you mean".

That she appears understated, humble, and the focus stays on her acting and not her personal life is great.

I agree, actually, but that seems to be the consensus. I guess since many feel her performance in American Beauty was superb, which is true to a certain extent. If it were up to me, I WOULD probably give it to Winslet. Not only is she overdue, which she is, but her performance in Eternal Sunshine is definitely worthy, which I'm not sure is the case for Benning.

I just hope that if Winslet loses for the fourth time, they don't jsut give her an award for whatever she does next, even if its not worthy. Thankfully, is she happens to be nominated next year she'd be likely up against Julianne Moore, another 4-time loser.

Having just seen Vera Drake, I found that Imelda Staunton gives a really showy performance, one that sticks out at you as much as Jamie Foxx in Ray. This type of in-your-face emotional acting isn't easily forgotten. I don't think many people who actually watched this movie will be choosing someone else. Her chance really depends on the number of voters who see this movie. Boys Don't Cry was a really small movie in 1999 and pulled off the acting win, so I think this has a chance too.

The race is so between Imelda and Hilary, with Annette a distant third.

I would like to see the two Kate/Cates win this year....Winslet and Blanchett. Bening and Winslet both have that 'overdue' thing going for them, but Bening is quite a bit older. Her chances in the future are slimmer than Winslet's. I did read Bening has decided to finally start campaigning. If she's gotten this far w/o a push (besides NBR) she could make some serious headway against Swank.

Spoilers

With Jamie Foxx probably winning best actor, not only for his uncanny performance, but due to voter sentiment because of Ray Charles just dying, I wonder if Hillary Swank will get any of that sentiment as well, since her life in the movie mirrors what happened to Christopher Reeve, who not only just died, but was a fellow actor, and might have been an academy member.

Why are all the performances that Benning seems to get nominated for ones where she is so unlikable (American Beauty and ESPECIALLY Being Julia). Being Julia was campy, over-the-top, mediocre, and Benning was in no way, shape or form tolerable in it. This is one of the most confusing frontrunners for the Oscars I've ever seen. Hasn't it been doing pretty bad box office buisness too? No way it clears 7 million total, unless the world is EVIL and she wins the Oscar.

Again, you mention something that never crossed my mind. While it's an interesting point, I honestly don't think too many members will have that on their mind. Plus, M$B is not about paralyzed victims, it's about character. If that was the case, they would've nominated Javier Bardem.

At this point, I really don't know who is going to win.

I have been convinced Annette Benning was going to win, but now I'm not too sure.

Hillary could win
Imelda could win
Kate could win too.

Annette Benning can win because of her career status, alot of people think she was due and just the fact that it's her and Swank up again after bringing in a brilliant performance in American Beauty they might give it to her. She is till my choice, but I'm less sure of it. And being one of the few that have seen the movie, the role fits her and she does a great job, not the very best, but in my own top 5 picks of the year. Also, some might consider this as a comeback for her after taking a bit of hiatus.

Hillary Swank: You know, though everyone seems to be pitting her a favorite to win, I'm having the hardest time thinking why?? she isn't due and is the only one out of the three women who have won one before. the biggest reason she could win is if her performance is so memorable and groundbreaking that they want to give it to her again. BUT that role is taken up by Staunton this year and her performance, which will compromise this thought process. The only other way she will win is a consolation prize for M$B, but even that Morgan can carry on his own (is it so happens that Baby doesn't win anything else). I most certainly don't think, though, that people are deliberately not going to vote for her because she's not ready to be in that 2+ win bracket. A few will, but saying she'll lose out because of that is bull. I just don't think there is a universal consensus that her performance is the best of the year like there is for FOxx, far from it.

Imelda Staunton: I agree that those who have seen her are going to find it hard to resist doing the right thing and voting for her because she does, in my opinion, deliver the best performance of the year. However the movie really is small and the problem with her is goign to be how many people see her performance and even after they see it if they will not give in to their 'Oscar-ways' and actually do vote for her.

Kate Winslet: Because I think Imelda is too small of a contender (Sandino has no chance period) and Swank and Bannign will be duking it out with voters, they might split the vote and give the advantage to Kate Winslet. In fact, she is now my favorite to win. She is more due than Benning, though many other may not see it, but then again she IS young, under 30 and still has a whole career ahead of herself. Plus, her win could be the consolation prize for Eternal Sunshine fo the Spotless Mind.

Vera Drake has done bad business at the box office as well. Maria Full Of Grace wasn't exactly a blockbuster either. One advantage Bening has is that she's playing an actress. Many times the Academy goes for that.

Well, it's not too long unti the Oscars and I thought I'd bump this one for last discussions.

I still stick with Swank not winning.