This is another major category that might get quite competitive this year with no clear favorite so far. Vera Drake is getting strong reviews as of now, so a nomination for Imelda Staunton is close to a lock...

The Upside of Anger's move to next year brings Joan Allen out of the race.

My momentary predictions (winner in bold):

Annette Benning (Being Julia)
Julia Roberts (Closer)
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind)
Uma Thurman (Kill Bill Vol. 2)

I think this category is wide open this year. Here's my current predictions.

Lock:

1. Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake) The frontrunner at this point, but I don't think she'll end up winning.

Near Lock:

2. Annette Bening (Being Julia) Small movie, but sounds like a big performance from a great actress.

From here on, it's anyone's game, but my guesses are....

3. Kate Winslett (Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind)
4. Audrey Tatou (A Very Long Engagement)
5. Julia Roberts/Natalie Portman (Closer) Depends on who's lead.

Julia Roberts (Closer)
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Audrey Tatou - A Very Long Engagement
Uma Thurman (Kill Bill Vol. 2)
Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind)

I doubt Imelda will win. You have to go back all the way to Marlee Matlin in 86 and Geraldine Page in 85 to find a non "leading lady" winning Best Actress.

From 86 to last year, it reads like a who's who in acting or next brightest hot star. Beyond 85, you have to reach deep into the 70's to find another Imelda winning the Oscar.

Not to say it can't happen, I just highly doubt it.

Hilary Swank wasn't really the "next brightest hot star", hehe.

But by giving her the Oscar, it "cemented the opportunity", even though she's wasted it on films like The Core. :wink:

By giving Imelda the Oscar, it would go against everything the AMPAS has done in this categorey for nearly the past 20 years. Unlike BP, the acting categories seem to have stricter codes about who will win.

Imelda won't win. That's almost a sure bet. She should be happy with a BAFTA win and perhaps a Globe (unless the universal Best Actress isn't in a Comedy/Musical).

The ONLY thing that makes me think that Imelda won't win is that I predict Javier Bardem to win for Mar Adentro and I just don't see the Academy giving both lead Oscars to relatively unknown thespians.

Speaking of Swank, she could very well win for Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby. Playing a female boxer in his film could be her key to winning a pair of Best Acting statues within 6 years.

BTW, there's no way Javier Bardem will win. It's a three way tie between Foxx, Depp, and Neeson.

You mean just like there was this tie between Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson back in 2003?

Foxx - nope, the Academy will not reward another African American actor that soon after Denzel.

Neeson - The movie will be too small.

Depp - the only real competitor, but might not even end up getting nominated.


Bardem is supposed to be the best Spanish actor at the moment, his movie is a total oscar bait that will probably get nominated for Best Picture and will surely win Best Foreign Movie. Besides that he has already been nominated for Before Night Falls.

I know not of that tie. Only refer to things I talk about, you'll learn that I'm an Oscar wiz. :wink:

If Neeson's film is too small, then what praytell, is Bardem's film? Titanic?

Seriously though, everyone knows Depp will get nominated. And Foxx will too. Denzel is old news, if Foxx wins, he wins. It's a biopic for christsake, a white person couldn't play Ray Charles.

I feel bad tearing apart your picks. BP, Best Actress, Best Actor... :wink:

Bardem's film is getting way better buzz than Neeson's and come on, you know that Mar Adentro is stuff that oscars are made of. A story of human dignity and the power of will. It also has a handicapped person in it, played by Bardem.

A white person couldn't have played Ruben "Hurricane" Carter as well, whose story is not in the least less touching than Ray Chalres' and yet, Denzel did not get an oscar for that.

And as for Depp, don't be too overly optimistic.

Hehe, don't. In the end, the truth will show itself anyway

Would you consider Jessica Tandy "the next big star" because she has been around for quite some time before that.

NOT AT ALL

But, if you want to quote my post, I also mentioned the AMPAS likes to award the who's who in acting as well. :wink:

lol, I didn't see that part.

Annette Benning "Being Julia"
Nicole Kidman "Dogville"
Julia Roberts "Closer"
Imelda Staunton "Vera Drake"
Kate Winslet "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

They are my five picks so far for nominations even though I think Uma may have a shot for Kill Bill 2.

Current Predictions
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Julia Roberts, Closer
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. 2
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

All I'm hoping for is that Uma gets a nomination, she fully deserves one.

AMEN!

It would be the biggest snub in movie history if she didn't get nominated!

Annette Benning (Being Julia)
Scarlett Johansson (A Love Story for Bobby Long)
Diane Lane (Fierce People)
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind)

I read somewhere that Fierce People has been moved to 2005. Who would you replace Diane Lane with?

I think Imelda Staunton is a lock..Annete Bening has a really good chance at a nom, but maybe not a chance for a win... I have to say that I disagree with the Uma Thurman nom and I don't think it will happen and while Finding Neverland is good, it's not because of Kate Winslet and I think it would be a true waste if she gets nominated. On the other hand, I'd love the actress from Maria Full of Grace to pull a "Whale Rider" this year. I think there's one or two performance that we still haven't seen that may deserve nominations. (I'm guessing that they'll go for a Supporting Actress for Virginia Madsen of Sideways)

Potetial Nominees

Uma thurman, (KB2) (i hope she wins)
Renee Zellweger (Cinderella Man)
Kate Winslet (Neverland)
Cate Blanchet (The Aviator) (she's amazing)
Angelina Jolie (alexander)

Cinderella Man won't be released until 2005. Also, Winslet, Blanchett, and Jolie are more likely to be in the supporting actress category.