The Best Actor Race: December 05, 2004

the Top Contenders...

1. Jamie Foxx: the undisputed front-runner (except maybe by Dr. Lecter) for a nod and a win. The favorite and the best yet. I won't even waste time since he is the surest thing for a nod.

2. Leonardo DiCaprio: yes, I truly think he will get in the rce for the first time. Through the years I think he's been trying to prove himself and with this movie I think he's there! Some rave reviews have mentioned how he has gotten Hughes down and has delivered his best performance yet. the only problem he might have is being too over the top, but in this strong race, I am now placing him in the tops of the category.

3. Liam Nesson: Huge buzz, more for him I think than for the movie, or maybe just about equal. If it were up to me, he wouldn't be in the top5 of the year; I thought he was good but not good enough to get here. But yo can't argue with what's right there: the buzz and the critics, plus I'm sure he has the academy already on his side from previous win.

Next in Line...

4. Johnny Depp: I would rank him even below Nesson this year, but again he has been getting rave reviews (which I don't quite understand) and the buzz is building the most for this one for films already in release! There is a chance he might miss out, but if Neverland continues like it has started in the awards season, he should have no problem getting in.

5. Clint Eastwood: I think he will miss out on the director nod. I think Million Dollar Baby will be the traditional best pic nominee without a best actor accompaniment (wow, is that even a word?). Clint is now in the fierce running for a Best Actor nod and boy does he have the academy on his side! The buzz just keeps on building, the most for a film not yet in release!

6. Javier Bardem: the movie isn't released her yet and I never had faith in this film in any place other than foreign Film, but he is on this list mainly because of word of mouth from those who have seen it and critics raves. I think the reason why he may just miss out is the problem the Academy is having with foreign movies this year: Alot of people are complaining that because of their debated rules, many of the year's best film, foreign, have been excluded from the race. this way, they might tryto spread a little of the foreign influence into the mainstream categories like they did with Talk to Her and City of God in years past. Now the Sea Inside IS elligible and is a shoe-in for a win, so why waste more votes on a film that is already just about guaranteed something. then again, if his performance is something uqite out of the ordinary, it might actually get in based on merit.... my triple groupings i this post mean the 3 actors in each category are interchangeable and that fall most importantly in the second set, where we have a #5 and a #6.... so I'm not saying he's out, he's very much in the race...
there is also a possibility he might lose to Bernal (#8) because the academy might give Bad Education this high profile spot since The Sea Within knocked it out of the Foreign Feature running.

In the Distance....

7. Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda : He will have to turn in something rather extraordinary to get in this tight race.

8. Gael Garcia Bernal, Bad Education : he could get in because of the foreign mess, they might reward Bad Education with a Best Actor foreign nod and at the same time reward Bernal for Motorcycle Diaries.

9. Jude Law, Closer : I think he gave the best of the four and he has been in so many movies. Plus, I think the academy has a thing for him.... a nod for cold Mountain when they failed to nominated Kidman?? He's very much outside the race, but there is still possibility.... having all his costars get nominated might improve his chances.

10. Paul Giamatti. Sideways : Just to make up for American Splendor and please alot of indie fanboys! :wink:

I'm surprised nobody mentioned Jeff Bridges. He definitely has a better chance than Gael Garcia Bernal and Jude Law.

I think it's down to this 10 great actors:

1. Jamie Foxx (Ray)
2. Leondaro DiCaprio (The Aviator)
3. Liam Neeson (Kinsey)
4. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
5. Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside)
6. Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
7. Jeff Bridges (Door in the Floor)
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways)
9. Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
10. Kevin Bacon (The Woodsman)

It's just that Bridges, Law and Bernal all have an equal chance...which is none. Door in the Floor was too long ago and I don't see how the Academy would snub anyone from your TOP 6 and get Bridges nominated.

However, I think that Cheadle has a great shot. Hotel Rwanda might become this year's The Pianist and the actor is a pretty undrrated one so far. The movie might get him a nom replacing Depp or Dicaprio...

Actually,

Johnny Depp truly deserves the buzz. It's definitely a more subtle role that most actors would have trouble pulling off. The thing is, Depp perfected J.M. Barrie (According to the documents) and pulled off something that most actors wouldn't dare. Frankly, the Academy almost ALWAYS gives the award to a dramatic actor who's suffering through something or an audacious and bold performance (Penn, Crowe, Washington, Theron, Kidman, Berry) and never to anything modest that makes the movie.

*sigh*

It's the same with Pirates, except people don't realize it. Without Depp, Finding Neverland would have been a piece of moldy cheese. Try reading the screenplay over.

I just find it hard to believe, Raffiki, that you like the smaller, independent films that don't go mainstream and try to yank every last tear out of you (A Beautiful Mind, etc) yet you can't appreciate a modest, small performance that essentially made the film. Depp deserves the nomination - he's always pulled off every role. Look at his roles! He's tackled almost everything, from a director to a druggy on a road trip to a lone white man in the middle of nowhere to a pirate to a creature...

I find it somewhat funny that Tom Cruise always end up missing out on a nomination, or win, or something, because a supporting character end up overshadowing his performance (Last Samurai, Jerry Maguire, and now Collateral, though it's not a sure thing he'll miss out).


I think this year's nominations will be one of the most surprising in recent memory.

But maybe I'm jsut saying that cause I'm tired of trying to predict and everything not quite making sense this year :wink:

Yeah, I'm having a crappy year as well. I just don't care about any one of the nominees :? Even if Eternal Sunshine was in there I don't know if I could be passionate about it, everything is just so *blah* this year. If something weird happened then it might be a little more interesting, but as far as the Oscars, I'm much more paranoid about Harry Potter winning/being nominated for Cinematography/Score/Art Direction than I am about whether or not Hotel Rwanda can get a Best Picture nom.

First off, I think Johnny Depp is one of the best, most versatile actors alive.
He is defintely one of my favorite actors and is nothing short of astonishing for how he transforms into his roles.

Now.... I thought he was fantastic in Finding Neverland. But I was a bit overwhelmed because of the strong buzz he had been recieving. It was not better than his performance last year and that's partly because I think that role was a bit harder to pull off and because the screenplay didn't give him much to do in this one, not to mention KAte Winslet overshined a bit.

I actually have to admit it's not fair of me to say his performance is not worthy of the top 5 of the year because I haven't seen all the other performances. I think he will get in the top 5, regardless of what I think.

I do agree that Neverland would not have been as good if Depp was nto in it, but you must also understand, I was overall disappointed or extremely underwhelmed by Neverland. I liked it, I gave it a B, but I did not love and that I can safely say is far from the ten best of the year, according to me. That also contributes to lessening Depp's quality of performance. I'm not saying he wasn't great, I'm saying he may not be good enough this year, compared to the others, because this might be one of the tightest and most competitive Best Actor races in history!

I think, it is chaping up now to be....

Jamie Foxx
Leonardo DiCaprio
Liam Nesson (also underwhelmed by his performance)
Clint Eastwood
Johnny Depp

Depp does deserve consideration for a nomination...

...but he is ALWAYS brilliant even in horrible movies and there are a lot of other actors this year who have given brilliant performances and really surprised me this year and streched themselves beyond the boundries of their stereotypical role.

Depp's is just another on a long string of great roles, it's like Meryl Streep in a way. So you find yourself awarding them for taking huge risks and chances (like Ed Wood, Jack Sparrow).

To that end, I'd much rather see Jim Carrey, Tom Cruise, Bill Murray, etc. nominated than Depp.

I wouldn't mind seeing Depp with a statue, but giving Depp a statue would be giving him a lifetime achievement award in my view, and a consolation prize for losing last year when his performance was the bravest of the bunch.

I think that considering his omission from all major awards, Clint Eastwood is pretty much out of the race.

As of now it comes down to these 7:

Don Cheadle
Johnny Depp
Javier Bardem
Liam Neeson
Paul Giamatti
Leonardo DiCaprio
Jamie Foxx

I have a feeling that DiCaprio and Giamatti will be snubbed.

There is no way DiCaprio will miss out on a nomination.
Not only is he constant Oscar fodder (even if he misses out), his performance is right up there with Jamie Foxx. At this point, I'll be honest, I don't know who gave the better performance Leo or Jamie!

Don't count Eastwood out. This is the Academy... this is his turf, not the spazzled golden Globes. His work in the last couple of decades has been more arsty, but Oscar artsy at that, and less showy which other awards go for.
At this point, he's far from a lock and probably just outside looking in, but I wouldn't count him out. He gave a strong performance.

Paul Giamatti might be his big threat because normally I wouldn't think Giamatti would get in with a race as we have this year; but just the fact that all the performances are heavy drama, he might easily get in there as the one light-weight contender and Sideways itself has the buzz and the weight in awards to back him up!

Foxx and DiCaprio are locks....

Next up:

I don't know what to say about Nesson; he was strong and the front-runner a month back (or runner up) just as Kinsey was.... but now Kinsey has fallen way behind... has Nesson? I, personally didn't think his performance was anything extraordinary, so he might actually miss out.

don Cheadle I was ALWAYS iffy about, but now I'm thinking he might defintely get in.... Rwanda is picking up buzz... even if it's not alot of buzz (remember the movie hasn't even come out and it's independent) it has has NO negative buzz WHATSOEVER!!

Javier Bardem.... The Sea Inside is shaping up to be a disappointment at the box office and Javier Bardem doesn't have much buzz in the U.S. Out of all the actors in the race, this is the one I ahve the hardest time seeing.... ALWAYS... if Giamatti and Eastwood both miss out, then I'd guarantee him a spot.

Johnny Depp: I actually think his nod last year might hurt his chances of a nod this year. Everyone knows they're not gonna vote for him to win... or at least most voters aren't and that's why they might refrain from even giving him the nomination vote and give it to someone worthier. Because he got the nod last year and he has no shot of the win this year, they might ignore him and I think that might really happen. Then again, if the Academy disappoints me and goes with Neverland in the Best Picture category and director, then they might as well nominate Depp too!

Possibilities....

(if they go really light-weight)
Jamie Foxx
Leonardo DiCaprio
Paul Giamatti
Johnny Depp
Liam Nesson


(if they go strictly heavyweight drama)
Jamie Foxx
Leonardo DiCaprio
Javier Bardem
Don Cheadle
clint Eastwood

If they go with a mix of both (which is most probable) then there are a dozen combinations!

Just because Clint Eastwood hasn't received any critics' awards doesn't mean he won't get nominated. Ed Harris didn't received anything, not even GG or SAG nominations before his Oscar nomination for Pollack. The same was true for his co-star Marcia Gay Harden and she went on to win best supporting actress. While I don't think his nomination for acting is a sure thing, it's a strong possibility. His performance totally destroys whatever tiny chance Jeff Bridges may have had for the 'career-rewarding performance for an older actor' slot.

My current predictions:

1. Jamie Fox - Ray
2. Leonardo Dicaprio - The Aviator
3. Liam Neeson - Kinsey
4. Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
5. Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Alternates: Javier Bardeam and Clint Eatswood

Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Jamie Foxx - Ray
Paul Giamatti - Sideways

My guess:

Jamie Foxx - Ray
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Jim Carrey - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Paul Giamatti - Sideways


I have this feeling Don Cheadle could win.. but for now I'm predicting DiCaprio.

Cheadle gets in for sure, i saw the movie today and he deserves a spot. If dicaprio gets a nod for aviator, that's enough. he hasn't had much presence in the Oscars and is going to have to content himself with the nod. He won't get it over Cheadle. Depp might not even get a nod, I found the acting very restrained in neverland as far as the two leads go, and if someone gets dropped, despite out love and knowledge that he should have won last year, he won't make the list this time around. Murray is a no go judging by the reviews for Aquatic, which are still rotten over at RT. The movie has not been that well recieved. I think Foxx will get something this year, but I'm not sure if it will be a best supporting for collateral or best for Ray. I have seen neither yet so won't make the call yet.

I still don't know about Dicaprio, I can honestly say looking over the lists that we now have our official first sure thing and that's going to be Cheadle for Rwanda. They will also sneak in Sophie Okonedo in either lead actress or more likely supporting actress as well.

Dolce, you think Cheadle is for sure but Foxx isn't? I think he's almost a lock for the win. Here are my current predix:

Jaime Foxx-Ray
Liam Neeson-Kinsey
Don Cheadle-Hotel Rwanda
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Aviator
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland

Alts: Paul Giamatti - Sideways, Javier Bardeam-The Sea Inside, Clint Eastwood-Million Dollar Baby

Unless Kinsey gets some sort of revivial in its mini-expansion Christmas day, then Liam Nesson is as good as dead in the race!

I am really starting to think Foxx will be a double nominee.

DiCaprio is most surely in the race and not just as a nominee. I don't know how you can see The Aviator and not be amazed by his performance. He has finally shown his acting abilities and they are magnificent. the Oscar is going to come down to Foxx or DiCaprio portraying two so truly and deeply felt icons.

Don Cheadle has a good chance to get in.
I really think it's gonna be Paul Giamatti or Johnny Depp and I think Giamatti might win out (but for some reason I just can't shake off Depp even if I personally think he isn't in the 5 best of the year)
And the last spot I think will go to either Bardem or Eastwood and it's a real toss up there. I would give Bardem maybe the slightest of all edges!

I just wanted to say a couple of things:

I think Leonardo DiCaprio is a LOCK. He's been cut out too many times now, and I think with all of the buzz around The Aviator, he's in for sure. Not to mention he does pull off a great performance, and he plays a man who is obsessive compulsive and in the end develops some mental problems, and you just know the Academy LOVES guys with mental problems.

And I don't think Don Cheadle is a sure bet as everyone says. It seems to me that it's the film itself and it's subject matter that is what is garnering Hotel Rwanda most of it's attention, not solely Don Cheadle's performance (don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay his performance at all). I just think with the rest of the choices out there, he should not be classified as a "sure bet", because there are others I would place over him right now (granted I haven't seen the film, but just from general knowledge of the awards season, I would).

PEACE, Mike

I disagree, i read the Time-Out review today and it only spoke about Cheadle and really didn't mention the movie so much at all. It pretty much said he's always been confined to secondary roles like Devil in a Blue Dress and ensemble pieces like Boogie Nights and Ocean's 11 and that Time-Out was sooo happy to finally see him moving front and center.

Tricky tricky. i was no so won over by Leo in aviator, and he's the producer etc, so I don't know how they take that.

I am still not assured by DiCaprio, but he might slip in, indeeed.

I think that while Don Cheadle is not a lock, he is by all means close to it. He is portraying a true life hero and the movie is getting very good reviews (88% at RT), most of them praising his performance. This actor went too long unnoticed and underrated, it is time for him to be awarded.

Good contendors:

Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Jamie Foxx - Ray
Paul Giamatti - Sideways
Liam Neeson - Kinsey
Javier Bardem - The Sea Inside

Plus there is always that possible surprise of a non-expected nominee that occurs a lot of the times. So, there are other possibilities like Kevin Kline or Jim Carrey or another.

Like I said, I just don't think he has gotten the attention or
stands out enough to be cast as a sure bet as everyone has, and I don't think he fares well when there is already a strong lineup. Not to
mention there is already an African-American that will more likely be
nominated (Jamie Foxx) and like it or not, I don't think the Academy
will nominate two African-Americans in the same category. It sounds
harsh, but it's true. They hardly even nominate African-Americans,
period.

Anyways, that's just my opinion, like I said. We'll see what happens.

PEACE, Mike

I strongly disagree with that....

Before anything.... I don't think nowadays The Academy looks at acting nominations with whether or not there is an African American running. sure, everything plays into politics, but no, I think race is a minimal factor.
Second, past Oscar history with African American nominations is almost entirely due to casting of African Americans in serious Oscar bate films or quality dramas/comedies and not to the nomination process. I do talk moreso of the last 2 decades than any other time-frame.

And if ANYTHING that affaects the race, racial politics wise, it will be in favor of 2 Africn Americans.

The African American campaign and propoganda in 2001 Oscars showed that The Academy has nothing against awarding African Americans by its strongest means.... giving in to an African American year... just like last year was LOTR year.

I agree with that. Moreover, Hotel Rwanda started appearing on more TOP 10 lists of critics and stands at 90% at RT at the moment, becoming one of the year's best-reviewed movies. A nomination is getting more and more likely..I think that Don Cheadle looks as a better bet at the moment as Javier Bardem, Liam Neeson and Johnny Depp.

Hey, you can disagree all you want, but I'm just looking at it from a realistic, historic standpoint. It's not always politics, but just subconsciously. You're being incredibly ignorant to say that there have never, ever been African-American actors in good roles that are worthy of being nominated before. That's ridiculous.

So, I don't think two African-American's will be nominated in the same category. I think it's either Jamie Foxx or Don Cheadle, and I believe Foxx has the edge. I would love to be wrong, but it's just my prediction. What I think will truly happen here and how the Academy will vote.

We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong, and both Foxx and Cheadle are nominated (that would be awesome), then all the power to you.

PEACE, Mike

Well, then Mike, I guess we just disagree on that issue. And I don't mind, we'll just have to wait till the nominations come out.

But I want to make one thing clear... It's that I never stated nor implied than African Americans never ever had good Oscar roles. I was trying to argue that African Americans not being nominated had more to do with casting them in quality movies (of which some were, but not alot) and also the number of African American actors versus White than the Academy having these roles to choose from and always not selecting African Americans. All I was implying is that you can't take that history as such a substantial piece of evidence because of the circumstances back then and now!

Ah, okay, I get what you were trying to say now. I still disagree, but you have a point there.

I just wanted to take this time to say Raffiki that even though we disagree on this one issue, I find I agree with you 99% of the time with your comments towards the Oscars and such. Sometimes you take exactly what I am thinking and write it down, it's amazing. Really, that's exactly how I feel. So keep inputting your opinion.

Oh, and your english has gotten superbly better over time. What's your nationality, again?

PEACE, Mike