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Atoddr
Veteran
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:07 am
Posts: 3014
Location: Kansai
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I doubt anyone in their sane mind would think that Peter Jackson didn't deserve his Oscar (I'm sure a few on these boards might argue that) but if Eastwood gets two director nominations in a row and two picture noms in a row, people will feel he's due in some way. However. Scorsese is more overdue having never won. Eastwood may have to settle for his actors winning like he did with Mystic River. An UPSET can always happen however.
As for Hotel Rwanda, I'm thinking it's going to have to settle for an actor nomination for Don Chealde and maybe nothing else.
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| Thu Jan 06, 2005 10:26 pm |
 
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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I agree that Eastwood definitely wasn't snubbed for Best Director last year. A few directors have ever deserved an award as much as Jackson did for the Lord of the Rings Trilogy.
As for the film, well, it is subject to argue, but I think that ROTK was by far and away the best film nominated last year.
As for this year, I am absolutely certain that The Aviator will win Best Picture.
However, I fear, there is a 10% chance that Scorcese will be snubbed yet again in favor of Payne or Eastwood.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 07, 2005 1:10 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Dr. Lecter wrote: I agree that Eastwood definitely wasn't snubbed for Best Director last year. A few directors have ever deserved an award as much as Jackson did for the Lord of the Rings Trilogy.
As for the film, well, it is subject to argue, but I think that ROTK was by far and away the best film nominated last year.
As for this year, I am absolutely certain that The Aviator will win Best Picture.
However, I fear, there is a 10% chance that Scorcese will be snubbed yet again in favor of Payne or Eastwood. I really think everyone's grasping at the fact that The Aviator seemed like a lock to win a long time ago now. It just seems like Million Dollar Baby or even Sideways have a great chance of grabbing it to me.
I guess we shall we see.
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| Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:58 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Libs wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I agree that Eastwood definitely wasn't snubbed for Best Director last year. A few directors have ever deserved an award as much as Jackson did for the Lord of the Rings Trilogy.
As for the film, well, it is subject to argue, but I think that ROTK was by far and away the best film nominated last year.
As for this year, I am absolutely certain that The Aviator will win Best Picture.
However, I fear, there is a 10% chance that Scorcese will be snubbed yet again in favor of Payne or Eastwood. I really think everyone's grasping at the fact that The Aviator seemed like a lock to win a long time ago now. It just seems like Million Dollar Baby or even Sideways have a great chance of grabbing it to me. I guess we shall we see. Well, the thing is that The Aviator IS actually getting not much less support than MDB and Sideways. Well, okay, to be fair, Sideways is doing better so far, but honestly, when was the last time that a film like Sideways won? It is a bit too quirky and, um, "unimportant" to win. All that is paired with a rather small box-office gross.
As for Million Dollar Baby, well, The Aviator was mentioned in more critics' TOP 10s, The Aviator has a 89% score at RT (not too far from MDB's 94%) and also has the box-office gross going for it. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:38 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Libs wrote: I really think everyone's grasping at the fact that The Aviator seemed like a lock to win a long time ago now. Usually Best Picture is not much of a competition. Everybody knew at this point that King would win, that Beautiful Mind would win, that Chicago would win, etc. There was that whole Shakespeare in Love thing but honestly the big award of the night is not really the one people are usually shocked by. This is why we were all so excited for The Pianist, because it almost beat the sure-thing. Libs wrote: I really think everyone's grasping at the fact that The Aviator seemed like a lock to win a long time ago now. It just seems like Million Dollar Baby or even Sideways have a great chance of grabbing it to me. If Scorsese loses to Eastwood (who is probably a distant second in my book) it will be the third... yes third... time he's lost to an actor turned director...
Robert Redford - Ordinary People beat out Raging Bull
Kevin Costner - Dances with Wolves, beat out Goodfellas
Scorsese won't lose to Eastwood though, because the evil demons that live inside Scorsese's mind will consume the Kodiak Theater in a fireball of damnation. He of course, hasn't (in my mind) deserved the award since Raging Bull anyway, and didn't even deserve to be nominated for Gangs of New York.
The techs seem to like The Aviator though and the stars are lining up for it's arrival. Unless Roger Ebert is going to insert mind-control devices in the minds of the Academy members, there is no reason to think that the Academy won't go for the incredible well put together, middle of the road (not dark like MDB or arty like Sideways) Aviator.
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| Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:53 pm |
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Dkmuto
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6502
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An interesting article on the actual procedure for determining nominees (based on vote tabulations and such):
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/09/movie ... O/tZFmQ9yw
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:23 am |
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Riggs
We had our time together
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:36 am
Posts: 13270
Location: Vienna
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I still believe Eternal Sunshine has a good chance to win. :wink:
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:17 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Riggs27 wrote: I still believe Eternal Sunshine has a good chance to win. :wink: Wishful thinking  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 2:49 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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After readin that article and the one in Entertainment Weekly about nomination tabulation, I must concede....
I actually think Eternal Sunshine has a big shot at getting nominated.
I have narrowed my predictions to this....
1. Sideways
2. Million Dollar Baby
3. Aviator
4. Finding Neverland
5th slot:
Ray
Eternal Sunshine
Hotel Rwanda
off chance, but only possibilities left: Fahrenheit 9/11 and Kinsey
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:19 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Raffiki wrote: After readin that article and the one in Entertainment Weekly about nomination tabulation, I must concede....
I actually think Eternal Sunshine has a big shot at getting nominated.
I have narrowed my predictions to this....
1. Sideways
2. Million Dollar Baby
3. Aviator
4. Finding Neverland
5th slot:
Ray
Eternal Sunshine
Hotel Rwanda
off chance, but only possibilities left: Fahrenheit 9/11 and Kinsey Well, if you include Kinsey, then Closer should be in it as well _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:20 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:37 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:38 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? Erm 
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:47 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Libs wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? Erm I hope you know it was hypothetically speaking  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:49 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Raffiki wrote: December 08, 2004
1. The Aviator (=)
2. Million Dollar Baby (+2)
3. Finding Neverland (-1)
4. Sideways (+2)
5. Closer (-2)
6. Phantom of the Opera (+1)
7. Ray (-2)
8. Hotel Rwanda (=)
9. Kinsey (=)
10. Spanglish (+5)
11. the Passion of the Christ (-1)
12. A Very Long Engagement (+2)
13. Fahrenheit 9/11 (+3)
14. Vera Drake (-1)
15. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (-3)
Dropped: The Sea Inside (-5) because it is just politically wise and common sense to think such a lock for Foreign Film won't garner much support for Best Picture.
Other significant changes...
Eternal sunshine: it was climbing in my mind, but now it's completely dead since I think Spanglish is actually gaining (something I never thought I'd say) in the race.
Fahrnheit 9/11 is moving up because Moore is making it very public he's aiming for that Best Actor nod. Of course tou could tell how much I think he's gonna get there by placing it at #13, but it is buzz and it is momentum!
Spanglish: I just don't know, a chord struck me today and I finally saw what so many people were saying about its chances, it looks to be more than the average rom-com-drama.
Million dollar Baby has almost permanently replaced Closer and because both are character pieces, Closer is moving fast out of the top 5! Other notable changes are ideways solidiying its top 5 status for now and Ray dropping out of my top 5! About a month later....
1. The Aviator (=)
2. Sideways (+2)
3. Million Dollar Baby (-1)
4. Finding Neverland (-1)
5. Ray (+2)
6. Eternal Sunshine (+9)
7. Hotel Rwanda (+1)
8. Kinsey (+1)
9. Fahrenheit 9/11 (+4)
10. Closer (-5)
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:18 pm |
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are-why-a-en
MISSING IN ACTION
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2004 7:42 pm
Posts: 4292
Location: The Beautiful Islands of San Diego
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I really see the Final 5 coming down to this:
Sideways
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless mind
Hotel Rwanda<<<I think this will pull a late late campaign and may end up a front runner to win....aka...Moulin Rouge? The Pianist?
Subject to change though....
But I think, regardless of what pulls a late winning streak, it will come down to Sideways, and The Aviator, and Million Dollar Baby will have a slight chance, though I think its just a front runner for alot of nominations, but not alot of wins.
...just my opinion.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 2:17 am |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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I think it's damn near impossible to have both Sunshine and Rwanda nominated.
I think everyone's predictions are gonna come out to the following, cuz when it comes down to it, it's the safest bet there is....
Aviator
Million $ Baby
Neverland
Ray
Sideways
_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 2:27 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Ray
Nope, still not convinced Neverland will get a nomination. Or maybe I'm just praying.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 2:53 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Finding Neverland is more of a lock than Ray at this point. Look at the precursor awards FN has received objectively, and one can hardly find evidence against it: NBR, Golden Globe, AFI Top 10, BFCA, PGA, DGA.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 3:51 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? Nominations are turned in 2 days before the Golden Globe wins. Golden Globes wins have no imact on Oscar nominations.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:45 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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andaroo wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? Nominations are turned in 2 days before the Golden Globe wins. Golden Globes wins have no imact on Oscar nominations. That's not the point. It's what might reflect the thinking of the Academy members. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 12:23 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Dr. Lecter wrote: andaroo wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? Nominations are turned in 2 days before the Golden Globe wins. Golden Globes wins have no imact on Oscar nominations. That's not the point. It's what might reflect the thinking of the Academy members. But you were asking if I would change what I thought the nominees what would be, so your original point doesn't really connect.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:25 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Libs wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: andaroo wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: My absolute, final predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways Which you won't change even if Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine win the Golden Globes? Nominations are turned in 2 days before the Golden Globe wins. Golden Globes wins have no imact on Oscar nominations. That's not the point. It's what might reflect the thinking of the Academy members. But you were asking if I would change what I thought the nominees what would be, so your original point doesn't really connect. I don't think you're getting what I meant. IF Hotel Rwanda dn Eternal Sunshine win Golden Globe, then one'd think that there is actually a good chance that the Academy members thought the same way and voted one of them (or both) as a Best Picture nomination. It's not like we are going to find out what the Oscar noms are until the end of the month, no matter when the ballots are due. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:34 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Dr. Lecter wrote: That's not the point. It's what might reflect the thinking of the Academy members. No. The Hollywood Foreign Press is a separate entity from AMPAS, there is no crossover. Any reflection on the Oscars is just as much of a reflection as any other Critics/Press awards show. The reason why SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA are important is there is some cross over with Academy members which kind indicates overall feelings (although the DGA has MANY more members than directors that are AMPAS members).
Golden Globe nominations may have a subtle and small impact on nominations at the Oscars, but its wins have no effect on the Oscar noms. The Golden Globe ballots are not turned in until this Thursday I believe (I think there is 130ish members of the HFPA).
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:35 pm |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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By the way...
I think Sideways might split Best Picture this year.
The BFCA pushed me over the edge... they have awarded the eventual Best Picture for like 6 years running.
Sideways may just be too strong. And while I like and respect The Aviator. I'm pretty thrilled about that.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:40 pm |
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