I know, he's such a fraud.

:wink:

Look, I know how it sounds, but I seriously don't think it stands a chance!!!
I am going to re-watch it cuz I saw it such a long time ago, but right now on my last edited list, it stands at #11 and that is saying ALOT!!!!


1. Kill Bill
2. Before Sunset
3. Dogville
4. The Passion of the Christ
5. The Aviator
6. Million Dollar Baby
7. Sideways
8. Fahrenheit 9/11
9. Closer
10. Ray
11. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
12. Shrek 2

We'll just see...
If Eternal Sunshine gets more than 3 nominations (screenplay, actress, and a techie), any other nods.... and I am still doubtful over Kate's, but I my confidence is growing... and I will bow down to all you basking in the sunshine!

I mean, come on.... in such a dramatic year, you think the Best Picture race is going to made of 40% Comedy/quirky films?????

Urggh, this is what irks me. People, including the Globes, categorizing Eternal Sunshine as a COMEDY. Apparently any film that stars Jim Carrey is automatically a comedy. There is not even comedy in the film! A couple lines that are somewhat funny and used as comic relief hardly make the film a COMEDY, and the whole film in general was dramatic. A film doesn't have to have a mentally disabled person or dying people to be a drama.

If Eternal Sunshine is a comedy, then so is Lord of the Rings.

And I'm not criticizing you Raffiki, I'm criticizing the Globes in general. They've done the same thing before.

PEACE, Mike

Sideways isn't much of a comedy.
Ray isn't much of a musical.

I agree.

Eternal Sunshine is not really a comedy.
I think Sideways is more iffy, but in my opinion, I think it probably very slightly falls under comedy.

It's just the feel and the tone of the movie I guess.
Eternal sunshine is not a heavyweight movie. It's quirky and most of the characters are just a random group of people that have problems functioning correctly....

Take that opposed to the rise and fall, then rise again of Howard Hughes
or the man who saves over 1000 tutsies in the Rwandan genocide.

It's inevitable thatbthey are going to categorize them.

Personally, I'm not so sure about splitting comedy and drama. I mean, ya it gives more talented artists who would otherwise be overlooked a better chance at recognition. But there will always be this controversy and in the end, they are ALL movies, comedy or drama.... so which wa the best? I hate the categorization. In my book if a comedy is VERY GOOD, then I weight it more against an above average drama because I personally think it is twice as hard to make an effective and quality comedy!

You know, I've noticed a trend the last several years in picture and director wins:

Picture/Director

'98 - Shakespeare In Love/Spielberg for SAving Private Ryan
'99 - American Beauty/ Sam Mendes for American Beauty
'00 - Gladiator/ Steven Soderburgh for Traffic
'01 - A Beautiful Mind/ Ron Howard for A Beautiful Mind
'02 - Chicago/ Roman Polanski for The Pianist
'03 - Return Of The King/ Peter Jackson for ROTK

It seems that every other year there has been a picture/director split. This is pure coincidence of course but it does show the Academy is embracing this much more than they ever did in the past. In light of this I could see Million Dollar Baby winning picture and Scorsese winning director. This would reward both - a career Oscar for Scorsese and Eastwood being rewarded for both M$B and last year's Mystic River.

Eastwood is not going to go away empty handed this year. He'll either be rewarded as an actor (nomination possible, win unlikely), director (he's won before, Scorsese hasn't), or for his movie overall.

This is how I see the situation at the moment:

Million Dollar Baby - lock
The Aviator - lock
Sideways - lock


Two spots open

This is in what order I see the other possible nominees:

1. Hotel Rwanda
2. Finding Neverland
3. Eternal Sunshine
4. Ray

I don't believe anything else can sneak in.

I totally agree. And I really hope Eternal Sunshine makes the cut.

Yes, I'd say that's where we're at right now, too.

It's odd, though, that Hotel Rwanda has become such a surefire contender as of recently. Great reviews, yes, and many appearances on top 10 lists, but not much critc circle support. Then again, other than NBR, Finding Neverland didn't really get anything either.

Well, my theory is that most critics just haven't really seen Hotel Rwanda yet considering its late release.

Eastwood can also be awarded by winning best music score. Right now I don't see The Aviator losing best picture. It's getting as much critical love as Million Dollar Baby as all the top 10's and other awards are indicating, and it's a much bigger movie. We only feel Eastwood is overdue because Mystic River was so close, but if he does win best picture again, that would be two wins in 13 years, which is still considered short and frequent by academy standard.

Agreed. The appreciation for The Aviator is much more universal than Gangs of New York had it. The reviews are much better and even the box-office run appears to be better. It will become Scorcese's highest-grossing picture.

I'm just saying it's a very possible scenario. Eastwood's preceived snub last year by many will translate into some awards somewhere. The Aviator looks more like the type of movie that wins Oscars. But Million $ Baby could pull an upset. I think Scorsese will win the Oscar hands down.

Passion of the CHRIST

seriously?

Anyone notice that in the last few days, Seattle, Kansas, and Dallas film critics all named Million Dollar Baby best picture? The Aviator is not a lock.

Eh. I saw The Aviator, and it was very good. However, it was not quite as good as I was thinking it would be. Something tells me there's something missing there (a connection of some sort) that won't allow it to actually win Best Picture. Right now, I see Million Dollar Baby actually winning.

The Avaitor by a lot!

Well, I don't know...
According to the Top Critics Top 10 Lists site...

Aviator has about 30 more Top 10 mentions
but Million Dollar Baby has 5 more #1's.

I know this is not much of any evidence, but it does further the argument that there will be split.

If there is a split, it will be Baby for Picture and Scorcese for Director.
But I just can't see Aviator losing Best Picture.

In a normal year, they probably would have awarded a Best Acting Award for Clint, but this year is way too strong.

I am not abandoning the possibility of another Eastwood shut-out, he just hit the 2 worst years to make and release 2 amazing pictures!!

Throughout history, when there is a BP/BD split, it's the one that has more nomination that gets the BP (Chicago vs. The Pianist, Gladiator vs. Traffic, even Shakespeare In Love has one more nomination than Saving Private Ryan). Which one is more likely to have more nominations between The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby? We can all agree it's the formal. So if there is a BP/BD split, it would have to be The Aviator for BP and M$B for BD if we go with the historical data, but I doubt anybody can imagine that happening.

Also since everybody votes in the winner round, The Aviator has significant advantage in the technical branches, and it doesn't trail M$B in acting branch with that stellar of a cast. I can't imagine a movie winning the most number of awards without winning the ultimate prize. I know it happened back in 1973 with Cabaret and Godfather, but not in the present.

I believe it'll be similar to last year in the sense that Millon Dollar Baby could bring two acting oscars (Freeman and Swank) as Mystic River did, and Sideways has to settle for the screenplay as Lost in Translation did, although it will certainly get more nominations than 4. The Aviator won't dominate the tech branches as ROTK did with competitions from Phantom, House of Flying Daggers, Collateral, and a few others, but it will still win 3-4 of them, along with BP, BD, and Supporting Actress for 6-7 total.

Unlike Gangs of New York, The Aviator is a crowd pleaser, and while it's not "this year's best" to most people, I think it really is the one that hits all the right notes.

I don't believe in an "Eastwood snub" last year. I don't believe it's a snub for a movie you were never going to win for. Jackson was always going to win that award, anybody who was invited to the party just got to get a nice little "Academy Award Nominee" line on IMDB (which doesn't hurt). I don't think, looking at the love of Return of the King, that there were a ton who thought Jackson's win unjust.

In light of the PGA and DGA noms, I think the safest bet for the top 5 would be.....

Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

I think there is still reason to believe that Hotel Rwanda might get in instead of either Ray because Finding Neverland is getting a lot of support it seems, but even that is a distant shot.

Then down the list there are still Kinsey, Closer and possibly Collateral.

Aside that, there really is nothing that could break that round up.
I think it's time to give up hopes for eternal Sunshine.... it's obvious the critics hit some good notes, but as with alot of great movies each year, the Academy will just not open up to it. Plus, I don't know how people still think that with Sideways there will be another "comedy" nominated, it's just foolish.

Yep, those are the 5 now. It's getting ridiculous how predictable this whole award season has gone, not just the oscar race, but critic awards too where the only film they remembered being made this year is Sideways. There is no imagination or the boldness to be different.

Right now I still put Hotel Rwanda at No. 6. If Closer and Collateral can't get DGA with those two directors, their chances at BP are none. Kinsey's buzz died a few weeks ago. At least HR has that "important" factor, and the current disaster in Asia could raise awareness about human tragedy. However, there is no evidence so far that can encourage me enough to put it in the top 5, and unless something dramatic changes, the current 5 are in pretty solid ground.

I also think that Eternal Sunshine still has somewhat of a chance considering the rave reviews it got and its appearance on almost all critics' TOP 10s.

The ones that are definitely dead by now are Kinsey, Closer and Collateral.

In other news, The Aviator stands at 89% at RT. That is not much worse than Sideways and Million Dollar Baby and therefore making a BP win for it even more likely.

I agree, andaroo.

Clint Eastwood wasn't snubbed in the Director category. He and Coppola were snubbed in the Picture category.

Anyone who didn't think Jackson was completely deserving of the trophy is completely oblivious - when you make a 9 hour saga, all critically-acclaimed and praised for its direction and preciseness - it is only natural that the director gets the award.

The 11 wins was unreasonable, as was the BP win, in parts. If anything, the Academy SHOULD be awarding Hotel Rwanda or Million Dollar Baby (b/c of the Mystic River snub) or Eternal Sunshine (b/c of the Lost in Translation snub). Alas, this won't happen.