Well...

It is less than 2 1/2 months till the year's end and the oscar season is just coming up now. Within the next two months moviefans like us are in for a treat!

So, I'm asking you now, what movies do you see nominated for the Best Picture oscar and which one of those do you see winning?

I know, this is pretty early, but why don't give it a try now, so you can boast later that you were right at such an early point? :wink:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This are my predicted nominations:

The Phantom of the Opera
Closer
The Aviator
Alexander
Mar Adentro

The winner:

The Aviator

I voted with my heart, not my mind.

Eternal Sunshine

KJ

Life Aquatic.

The Passion of the Christ!

my favorite movie in that list!

We all know, it's not gonna happen

We all know, that I love to hope : )

Phantom of the Opera, as much as I want it to succeed, will disappoint on multiple levels.

Hey, I guess I am not the only one who wants it to succeed. I love the trailer and after Phone Booth I am willing to give Joel Schumacher another chance. The movie's lacking some buzz so far, though.

*The Aviator*
Closer
Hotel Rwanda
Alexander
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
--Mar Adentro
--The Phantom of the Opera
--Ray (slipping down the list, could end up like this year's Monster with the main performance utterly overshadowing the movie itself)
--Fahrenheit 9/11
--Kinsey

Other= Finding Neverland.

Here are my predictions:

Alexader
The Aviator
Closer
Ray
The Passion of The Christ


Of course, these will change with time.

Alexander and Aviator will get nominations but neither will win BP.

Passion won't even be nominated.

Closer is too small.

That leaves BP to a series of biopics.

Kinsey, Ray, Finding Neverland, and F 9/11 (a biopic on Bush in my book)

I would give the edge then to F 9/11. It has the box office support, the buzz, and will have the distinction of being the first "documentary" to win BP.

I think Kinsey, Ray, and Finding Neverland will battle it out in the Best Actor and Best Actress races and will have to settle for wins there instead.

I think Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind or Fahrenheit 9/11 SHOULD win.

I think an Aviator win will always be seen as a gimmie to Scorsese.

I think Kinsey, The Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 are too controversial to win.

I think Finding Neverland and Ray don't look good enough as a whole to get a BP nomination (let alone a win).

I think, even if it is nominated, there is no way on God's Green Earth that another epic is going to win after Return of the King last year so say goodbye to Alexander's win.

I think Closer will win but the picture/director award will be split this year.

the passion in an upset!!

The Aviatar but I really hope that Eternal Sunshine gets nominated and wins but I think thats a long shot.

Aviator and Alexander could be the best films ever made and they still won't win Best Picture.

It ain't gonna happen. 8)

And what will you do if one of them will?

Explain. I agree with Alexander but why The Aviator? Seems that if I were to pick two films to come up with an actual WIN for best picture the only names that keep popping up are Closer and Aviator.

Probably The Aviator. The subject isn't as complex as Gangs, so Scorsece SHOULD pull it off (and, when was the last time his movies didn't hit with critics?). Although Ray, Finding Neverland, or Kinsey might be better, it has been way too long...waaaay too long...almost 30 years, no?

Taxi Driver, Goodfellas, The Last Temptation of Christ, and Raging Bull. The guy NEEDS an Oscar. I think the Academy feels the need to give SOMETHING to Gibson, so they might snub Scorcese of his Best Director oscar, give him the Best Picture award, and award Gibson what he truly deserves, considering the mixed reviews. Gibson, I dare say it, deserves recognition. He took a huge risk with The Passion, and it paid off. So, although I hated the movie, I do think he deserves at LEAST a nod for Best Director.

Actually, TPOTC will probably be the film that replaces one of the other BP nominees in the BD category. Since it happens every year.

I say Eternal Sunshine because mainly thats the only one I have seen and really liked, but I have to wait to see the others that haven't come out yet.

I'm so certain neither film will win BP. It's beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Epic will be out this year. That makes Alexander dead as dead can be. 3 years with LOTR in the running, not to mention other large scale productions being nominated, the AMPAS will go with a smaller scaled productions.

The idea that Scorsese is due isn't completely without merit. The problem though is his calender is fairly full. Aviator isn't his swan song. If anything, Gangs of NY was a far more personal and ambitious project for him and he still wasn't able to secure a win, neither BP or BD. Maybe The Departed will be his film to get the gold.

Now, Scorsese could benefit from a BP/BD split and get BD. That's possible, though unlikely at this point.

HOWEVER, Aviator will not win BP.

About Gibson winning BD, that's pie in the sky thinking. Why would the AMPAS award someone for a film that boasts being made outside the hollywood system???

The answer, they wouldn't. :wink:

I think the only three people that could win director this year are:

1) Martin Scorsese
2) Mike Nichols
3) Michael Moore

In that order... (that's a lot of M's!).

The Aviator would be Scorsese's 5th nomination for best director (Gangs of New York, Goodfellas, Raging Bull and The Last Temptation of Christ, which was its ONLY nomination).

If he lands on the director list (and based on Temptation's track record, I don't think that will be a problem) he probably would have the best chance of winning among the nominees. The only reason he lost in 2002 was because Roman Polanski was there, someone who was almost as equally snubbed for his work and his picture was (rumored) to almost beat out Chicago for Best Picture AND there was a fair amount of controversy about unfair Oscar politics by Miramax on the behalf of Scorsese which led to a gaggle of new rules for 2003.

And if he wins Best Director, there is at least a 50/50 chance that it will NOT split (as is the usual tradition) and lead to an Aviator Best Picture win.

You make a lot of great points.

Nothing more really, just thought I'd congratulate you on a well thought out argument. I still think Aviator will fail to secure BP even if Scorsese manages a BD win.

It's pretty funny that we're talking about a win's chances when we haven't even seen it yet.

But if you study Oscar history, you can more or less figure out a film's odds based on past years.

I agree on Alexander. The Academy won't reward two epics in a row. That has been proven when the Academy gave the award to A Beautiful Mind instead of FOTR because in the year before they gave the Oscar to Gladiator. So, yeah, I'd rule out Alexander.

But The Aviator...well, its chances are very high. I mean, let's break down the possible noms:

The Passion of the Christ - Too contorversial and the reviews have been rather lukewarm. Besides that, this movie doesn't enjoy much popularity in the Jewish community which makes up for a big part of the Academy members. A clear NO to this one.

Fahrenheit 9/11 - Too controversial and God, it is a documentary in the end (well, almost). The day won't come when you'll see a documentary winning Best Picture. Furthermore, I am sure there are quite a couple of republicans among the voters who definitely will vote against it. It will never get the majority.

Finding Neverland - This movie looks just way way too unspecial to be rewarded with anything like Best Picture. It won't even get a nod, in my opinion.

Kinsey - Too small of a movie to get Best Picture. As simple as that.

Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind - I am not sure if it will get nominated for Best Picture, but even if it will, chances are not high that the Academy will see the light and finally give the award to a Kaufman movie. It is too quirky.

Mar Adentro - Well, this one has a chance to win, but when was the last time that the Academy gave to award to a foreign movie? Wasn't that with The Last Emperor? I don't think it will happen.

Ray - acting nom - yes! Best Picture - no!

The Phantom of the Opera - Might turn into a strong contender, but no buzz whatsoever so far

Hotel Rwanda - Looks good, the buzz is building up. Might become one of the major contenders. But the studio is a bit too small for a major awards push. However, it could become this year's The Pianist. We'll see.

Closer - This is The Aviator's main competitor. The first "BIG" drama in a long while. Chances are high that it will win, that is true. However, I lean towards The Aviator because of Scorcese.

Fahrenheit will nab Documentary, but never in a million years will the Academy go for Best Picture with it.

Didnt Michael Moore say that he pulled it out of the documentry race?