Since the beginning of SAG Awards, at least one SAG winner went on to lose the oscar.

(People who won an SAG w/o the Oscar, from a thread in OW):
2003 - Best Actor Johnny Depp
2002 - Best Actor Daniel Day Lewis
-------- Best Actress Renee Zellweger
-------- Best Supporting Actor Christopher Walken
2001 - Best Actor Russell Crowe
-------- Best Supporting Actor Ian McKellen
-------- Best Supporting Actress Helen Mirren*
2000 - Best Supporting Actor Albert Finney*
-------- Best Supporting Actress Judi Dench
1999 - Best Actress Annette Bening
1998 - Best Supporting Actor Robert Duvall
-------- Best Supporting Actress Kathy Bates
1997 - Best Supporting Actress Gloria Stuart*
1996 - Best Supporting Actress Lauren Bacall
1995 - Best Supporting Actor Ed Harris
-------- Best Supporting Actress Kate Winslet
1994 - Best Actress Jodie Foster


Who will it be this year? Could there be more than one? Personally, I think Swank is the most likely of the four SAG winners to lose.

Those are all my picks to win the Oscar.

they all have a great chance of winning, but if i got to pick one ive picked Morgan Freeman!

Maybe Cate Blanchett, that's it though.

I think she has the biggest chance of not winning of the group, but I don't see it happening. That would really not make it look too good for The Aviator early in the show, because Alda and Leo aren't going to win. The Aviator HAS to take the one acting award it's favored to take, or Marty's eyebrows might give birth. #-o

Hilary Swank for the reasons that I've stated on numerous occasions and also for the mere fact that the three others look like more certain bets.

Blanchett is probably the weakest link, with Madsen taking up her place if Sidways is more loved than we all think.

Freeman is next, because Hayden Church (not Clive Owen, sorry you guys, the Globes is not an indicator).

Then Swank, with the only other runner being Benning. Staunton can't win, sorry guys.

Then Foxx... well... if a meteor hits the Earth and the Awards are stopped, Jamie will sadly never get his Oscar.

I don't think Swank or Foxx will lose. It'll probably be one of the Supporting Role winners, perhaps both (it seems that the two from Closer and Sideways, Freeman, and Blanchett all have chances...those two categories are perhaps the hardest to predict...

I think Freeman is the most likely to lose.

After that, I would go with Blanchett, which would be a shame because she is the best thing about The Aviator.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the winners were all the same.

Blah, blah, blah - I can see you are going to carry this ERROR IN REASONING WITH HALF ASS LOGIC all the way to the Oscar telecast. Anyone know how to get through to a ](*,) #-o .

And since this bloated analysis took place without even seeing the movie or the performance - blah, blah, blah. ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)

I agree as I think the supporting categories has the most chances for the upsets.

I suggest you suicide

I have a feeling (maybe hope) that Cate will lose. Hilary might also lose too. She was predicted to win the SAG because she lost in in 1999, and she won the Globe, but so did Annette. I think a split between them will give it to Imelda Stauton. The Academy obviously liked the film to give it three major nominations, and this will be a good way to pay it its dues. M$B will likely win a few others, and since Hilary already has one, they may feel like not giving it to her.

The only thing that is committing suicide is your Oscar picks on Oscar night.

Not you?

They will all win the Oscar, I'm thinking. Blanchett is the iffiest of the bunch, but she's owed and the only Aviator actor who has a chance of winning.