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Oscar forecast: Small films vs. heavyweight studio entries
LOS ANGELES ? And they're off.
After weeks of jockeying in critics' circles and smaller film awards, the field is set for the Academy Awards, to be handed out Feb. 27. As expected, it's a close race in many categories, with only one film, The Aviator, garnering 11 nominations, the only double-digit nominee. Small films such as Sideways and Hotel Rwanda will challenge heavyweight studio entries such as Million Dollar Baby and Ray in several categories. But front-runners have emerged.
USA TODAY film writers Scott Bowles, Anthony Breznican and Susan Wloszczyna take a look at the Oscar derby and offer their tip sheets on the winners:
Best Picture
The field: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray and Sideways.
The front-runners: The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby . Both films have been gaining momentum by cleaning up at recent awards, including the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild of America.
The dark horse: Sideways. The critical darling could sneak between the two behemoths if Aviator and Baby split voters.
Put your money on: The Aviator. With 11 nominations and the epic scope that the academy loves, the Howard Hughes biography is the one to beat. "The Oscar's been going to bigger productions lately, like Chicago, Gladiator and Lord of the Rings," says Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger. "And no film is bigger than The Aviator."
Best Actor
The field: Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) and Jamie Foxx (Ray).
The front-runners: Foxx and Eastwood. Foxx is the favorite, but if voters value Million Dollar Baby , the 74-year-old Eastwood could ride off with his first acting prize for a tearful and tender role that subverts his iconic stoicism. "It's a career summation performance," says Emanuel Levy, author of All About Oscar. "To me he's a late bloomer as an actor. And he's the anchor of the film."
The dark horse: DiCaprio. Just as Foxx immersed himself in the role of blind, drug-addicted Ray Charles, DiCaprio also delved into brutal emotional territory as the dynamic, damaged, mentally unbalanced innovator with his mentally unbalanced Howard Hughes.
Put your money on: Foxx. It's his to lose, playing a beloved, recently deceased musical legend. DiCaprio's equally daring work is in service of a disagreeable eccentric, giving Foxx the advantage. "He's a shoo in," Levy says, adding that Foxx's Collateral supporting actor bid gives him unstoppable momentum. "He's the actor of the year."
Best Actress
The field: Annette Bening (Being Julia), Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace), Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake), Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) and Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind).
The front-runners: Swank and Bening. They'll party like it's 1999. That was the last time the two faced off in an Oscar title bout. Back then, Swank triumphed as the underdog as a girl who passes as a guy in Boys Don't Cry, beating out Bening's desperate housewife in American Beauty.
The dark horse: Staunton. As a kindly abortionist who helps girls in trouble in the dark days of 1950s England, the respected character actress was a revelation to many in Mike Leigh's social drama. She's collected a nook full of critical honors this season, including ones from the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. But her profile may be a bit too low to overcome the main prizefighters Swank and Bening.
Put your money on: Swank. She could have been a has-been after her powerful yet gimmicky gender-bender in Boys Don't Cry. But much like her underdog fighter in Million Dollar Baby , she hung in there, paid her dues and earned another role of a lifetime. Voters won't be able to ignore a knockout performance backed by a deserved return to the top.
Best Supporting Actor
The field: Alan Alda (The Aviator), Thomas Haden Church (Sideways), Jamie Foxx (Collateral), Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby) and Clive Owen (Closer).
The front-runners: Freeman and Church. In one corner, Freeman's wizened boxer throwing sentimental punches. In the other, Church's womanizing party boy, hurling coy come-ons and rude put-downs. One floats like a butterfly, the other stings like a bee.
The dark horse: Owen. Another womanizer, this one far more profane. His character's savage delivery of verbal abuse earned him a Golden Globe, but may be too brutal for the more populist academy.
Put your money on: Freeman. "There are no tricks, no devices. He's the purest actor and the most subtle," Levy says. Though Owen's Golden Globe victory boosted his chances, Freeman's light touch with a sorrowful character tugs at the heartstrings, and his three previous nominations with no wins may KO the competition.
Best Supporting Actress
The field: Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), Laura Linney (Kinsey), Virginia Madsen (Sideways), Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda) and Natalie Portman (Closer).
The front-runners: Blanchett and Madsen. Blanchett has been pegged to win an Oscar for so long, it only feels like she has already won. Actually, her lone previous nomination was for her breakout lead in 1998's Elizabeth. Meanwhile, former '80s siren Madsen, who once tussled under the sheets with Don Johnson in 1990's The Hot Spot, is older, wiser and better than ever ? much like the vintage wine she pours as a restaurant server in the critical favorite.
The dark horse: Linney. She stood by her sexually obsessed man in Kinsey ? and under a canopy of some rather unflattering eyebrows, too. Her Mystic River co-star Marcia Gay Harden's similar role as the long-suffering wife in the biopic Pollock grabbed the academy's attention in 2001. And Linney has an Oscar track record as a best-actress nominee for 2000's You Can Count on Me.
Put your money on: Blanchett. Hollywood likes to admire itself at the movies almost as much as it does in mirrors, and Cate as Kate is one classy tribute from one great actress to another. Besides, "The energy just goes out of the film once she leaves and never really recovers," says Damien Bona, co-author of Inside Oscar: The Unofficial History of the Academy Awards.
Best Director
The field: Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Mike Leigh (Vera Drake), Alexander Payne (Sideways) and Martin Scorsese (The Aviator).
The front-runners: Eastwood and Scorsese. These two Hollywood icons make for the most compelling race of the Oscars. It will be Eastwood's growing esteem as a filmmaker versus the perpetual bridesmaid Scorsese, who has never won a statuette.
The dark horse: Payne. After being snubbed for a best director nomination for 2002's About Schmidt, Payne is getting his due as a filmmaker.
Put your money on: Scorsese. Sympathies are running high for the 62-year-old, who has a film the academy can finally embrace. "Voters really wanted to give it to him for (2002's) Gangs of New York," Bona says. "But too many people hated the movie. This one doesn't have that kind of resentment."
