No, if there is a split it will be the other way around. Aviator has more guild support...

Well, to tell you the truth, I wouldn't want to be in The Aviator's position for Best Picture if none of the nominated actors win and Eastwood wins best director.

WTG Clint

What an exciting year. I do think there will be a split.

I have a lot of issues with The Aviator (it's at the bottom of the 5 films) but scenes like the filming of Hell's Angels, the various parties and premieres, his crash in Hollywood, and the CT lunch, blow the other 5 films out the water in terms of Hollywood gloss.

I wish the story was tighter but Marty seems to be unable to rein it in lately, much like Spielberg.

I feel bad for Scorsese.

But the right man won the award.

WAY TO GO CLINT!

I still think it unlikely that they will snub Blanchett. Maybe Madsen, but hmmm... The Globes might have snubbed her because she's won before.

But Best Supporting Actress has never really been a huge indicator of Picture power.

Here is another interesting question for you. This headline made the rounds the last few days:

"DE NIRO, AMEXCO ACCUSED OF EXPLOITING 9/11"

The - for ridiculous reasons - controversial spot was directed by Scorsese and in a race as tight as it is at the moment, could that be the deciding factor that lures voters away from Scorsese to Eastwood?

You can shoot me if I'm wrong one month from now, but I'll say it now...That's NOT gonna happen. If Eastwood takes director, Baby's taking picture.

Possible outcomes (IMO)
The aviator wins director and picture.
Split, Scorce wins director, baby picture.
M$B wins both.

But no Eastwood/Aviator split.

@Xiayun, it would make things closer but Cate Blanchett and Ensemble aren't as competitive as actress in supporting actor. Movies like the aviator are MADE for an ensemble award anyway, with that kind of cast...John C Reilly, Cate, Leo, Alan, etc.

I've thought M$B would win best picture since around december now, and I'm only getting more confident in it (I predicted Aviator would take the Globe, too).

For right now, I still don't think The Aviator is even close to having Best Picture locked up.

Clint's DGA win cements this.