Nominations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Don Cheadle / HOTEL RWANDA - Paul Rusesabagina - United Artists
Johnny Depp / FINDING NEVERLAND - Sir James Matthew Barrie - Miramax Films
Leonardo DiCaprio / THE AVIATOR - Howard Hughes - Miramax Films
Jamie Foxx / RAY - Ray Charles - Universal Pictures
Paul Giamatti / SIDEWAYS - Miles - Fox Searchlight Pictures

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Annette Bening / BEING JULIA - Julia Lambert - Sony Pictures Classics
Catalina Sandino Moreno / MARIA FULL OF GRACE - Maria - Fine Line Features
Imelda Staunton / VERA DRAKE - Vera - Fine Line Features
Hilary Swank / MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Maggie - Warner Bros.
Kate Winslet / ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND - Clementine Kruczynski - Focus Features

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Thomas Haden Church / SIDEWAYS - Jack - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Jamie Foxx / COLLATERAL - Max - DreamWorks SKG
Morgan Freeman / MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Scrap - Warner Bros.
James Garner / THE NOTEBOOK - Duke - New Line Cinema
Freddie Highmore / FINDING NEVERLAND - Peter Llewelyn Davies - Miramax Films

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett / THE AVIATOR - Katharine Hepburn - Miramax Films
Cloris Leachman / SPANGLISH - Evelyn - Columbia Pictures
Laura Linney / KINSEY - Clara McMillen - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Virginia Madsen / SIDEWAYS - Maya - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Sophie Okonedo / HOTEL RWANDA - Tatiana Rusesabagina - United Artists

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

THE AVIATOR - Miramax Films
Alan Alda - Senator Ralph Owen Brewster
Alec Baldwin - Julian Trippe
Kate Beckinsale - Ava Gardner
Cate Blanchett - Katharine Hepburn
Leonardo DiCaprio - Howard Hughes
Ian Holm - Professor Fitz
Danny Huston - Jack Frye
Jude Law - Errol Flynn
John C. Reilly - Noah Dietrich
Gwen Stefani - Jean Harlow

FINDING NEVERLAND - Miramax Films
Julie Christie - Mrs. Emma Du Maurier
Johnny Depp - Sir James Matthew Barrie
Freddie Highmore - Peter Llewelyn Davies
Dustin Hoffman - Charles Frohman
Radha Mitchell - Mary Ansell Barrie
Joe Prospero - Jack Llewelyn Davies
Nick Roud - George Llewelyn Davies
Luke Spill - Michael Llewelyn Davies
Kate Winslet - Sylvia Llewelyn Davies

HOTEL RWANDA - United Artists
Don Cheadle - Paul Rusesabagina
Nick Nolte - Colonel Oliver
Sophie Okonedo - Tatiana Rusesabagina
Joaquin Phoenix - Jack Daglish

MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Warner Bros.
Clint Eastwood - Frankie
Morgan Freeman - Scrap
Hilary Swank - Maggie

RAY - Universal Pictures
Aunjanue Ellis - Mary Ann Fisher
Jamie Foxx - Ray Charles
Terrence Dashon Howard - Gossie McGee
Regina King - Margie Hendricks
Harry Lennix - Joe Adams
Clifton Powell - Jeff Brown
Larenz Tate - Quincy Jones
Kerry Washington - Della Bea Robinson

SIDEWAYS - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Thomas Haden Church - Jack
Paul Giamatti - Miles
Virginia Madsen - Maya
Sandra Oh - Stephanie

Sometimes the SAG will put supporting performances in a lead category if the performance is strong enough. Joan Allen was nominated as lead actress for Nixon at the SAGs, supporting at the oscars. Jennifer Connelly had the same thing happen with A Beautiful Mind.

SAG winners used to be a good indicator for who would win an Oscar, even better than the Golden Globes. They don't seem to be as accurate forecasters as they once were, having varied a little in the last couple of years.

My analysis for the possible nominees:


Best Actor:


Leonardo DiCaprio - With The Aviator getting tons of critical paraise, doing well at the box-office and practically being the first shoe-in nom at this year's Oscars, DiCaprio's nomination is as much of a lock as Bill Murray's last year. He probably won't win, but a nom is assured.


Johnny Depp - He won the SAG award last year for Pirates of the Caribbean, the only major awad he won for that role as far as I know. That obviously shows that the SAG members love him quite a bit. With Finding Neverland having been nominated for DGA as well as PGA, Johnny Depp's nomination here is not a lock, but very close to it. He won't win twice in a row, though as his performance in Finding Neverland seems by far not as extraordinary as in Pirates of the Caribbean.


Paul Giamatti - Sideways is receiving more praise than all other films released this year and SAG has shown last year by nominating Patricia Clarkson and Peter Dinklage for The Station Agent that it is not afraid of nominatng actors from small and quirky films. Paul Giamatti missed out on American Splendor, but this year might make up for that.

Jamie Foxx - His is this year what Sean Penn was last year. Two great performances and a lock for a Best Actor nom at the oscars as well as here.

Liam Neeson - He started out as a certain nominee, but has been losing monumentum since. He has won some awards by crticis, yet missed out on a nomination at the Broadcast Film Critics Association which already hurt his chances quite a bit. SAG seems as his last chance to boost his oscar hopes.

Javier Bardem - Another actor who has been considered a definite nominee in the beginning, but immensly lost monumentum later on. The movie is doing horribly at the box-office and while Bardem received tons of nominations so far for his oscar-bait performance, there were no major wins to boot. As I said, SAG has nominated actors from small films last year, but The Sea Inside might be too small in the end.

Don Cheadle - While he is not a lock for a nomination he has been continuosly gaining steam for Hotel Rwanda just like the movie itself has which is doing very well with the critics. Cheadle's performance is well-liked all-round and he has been a very underestimated actor for many years. This year will most likely honor him for his work. I doubt his win, but I think he'll probably replace Giamatti on the nominations list.

Clint Eastwood - For all his years in the business, he has yet to win a Best Actor trophy at the oscars. Surprisingly, though, despite all the praise for Million Dollary Baby, out of all the prominent members of the cast, he is getting the least praise being overshadowed by Freeman and Swank. Considering that and the rather competitive Best Actor category this year, I would say that his chances are rather slim.


Best Actress:


Annette Benning - She hasn't been winning many award recently or having been mentioned by many critics, but her nomination seems like a shoe-in. The movie itself, Being Julia, didn't get much attention, neither can it claim a good box-office run. However, all critics are praising Bennings performance in it and let's not forget that she won the National Board of Review. She might not win here, actually most likely she won't, but a nom is almost assured.

Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby is getting praises left and right and most reviews claim that Swank overshadows Eastwood and Freeman in the movie. At this point, she is pretty much a lock for a nomination here and a good contender for the win.

Imelda Staunton - Last year Evan Rachel Wood and Patricia Clarkson, both starring in rather small feature have been nominated in this category. I don't see why Staunton should miss out. Considering the praises for her performance, I also think that she'll give Swank a run for her money...

Uma Thurman - Her performance in Kill Bill Vol. 2 was great. but so was her performance in the first Volume as well and she didn't get nominated for that one. I don't see why the trend should change this time around. Even though the category is rather weak, I see the SAG nominating actresses from small pictures rather than giving Thurman a nod.

Julie Delpy - Before Sunset is one of the five most praised films of the year and as far as performances go, Delpy is the one standing out in Before Sunset. Despite the films early release and umpimressive box-office, she has still received many nominations for her performance so far and lots of critics praise. Since I see Before Sunset becoming this year's Thirteen, I easily see Delpy being nominated here like Evan Rachel Wood was last year.

Kate Winslet - She has a pretty good shot considering her praised performance in Eternal Sunshine and the fact that the film was actually more successful than of most other possible nominees. I definitely wouldn't count her out.

Catalina Sandino Moreno - She has a good chance, but I think only one actress from a rather small feature will be nominated this year and that will be Delpy rather than Moreno. She has an outside shot at replacing Winslet, though.

Lecter... here is a first... why are you underestimating Cheadle?

I think Eastwood and Cheadle have more steam at the moment than Neeson and Bardem.

At least, I don't expect Neeson or Bardem to be on the ballot at Oscar time.

Winslett has the backing of both Eternal Sunshine and Neverland, she is fine.

I'm like, the only one on the planet, who thinks that as of right now Benning will be snubbed for both SAG and Oscar. Her nomination seems to hinge on the fact that people consider her "due" for a win, but she WON for American Beauty at the 1999 SAG awards..

I think the nominations will pretty much be exactly like the Golden Globes this year, which makes it kinda boring :???:

CAtalina Sandino Moreno for best actress maybe (I'm hoping...she's superb, but they often overlook subtle performances like that).


Is Annette Bening really the frontrunner in the race? :???: I'm having a hard time picturing her....deserving it. Maybe she'll miss out I don't know.

Best Ensemble:
Sideways
Million Dollar Baby
The Aviator
Closer
Ray

Alternates: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Finding Neverland.

ARGH! *slaps forehead*

I don't underestimate Cheadle, I forgot him!

I'll edit in my thoughts.

EDIT: Ok, done. I added him and Eastwood.

I heart Huckabees can sneak in as well.

Doubt it with mediocre reviews...


Natalie Portman in Garden State!



*hopes for major surprises*

Nope, I'm the other guy. The movie got pretty badly trashed, they just liked Benning, didn't even seem to love her. Mann was Best Director at the NRAs, and he's not gonna get nominated. Why would Benning?

I do think Annette Benning is the front-runner to win the Oscar just because of my reasoning as to how th others are ruled out and the fact that she did hit the right note with Being Julia.

I think a SAG nod is in store, but I do think it's possible for her to be snubbed for SAG, which will seriously jeopardize her chances of winning, not being nominated, for Oscar.

Personally, I liked Hillary Swank in Baby and seem to really like her acting in general, but I hate it that she's winning whatever she is.

I think Staunton won her share too.

I really want to see Winslet, Delpy, and Thurman winning some because they damn well deserve it.

If Julie Delpy gets nominated for Best Actress, it will seriously be one of the happiest days of my life and that really makes me sad! :wink:
I think Uma deserves it as much, but Delpy is more unrealistic.

So, at this point, yes the big Sunshine doubter is pulling for Winslet to win Best Actress, though I know almost for sure she won't!!

Well, these are handed out next Saturday and as of now, I'd predict Foxx, Swank, Freeman and Blanchett to take the award home as well as The Aviator to win best ensemble.

Actor: Foxx continues his unstoppable march to the Oscars.
Actress: Swank was defeated by Benning at SAG last time they squared off, so she'll win this time. Unless Kate Winslett pulls a huge upset.
Supporting Actor:Morgan Freeman will easily win this I think.
Supporting Actress: I think Blanchett wins this.
Ensemble: I think Sideways will pull a bit of an upset and win this. No big names, comebacks for TV stars and faded starlets, I think Sideways wins it.

I think Dicaprio has a great shot at best actor.

My predictions (bold=first;red=second;blue=third:)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Don Cheadle / HOTEL RWANDA - Paul Rusesabagina - United Artists
Johnny Depp / FINDING NEVERLAND - Sir James Matthew Barrie - Miramax Films
Leonardo DiCaprio / THE AVIATOR - Howard Hughes - Miramax Films
Jamie Foxx / RAY - Ray Charles - Universal Pictures
Paul Giamatti / SIDEWAYS - Miles - Fox Searchlight Pictures

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Annette Bening / BEING JULIA - Julia Lambert - Sony Pictures Classics
Catalina Sandino Moreno / MARIA FULL OF GRACE - Maria - Fine Line Features
Imelda Staunton / VERA DRAKE - Vera - Fine Line Features
Hilary Swank / MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Maggie - Warner Bros.
Kate Winslet / ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND - Clementine Kruczynski - Focus Features

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Thomas Haden Church / SIDEWAYS - Jack - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Jamie Foxx / COLLATERAL - Max - DreamWorks SKG (Note= Only if he loses Best Actor)
Morgan Freeman / MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Scrap - Warner Bros.
James Garner / THE NOTEBOOK - Duke - New Line Cinema
Freddie Highmore / FINDING NEVERLAND - Peter Llewelyn Davies - Miramax Films

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett / THE AVIATOR - Katharine Hepburn - Miramax Films
Cloris Leachman / SPANGLISH - Evelyn - Columbia Pictures
Laura Linney / KINSEY - Clara McMillen - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Virginia Madsen / SIDEWAYS - Maya - Fox Searchlight Pictures
Sophie Okonedo / HOTEL RWANDA - Tatiana Rusesabagina - United Artists

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

THE AVIATOR - Miramax Films
FINDING NEVERLAND - Miramax Films
HOTEL RWANDA - United Artists
MILLION DOLLAR BABY - Warner Bros.
RAY - Universal Pictures
SIDEWAYS - Fox Searchlight Pictures