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Most movies that are nominated for Best Picture have greater mass appeal than critical appeal.
I wouldn't disagree with this, but saying that films like The Hours and Lost in Translation had massive audience appeal is questionable. Indeed, much smaller movies driven primarily as critics choices. And it doesn't mean that every single film that has mass-appeal and good/decent/great reviews is automatically a Best Picture lock.
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and is defintely more academy-friendly than an agaiinst-type Martin Scorcese flick (whose films historically only get a best picture nomination every 10-12 years).
It's better, safer bet to wager on the "against type Martin Scorsese" (which, I think if you think about it hard, is not as "against type" as Kudun or The Last Temptation of Christ was) being...
1. The Academy is not above politics.
2. Miramax is not above the politics of pushing a better race-horse. They can get multiples nominated, but the question remains whether they CAN in their current state or if the bias against them with the Academy is real or not.
3. Scorsese's films may have in the past only get a picture nomination every 10-12 years but unlike Marc Foster (director of Finding Neverland) he HAS gotten a pic nominated and been nominated 5 times at various intervals (2003, 1994, 1991, 1989, 1981). That's a stat you can't cling to. In regards to Scorsese's "overdue-ness" we CAN cling to the Gangs of New York campaign which relied HEAVILY on the amount he has brought to cinema. Going from a Director's nomination to a Picture nomination isn't much of a jump.
4. Scorsese's name and the fame of the actors will automatically secure a large amount of print.
I'm not saying it won't happen. Anything that brings Depp and Winslett closer to their overdue wins would make me happy. I'm just saying that there is no way on paper that Finding Neverland is an automatic lock for any awards, let alone winning them. I've read on other web sites, and supporters of this movie are clinging to A Beautiful Mind as comparison, but I think that comparison is bunk because what drove that film was Howard.