Cate will win the oscar because she is more overdue than Kate in academy members' eyes, and she played a screen legend perfectly. But I also believe Kate will be a double nominee this year. I don't think when the actors/actresses fill out the ballot, they will pause and say "yeah I already voted Foxx twice in the lead and supporting, so I won't vote for Kate twice." It just doesn't make sense. I feel very confident about the 5 nominees for the Best Supporting Actress category, more so than any other categories except for Best Animated Feature.

1994 Oscars

Holly Hunter
Best Actress: The Piano
Best Supporting Actress: The Firm

Emma Thompson
Best Actress: The Remains of the Day
Best Supporting Actress: In the Name of the Father

There you go.

Also, my (as of now) final Best Supporting Actress predictions:
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

I just watched The Aviator last night and Cate Blanchett had better win an Oscar this year. She was the highlight of the movie. You know why everyone is saying the first half is so good? It's because the majority of it features Cate Blanchett. She has finally found her Oscar-winning role.

I know i'm going to be going with everyone else, but I pretty much have to.

Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

In my dream world, Julie Delpy would swap spots with Kate. I love Winslet, but for Eternal Sunshine and many of her far more brave projects then Neverland.

Julie Delpy is the lead, so she isn't competing in this category, and I still have her as an alternative for the No. 5 spot in the best actress race.

D'oh, for some reason I thought she was... even though she's in 99% of the footage....

I'm going to have to go with the crowd on this one and say it has now come down to Blanchett, Linney, Madsen, Portman, and Winslet, but just having seen The Manchurian Candidate, my partialness and I can't completely rule out Meryl Streep.

...Can we?

NEVER rule out Streep. I still can't believe she was nominated for Music Of The Heart.

Currently I predict:

Virgina Madsen, Sideways
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Natalie Portman, Closer
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda

I think the 5th spot is up in the air and it could just as well be Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet or Sharon Warren. Considering how I think that Hotel Rwanda will be a Best Picture nominee, I give Okonedo the edge.

I completely agree. Those are my predictions also.

Yep, I think Winslet's out of this one (since she'll get a Lead Actress nom) and Okenedo's in.

Same lineup for me.

I don't think both Okonedo and Linney will be there. I think Streep will be nominated in place of one of those.

I also think Oh has an outside chance and maybe Warren depending on the love for Sideways and Ray. And outside of that Lechman and Bacall

Outside those 8, I'm not sure there are any great competators

Same for me, with Sophie Okonedo being the only one I'm not sure about. Warren, Streep and Lechman could take her place.

I am certain, Winslet has a better chance than Bacall.

A nomination for Bacall would be more shocking than her loss for The Mirror Has Two Faces. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm almost ready for some shocks this year.

What movie is Bacall up for? Birth?

Either that or Dogville.

There is no way Becall will get nominated...

At this point, Winslet has a better chance than almost anyone for that 5th slot.
No doubt Linney is in, can't even argue that.

Forget Meryl Streep. I know you should never count her out, but there is too much at stake in the career achievements of anyone who is up for a nod to just give another one to Streep.

And sorry to say, I actually think there will be minimum # of suprises this year!

I think Okonedo as well as Streep have a better chance than Winslet because Winslet is already getting a nom for Eternal Sunshine and I don't think we'll see two double-nominees this year.

I think they're gonna go with Madsen although her being snubbed at the Globes was no good sign. I would be lovely if Blanchett could win this one. She deserved it and it would be one for the record books. Or has someone ever won an Oscar for the portrayal of an Oscar winner? (I couldn't even think of a nomination)

How a few days can change everything. From now on I consider Cate Blanchett being the front-runner. The academy obviously didn't love Sideways as much as everyone else. Paul Giamatti not being nominated for Best Actor tells everything. This will definitely hurt Virginia Madsen's chances and IMO Blanchett took over the lead...

Looks like we all got it right

As far as the win goes, I am rooting for Blanchett.

Me too, although I also loved the performances of Madsen and Portman.

I'm rooting for Portman, but I wouldn't mind a win for Blanchett or Madsen. These are the only three who can win, imo. Linney and Okonedo will have to settle just being nominated.