I'll get right to the point. I dont think this movie is going to break 160mil. Anybody thinking this will get to 300mil+ is smoking something. I just dont feel it for this film. I've been asking friends, family, coworker and no one seems to care about it. I'd say it would perform along the lines of Godzilla but that had the summer going for it. The only thing this film does have is Jackson and even that wont help. Hey, Godzilla had Emerich coming off of the success of ID4 and look where it landed. I dont want to hear its going to have ground breaking effects because frankly it should and thats not enough. We've all come to expect that at a new level each year anyway. And the story, well we all know what happens. Any Mighty Joe's want to join me in doing the Congo dance?

----------------------------------------


I'm changing my toon slightly and to get more people on board we'll go with a sub $200mil club. I still dont think this film will break 200mil and will be lucky to get to 175mil. I dont feel the interest isnt there with or with out Jackson. It will be another Godzilla.

3day(weekend): $50-60mil
5day: $75-80mil
final: $175mil

You're right on the money (or a tad bit low) for the opening weekend. But, total? Nope. It can easily do atleast $180 million.

Legs, baby. It helps even the movies with bad WOM during Christmas time. If it gets $25 million from Wednesday and Thursday (possibly a low amount), plus $60 million for the weekend, and has a 2.5x multiplier, that's still around $175 million total.

Count me in.

I believe this baby can pass $200 million easily.

Thats just it, in my opinion I dont see it doing 'that' well. I'm leaning toward the low side of the spectrum on this one. Maybe 15-20 for Wen/Thur and 50 for the weekend. This movie just isnt ment to be released in the winter. I think Narnia will give it problems. And again I just dont feel a big interest for this outside of the people from these forums.

Nope, not happenning. Just these new trailers for the trailer that are up in the King Kong thread are making me drool, and clearly set up the film as an awesome action/adventure film. This isn't something that just Jackson fans are going to flock to, in my opinion. I was worried at first that the film would have little appeal, due to it being "King Kong", a remake that I definately felt unnecessary (I mean, what a weird film to go to after being so successful with Lord of the Rings). But so far Jackson is not failing to impress me, AGAIN. The film will easily open really big, and then it's got Christmas holidays, so it's going to be much bigger than $160 million.

The anticipation is starting to sink in now with the teaser for the trailer commercials, and the trailer coming monday. I think you may even be underestimating the opening weekend, because even though you may not feel it now, there is going to be lots of buzz when this opens. I can't wait!! :razz:

PEACE, Mike

NEVER!!!
hehe i just saw the new commercial for the trailer and that one looks fantastic, i cant imagine how freaking awesome the trailer is going to be!!

so no, i wont join!

....No....

Ahh, the pre trailer, trailer. See thats what does it in even more for me. Personally I'm not impressed. Although quick the 3sec glimps doesnt show me anything that blows me away. If it was 1993, i'd say yes but its not. King Kong was never a major blockbuster in the seventies and I dont see anything that would change that today. I'm sure I'll like it as will most here but the 300 members wont push it into the stratosphere. The Kong/Jackson fans will give it a good solid opening but the legs wont be there.

Narnia will give it trouble? If this club was for Narnia, I'd join it in a second.

Some internet geeks assume that Meet The Fockers was not liked and the $279M just happened to show up one fine day in the movie box office counters by accident or miracle. They tried the same silly argument with Shrek 2. Since they didn't like Shrek 2, they assumed 71 million people must have been brainwashed to watch it. Then they started saying, if crap like Shrek 2 can make $441M, The Incredibles should cross $300, $400 & $450M.

Meet the Fockers was absolutely hilarious and people loved it. It is not that easy to gross $279M. Anyway other than internet geeks and moviebufs, ordinary moviegoers could not tell Peter Jackson from Kevin Johnson (ex-suns KJ). This movie has competition from Dick & Jane, Narnia and HP4.

Oh great!

The confederancy of dunces!

I guess that's you, but I, along with many other people, thinks it looks sweet. And a film can change INSTANTLY from directing, editing, etc. You are falsely assuming we are seeing just another "King Kong" and the original is a classic film anyways. I'm not saying this film is going to be as big as Lord of the Rings, but it certainly is not going to get less than $160 million. That barrier is so much easier to get these days, and when King Kong is pretty much assured a huge opening, and then has christmas holidays, etc, I think you're way off. If you had made a less than $200 million total thread, I still wouldn't join, but I would at least think you are being reasonable. In this case, I think you are being extreme, and I am fairly confident you'll be wrong.

PEACE, Mike

And you are a fucking asshole.

Harry Potter 4 opens nearly a month before King Kong; you are stretching it if you actually think this will be competition. Dick & Jane is not even close to the same type of film; a "serious" action film and a wacky Carrey film are able to survive together nicely. The only film I would agree is competition is Narnia, and even that is not guaranteed to be within huge blockbuster status.

PEACE, Mike

You are right about HP4. I thought it was on Dec 1 (It is in Australia). There is also Spielberg's Olympics terrorist attack movie amon others.

Under $160 million? That's laughable. I am sure not one of LOTR loonies and neither am I well-known for insane over/under predicting, but this one has everything going for it to become a bona fide hit this December. At first I was lowballing it with about $200-215 million, but after having seen bits and pieces of the trailer, it does seem to me like a very well-made adventure flick with great production values. Moreover, Peter Jackson's name alone will work as a draw, believe it or not. King Kong is a household name. You may want to compare it to Godzilla. Godzilla made around $136 million back in 1998. I think we can all agree that the name King Kong is at least as popular as Godzilla, but probably even more than that. In terms of adjusted gross, Godzilla probably made around $160+ million and that movie had HORRENDOUS WoM and was very frontloaded considering the fact that back in 1998 frontloading wasn't quite a usual thing. It also had a summer release date.

King Kong has a September release date which basically guarantees good legs. Now, I am certain this one won't have legs anywhere close to LOTR because it will simply be quite frontloaded. On the other hand it'll have a big opening. I am seeing around $110-120 million in its first five days. It'll be the first more adult-oriented blockbuster of the winter. Audiences will have seen Harry Potter and Narnia before it. That's a lot of family entertainment, but both are pretty much the same genre. King Kong is different. The legs will be good, not great. I don't think it'll even reach a multiplier of 4. But a huge opening alone will already guarantee a total gross of $200+ million. This one will be hyped up to no end, trust me on that one and I am pretty sure it won't be panned like Godzilla was.

Just face it, it will make more than that.

King Kong will make over 50-100 million more then Narnia. You can quote me on that one. The early ads have been awesome, and if the trailer brings the house down like I know it will come Monday (and then again when it's attached to every single print of War of the Worlds) we'll be in for what could very well be the biggest movie of the year. A 120-140 minute running time will allow it to have more shows then Lord of the Rings, and Jackson has much more of a fanbase then he did beforehand. The cast, the huge effects (it ain't just a big gorilla, there's a huge amount of dinosaurs, giant spiders and "other things" I won't spoil), and the massive spread out appeal are going to make this one be an absolute giant at the box office. If it opened on a three day I'd say that Return of the King's December record was history. As is, it'll get a run for it's money. If there is to be a single movie that makes 400-500+ million this year, King Kong will be it. Afterall, people have been comparing this year to 1997, and if so, we need a new Titanic.

Perhaps because there has been very little advertising so far? :razz: I'm sure not many people gave a damn about the upcoming Lord of the Rings movies in June 2001.


Jackson is arguably the hottest film director in the world at the moment; he alone would guarantee King Kong a respectable 5-day opening, and I do mean that factor ALONE.


Please tell me you're joking. *cough*Titanic, LotR, SW3, etc.*cough*

not in...this should make 200+ million easily

Do all of your posts start out novel-sized, or do they just snowball into that length?

Just asking. This is not a criticism.


Sorry if I offended.

You are the one to talk wen it comes to long posts, right?

No offense.

Don't be disrespect.

Oh, no offense taken. You really think I write long posts? Ok, well, except the survey one in the Water Cooler. Anyways, I enjoy your posting, I just wondered why they were so long today. But it's good stuff.


I think we can all agree on this: MovieDude's recent decision to divide his (excellent) posts into paragraphs was very good indeed.


~~~


The two biggest factors (in terms of release date/etc) are 1) the fact that the film basically has 2 full weeks' (or thereabouts) worth of weekend-like days, which could give it $150-200m in two weeks. When you have 330m or so North Americans on holiday, the potential audience is humongous. 2) A sustained run during the usually slow January/February period. If it gets any awards/noms and critical acclaim, it could have very good legs.

Y'know, I had spent 25 minutes writing out a huge post explaning my thoughts on Kong, but when I reread it, I could barely understand the mess. I'll save myself the time and just say that I'm semi-in. I don't see this going over $250 at all, and $200 seem to be more fitting for the movie, but I would not be surprised at all if the movie went under $160.

Aren't you in your 30s? Do you not rember how big it was when it opened?

Ok

WEEKEND RECORDS THROUGH THE YEARS

Weekend Chart RecordDate Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross
6/17/77 The Deep $8,124,316 13.5% 800 $10,155 $60,000,000
6/19/75 Jaws $7,061,513 409 $14,265 225,000,000
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/we ... ecords.htm

12/17/1976 King Kong $7,023,921 974 $7,211 $7,023,921 3 52,614,445
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/1976/0KK76.html

Film (distributor) Release Revenue
1 Rocky (UA) Nov 76 $56.525 m
2 A Star is Born (WB) Dec 76 $37.100 m
3 King Kong (Para.) Dec 76 $36.915 m
4 Silver Streak (Fox) Dec 76 $30.018 m
5 All the President's Men (WB) Apr 76 $30.000 m
6 The Omen (Fox) Jun 76 $28.544 m
7 The Bad News Bears (Para.) Apr 76 $24.888 m
8 The Enforcer (WB) Dec 76 $24.000 m
9 In Search of Noah's Ark (Sunn) Jul 76 $23.770 m
10 Midway (Univ.) Jun 76 $21.610 m

http://www.boxofficereport.com/database/1976.shtml

Back in the 1970s it was always by revenue (what the studios got) not box office receipts. Basically, double it for the total gross.

In 1976 KK made $52m, adjusted it made $159m, which may not like sound much now days, but it was the number three movie of the year. It was roughly that year's, Meet the Fockers. It opened huge in December, there was controversy over whether or not it broke the opening record held by Jaws. Winter was a bad time for it to open, because it was Summer movie. However, Hollywood hadn't figured out what a cash cow the Summer was yet and even what a Summer popcorn flick was yet. Jaws was just seen as a fluke. Star Wars would make them wake up to the fact that Summer was where the money was. Oh, and the movie was reviled by the critics and hated by most adults. It was only kids who liked it much.

KK IMDB Rating 5.3
http://imdb.com/title/tt0074751/

So, you have one of the great stories in cinema. The original was highest grossing movie of all-time until 1935. The remake was horrible and opened at the wrong time yet, still managed to get into the top 20 all-time, box office of that time. So now you add Peter Jackson and all the LOTR fans. Secondly, now audiences are pre-conditioned for a movie like KK to open in the Winter. Lastly, Peter Jackson has never made a boring movie so that will help. Don't compare Emmerich to Jackson. That is like comparing Warhol to Van Gogh. It should open huge and have a good run through the New Year. I think it will make $250m (bare min. $200m I will do a BKB and shout it until the end of the year), it could make much more.

IMDB 5.3
http://imdb.com/title/tt0074751/