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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Hmmm...normally, I'd give it a $20+ million opening weekend. The trailer looks really good. Like a summer blockbuster much rather than a movie dumped on the pre-Labor Day weekend.
But as it stands:
Opening weekend - $14 million
Total gross - $40 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:11 pm |
 
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Schlomo
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 10:09 am
Posts: 1097
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I'm thinking this could suprise and beat out The Cave for the number 1 spot on the 26th...
18/45
_________________revolutions wrote: that one dude with the giant ass mi:3 logo
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| Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:15 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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I would say STUCK ON YOU-esque numbers.
_________________   1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:33 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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People here keep saying this is getting almost no advertising but I'm seeing TV ads regularly. How about you all? How do you judge the level of advertising?
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| Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:12 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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In the past week, a lot of advertising.
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| Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:20 am |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am
Posts: 9808
Location: Suisse
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17/45
They play the Trailer very often overhere. I think it just looks soooooo stupid. But then...It looks sooooo stupid that for that reason some people will go and see it.
But I guess it will not justify its 80 Mio Budget.
_________________Libs wrote: FILMO, I'd rather have you eat chocolate syrup off my naked body than be a moderator here.
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| Sun Aug 21, 2005 4:56 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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It has finally started picking up on advertising, but I really don't think the public awareness is here. Still thinking a sub-$15 million opening.
_________________
See above.
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| Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:00 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Personally, I really hope for a break-out, but I doubt it. It still should easily beat The Cave, though and get #1 for the weekend.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:53 pm |
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Erendis
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Emyn Arnen
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TV advertising is up -- they played it during the Sunday afternoon sports shows. The commercial I saw was playing up the dark aspect of it, ("Two brothers, facing the Ultimate EEEvil"- type voiceover) with a couple boomie money shots. But with only an $80M budget, those boomies in the commercial might be all the boomies there are total. Matt Damon is probably a sizable chunk of the budget.
Dr. Lecter wrote: Hmmm...normally, I'd give it a $20+ million opening weekend. The trailer looks really good. Like a summer blockbuster much rather than a movie dumped on the pre-Labor Day weekend. I agree. When the trailer looks like an early summer opening but the movie is a late summer opener dump, I gotta wonder about the script. As in, the studio is predicting bad WOM and decided to aim for frontload.
I'll modify my prediction for frontload: $23M/$72M. Still good enough to be a DVD hit.
_________________
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:13 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Erendis wrote: TV advertising is up -- they played it during the Sunday afternoon sports shows. The commercial I saw was playing up the dark aspect of it, ("Two brothers, facing the Ultimate EEEvil"- type voiceover) with a couple boomie money shots. But with only an $80M budget, those boomies in the commercial might be all the boomies there are total. Matt Damon is probably a sizable chunk of the budget. Dr. Lecter wrote: Hmmm...normally, I'd give it a $20+ million opening weekend. The trailer looks really good. Like a summer blockbuster much rather than a movie dumped on the pre-Labor Day weekend. I agree. When the trailer looks like an early summer opening but the movie is a late summer opener dump, I gotta wonder about the script. As in, the studio is predicting bad WOM and decided to aim for frontload. I'll modify my prediction for frontload: $23M/$72M. Still good enough to be a DVD hit. Hmm, you are predicting a 3+ multiplier still. Not that frontloaded then? _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:15 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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I'm revising my predictions due to all the ads...
OPEN: 15.5
CLOSE: 39.8
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:18 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Hmmm, looks like I'll go wwith what I read here. The marketing campaign apparently went up a couple of notches.
Opening weekend - $15.4 million
Total gross - $42 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:26 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6145
Location: New York
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Oh yes, I've definitely seen a good amount of advertising, but there's a disparity in the tone of the trailer and that of the commercials, so people might go in expecting something different from what they'll get.
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:50 pm |
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Mister Ecks
New Server, Same X
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:07 pm
Posts: 28293
Location: ... siiiigh...
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I'm not feeling anything for this, either. I'm not saying I'm the be all to end all of predicting movies, because I'm not. I just don't feel anything.
Open: $10.2m
Total: $26.4m
_________________
Ecks Factor: Cancelled too soon
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:51 pm |
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BubbaGump
:-)
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:16 pm
Posts: 1438
Location: Brea, CA
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This movie should do well if it was released in more theaters.
OW: 14
Final: 55
_________________"Fear is the path to the Dark Side  . Fear  leads to anger  . Anger leads to hate  . Hate leads to suff-e-ring  ." -Yoda
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| Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:59 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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I haven't given a prediction in my own thread yet so here goes. 21m opening, 65m total. But I'd love for it to be bigger.
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:37 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am
Posts: 34865
Location: Maryland
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I get a SKY CAPTAIN vibe from this. Both had moderate starpower (Law, Paltrow, and Jolie together should about equal Damon and Ledger), a sort of off-the-wall visual style, and ads that promoted old-fashioned, summer-ish fun.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:50 am |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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I'm still not feeling anything with this film. The film just doesn't look that appealing. Its production design is even derivative to anyone that has seen 'Sleepy Hollow.' The marketing doesn't convey a consistent tone. Some ads play up the action aspect, others the quirky comedy. Damon isn't enough of a star to overcome all the negative attributes, as Stuck on You (A film I liked) proved. His costar Ledger clearly isn't anything of a star, which doesn't help matters.
11/30
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:14 am |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm
Posts: 10266
Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Marketing has been just fantastic, in my opinion. Makes it look like the light comedy fantasy film that could even appeal to kids. It won't do anything superb, but it will open just fine, in my opinion.
PEACE, Mike.
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:37 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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I still don't think there's much interest for this film, but I won't argue with the tracking numbers. Plus, marketing has picked up, so...
Opening: $13 millon
Domestic Total: $35 million
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:29 am |
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Erendis
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Emyn Arnen
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Erendis wrote:
I'll modify my prediction for frontload: $23M/$72M. Still good enough to be a DVD hit.
Hmm, you are predicting a 3+ multiplier still. Not that frontloaded then? I'm no good at multipliers.  What's considered a frontload multiplier? 2?
_________________
I'm not around much anymore because I don't have time (or permission, probably) to surf the 'net from my new job.
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:35 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Erendis wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Erendis wrote:
I'll modify my prediction for frontload: $23M/$72M. Still good enough to be a DVD hit.
Hmm, you are predicting a 3+ multiplier still. Not that frontloaded then? I'm no good at multipliers. What's considered a frontload multiplier? 2? Hehe, depends on the type of a movie, but in the case of this one, probably 2.5-2.7 _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:50 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 38018
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My guess: 15.1/41. Reviews are bad and WOM is likely to be too, so bad multiplier.
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| Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:41 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Revised predictions:
Opening weekend - $15.9 million
Total gross - $45 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:27 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Final prediction...
$15.4 million opening, $43.1 million total.
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| Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:46 am |
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