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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21526
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 June 14-16 Predictions I’m now feeling that Inside Out 2 will underperform. It hasn’t sold well around me
Inside Out 2 85m
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:10 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Expecting a bigger Elemental here. Underwhelming OW but solid legs. Should have opened a week earlier, DM4 just feels like it's going to be a monster. Given the state of Pixar, a $60M+ OW would be a win in my book here.
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 1:25 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19399
Location: San Diego
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Yeah not expecting 100m anymore. I think if it's well received maybe it can do close to the first one's OW. I'll say 77m for now.
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 1:33 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40448
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions I agree 80 mil is fine for this if it legs out until Despicable Me 4.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 2:47 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21526
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions I think the stigma of a bunch of sequels that weren’t well received from Pixar is keeping buzz for this from getting too high. In a world where this comes out before Lightyear, Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2, Cars 3 and Finding Dory, it’s easily HUGE.
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 4:24 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68292
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions You guys keep reducing its bar for success, lol. Before it was $150m, then $100m, now you'll take $80m.
It's going to do poorly. Nobody wants this sequel.
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:07 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6753
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions I am definitely expecting 100m+ OW. Presales are already accelerating big time.
As of now expecting 10m ish previews and 100m+OW. Will see on wednesday if it can go higher(or if final week surge take it lower).
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:20 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21526
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Really? Buzz seems low. Our theater is still almost empty
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:52 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6753
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions zwackerm wrote: Really? Buzz seems low. Our theater is still almost empty I cannot say its doing great in all theaters. But there are enough data points at this point to see it accelerate big time and where it stands to other family flicks at similar point. I think its primed for a big OW at this point.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:40 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23320
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Still looks like a 75-95m opener to me. Cant see a major underperformance even though it will make less than it would have 5 years ago.
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| Mon Jun 10, 2024 1:12 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions For reference, Inside Out (2015) now adjusts to about $120.3M.
So it can lose 1/2 of its audience and a $60M+ OW would still be respectable for it. The benefit it has is lowered expectations since Pixar hasn't had a breakout on the upside since TS4 in 2019.
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| Mon Jun 10, 2024 1:32 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68292
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Now $60m is acceptable. LOL, you guys
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| Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:21 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6753
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Its definitely not decreasing from the last movie. I am at this point willing to bet on it. 100m+ is happening for sure.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:37 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68292
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions I do find it hard to see how it will do so well, though. Doing $100m just doesn't seem possible in 2024. Especially considering the highest opening so far this year has been $82.5m. Going to the movies just doesn't seem popular right now.
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| Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:53 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 21526
Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions What movie do you think would have done 100m in a normal year?
Dune is incredibly niche and it’s amazing it did 82.5m. Godzilla x Kong was never going to do 100m.
Inside out is easily the highest profile release so far this year.
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| Mon Jun 10, 2024 7:06 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6753
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions I am now thinking even 120m OW is in play. It is behaving like Minions did in its final few days of Presales while its already at much higher level than Minions.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Tue Jun 11, 2024 12:34 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19399
Location: San Diego
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Well damn. If it does those #s I think it's more telling of how beloved Inside Out is. Nice to see.
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| Tue Jun 11, 2024 1:53 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40448
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Wait a breakout hit is still possible?
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue Jun 11, 2024 4:24 pm |
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flip1
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:02 pm
Posts: 249
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions 117m
27m for Bad Boys, Father’s Day will be big for it
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| Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:02 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions By Thursday we may be about $190M away from $3B to FINALLY pass that threshold (or at least on M/Tu). That would be 33.7% of last year's box office gross with 45.1% of the calendar year done by Thursday.
The second half of the year is more promising that the first half but need some big overperformers soon.
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| Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:12 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3217
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions I'll be bullish and say $100M even.
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| Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:37 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19399
Location: San Diego
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions 90% on RT. Average is 7.4 though but good enough
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| Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:07 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32601
Location: the last free city
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Keyser Söze wrote: I am now thinking even 120m OW is in play. It is behaving like Minions did in its final few days of Presales while its already at much higher level than Minions. I’ll be overjoyed with just $100m
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:39 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40448
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions 90% is great considering some of the average reviewed PIxar movies recently
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:11 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6753
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Re: June 14-16 Predictions Based on presales seen until today I am thinking 11m previews and 125m OW. Its going Kray at this point.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Thu Jun 13, 2024 12:44 am |
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