For the 5-day I'm gonna go with...

Madame Web - 39
Bob Marley: One Love - 29

Bob Marley with the breakout

MW ~ 20m over 6 days (till Presidents Day). Looks like a huge Bomb
Marley OD is looking like high single digits and even double digits is in play. But its presales post OD resemble Color Purple !!!. I am thinking mid 20s over 6 days.

Oops, forgot about Pres Day

I feel like Marley is going to hold better than The Color Purple. Bob Marley is really popular across a broader segment of the population and i think will have a lot more appeal for general audiences as a biopic and music icon that literally is playing at almost every beach resort in the world.

Noone wanted a Colour Purple remake. One Love actually looks appealing enough.

I'm going with:

One Love: $33m 6-day
Madame Web: $26m 6-day

The bar is so low at the box office right now that Webb and Marley doing $15M+ would now be a win.

Everyone likes Bob Marley. Lots of college bros into him, girls, both white and black people, moms can appreciate him. I guess I'm not sure how Gen Z feels about him though.

People like Bob Marley songs but the movie has horrible reviews and i'm not sure enough people are like fanatically devoted to him to see a bad movie about him. $15-20m 6-day.

Madame Web looks like a catastrophic bomb and I bet Sony wish they would've pulled a Batgirl. It's kind of funny seeing the talentless nepo baby lady in such a thankless D-tier superhero role though. $10-$15M 6-day.

I don't see Madame Web doing well, but it looks really fun and I'm looking forward to seeing it on Wednesday.

I'm sure audiences will like One Love more than critics, but those reviews are awful. I could see it being pretty heavily front-loaded because of it. Die-hard Bob Marley fans will likely show up early on. I don't see casual fans or non-fans caring. It would be different if it had great reviews.

Day after SB, Marley sales have almost doubled from yesterday and now I think double digit OD could happen if momentum continues till VD. Its presales beyond still look like Color Purple.

Madame Web will do less than half of Marley on OD. NO change in my expectations for this one which looks DOA to me.

20% start for Madame Web on RT. Lol

Monday #'s. Encouraging for ABY

Anyone But You $285,000 +14% $80,360,470
Wonka $235,000 +1% $205,418,453
Aquaman $100,000 -13% $122,427,861

Just $19.6M to go!

Guessing the Monday #s were boosted by a depressed Sunday?

Marley's sales last 2 days have been insane. If it has good walkups even low teens OD is in play. Presales after VD is just over 10% of OD presales !!!

Madame Web is looking like hitting 5m OD. it also had good sales over past 2 days and its presales post OD also is meh and is only slightly behind Marley. I am thinking Marley will win but it will be close.

The reviews of Webb are so horrendously and unintentionally bad. Maybe people want to find a way to break up this Valentine's Day and it's a good way for them to do it by taking them to see it?

Tuesday #'s:

Anyone But You Sony Pictures $465,000 +13% $80,825,729
Wonka $335,000 -14% $205,752,290
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $130,000 -30% $122,557,872

Hoping ABY can get to $2M tommorow. We'll see. $19.2M to go.

Despite having the stench of bomb all over it Morbius still made 73m. Madame Web is probably going to do wayyyy less than that.

The reviews are just

From RS review: Madame Web isn’t as bad as its somewhat botched promotional campaign might suggest. It is, in fact, way worse. It is the Cats: The Movie of superhero movies. ...a Showgirls of comic-book cinema.

UPI: A new low for superhero debacles … At least Catwoman and Batman & Robin believed in what they were doing.

USA Today: “Worst superhero movie since Morbius.”

3C Films: … an embarrassing mess. Probably the worst comic book movie I have ever seen.

Theater counts for this weekend's holdovers:

Argylle 3,645 +40 Why?
Lisa 3,143 -1
The Beekeeper 2,557 -500
Migration 2,447 -237
Wonka 2,302 -462
Anyone But You 2,020 -785
Mean Girls 1,350 -1,270
Night Swim 980 -382
Aquaman 856 -507
American Fiction 803 -659
Poor Things 680 -610
The Boys in the Boat 586 -521
The Color Purple 258 +70

ABY is losing 28% of its theaters so combined with the Marley/Madam duo post Valentine's Day looks to have a tough weekend ahead. $100M is 100% out. Mean Girls will also fall off a cliff losing half of its theaters.

I’m hearing bad things as well about the film. Sony owns all Spiderman related characters for movies. Only way they lose them is if one isn't in production for an established number of years. So they keep making ANYTHING to keep rights. And because Peter Parker is part of crown jewel franchises (Miles, MCU) they are trying to strike gold with secondary characters. I’m sure they are frantically looking for non Venom franchises that they can rely on. I think they should just give up.

Could have just been happy with their Venom spinoff franchise being a thing. Could have just use the other Spider-Man villains in those and if the audiences wanted more, they could have given them more. But nope, instead we get Morbius, Madame Web and Kraven stinking up the whole scene and contributing to the downfall of good superheros movies like The Marvele.

They could have made bank with a Doc Oc or Goblin movie. Or even a live action Miles Morales film.

What a trio