Take with a grain of salt since it's still so early but here's DHD's update:

Night Swim $4.7M / $11.5M
Wonka $3.8M -56% / $12M -46% / $162.2M
Migration $3M / $10.7M -37%/ $78.2M
Aquaman $3M / $10M -45% / $99.5M
Anyone But You $3M -9.1% / $9.5M +9% / $43.7M
The Boys in the Boat $1.5M / $5.25M -37% / $33.1M

https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office ... 235695828/

HUGE for ABY! That type of weekend could push it to $100M!!! Would need a 6.93X multiplier to get there if that weekend does happen and it has a holiday next weekend.

Those would be weak increases for Wonka and Migration but fine I guess.

Aquaman needs to get to $136.7M to match the legs of its 2018 predecessor. Considering how close it will get, the bad press, being a sequel, and demise of superhero movies, it's really a big surprise how well it's been doing. Yes it's down from a $1.1B grosser but for comparison's sake, Marvel's is wrapping up its run today at $84.5M.

If ABY pulls off $100M, it would have made 6% of its total gross on opening weekend. How impressive is that? In the last 30 years only Titanic and The Greatest Showman would have held better after opening wide in December.

I took a look at movies that opened wide in Dec ($2.5M+ OWs), taking out Oscar expanders. I wanted to get a view of movies that started wide. I realize some of these have 500-800 theaters but these would probably have been wide for that time.

1 Tootsie $5,540,470 3.10% 943 $177,200,000 1982
2 9 to 5 $3,966,832 3.80% 910 $103,290,500 1980
3 Rain Man $7,005,719 4.10% 1,248 $172,825,435 1988
4 Saturday Night Fever $3,878,099 4.10% 504 $94,213,184 1977
5 Out of Africa $3,637,290 4.20% 922 $87,071,205 1985
6 Titanic $28,638,131 4.80% 2,674 $600,683,057 1997

7 Superman $6,535,784 4.90% 806 $134,218,018 1978
8 The Greatest Showman $8,805,843 5.10% 3,006 $174,340,174 2017
9 48 Hrs. $4,369,868 5.50% 850 $78,868,508 1982
10 Grumpy Old Men $3,874,911 5.50% 1,244 $70,172,621 1993
11 Absence of Malice $2,427,365 6% 816 $40,716,963 1981

That would kinda suck for Wonka. Beating the 2005 version no longer guaranteed.

Anyone But You is the new story of the season.

New rom-com out next Christmas guaranteed. The success of Anyone But You is nuts. They need to keep it off streaming until its run is pretty much done.

5.2m OD for Night Swim. Not bad.

Iron Claw and Boys in the Boat look to barely drop from last weekend as well.

Both could do 50m+

1. #NightSwimMovie - $5.22M
2. #WonkaMovie - $4.30M
3. #AnyoneButYou - $3.25M
4. #Aquaman - $3.10M
5. #MigrationMovie - $2.95M
6. #TheBoysInTheBoat - $1.79M
7. #TheIronClaw - $1.32M
8. #TheColorPurple - $1.30M

https://twitter.com/BORReport

Much better for Wonka with half a million higher than early estimates. Anyone But You up a little too, but Migration is actually down. I guess Sidney Sweeney is this years Puss In Boots, not a bunch of quacking ducks.

ABY needs to get to about $119M to match the legs of TGS. The fact that is even theoretically possible is bonkers!

There were changes in theater counts so here's the PTA analysis to show which films are showing better legs than purely reflected by their weekend drops:

Movie / Theater Change / PTA% Change

Wonka -234 -47.14%
Anyone But You 0 -1.57%
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom -234 -51.09%
Migration -127 -54.73%
The Boys in the Boat 130 -38.18%
The Iron Claw -402 -9.67%
The Color Purple 15 -68.74%
Poor Things -50 -23.77%
Trolls Band Together -380 -40.16%
American Fiction 74 -13.98%
Wish -365 -43.45%
All of Us Strangers 36 -49.01%
Napoleon -413 2.44%
Godzilla Minus One -130 -93.07%
The Holdovers -84 -25.89%
Memory 12 -52.75%
The Zone of Interest 0 -32.32%
Killers of the Flower Moon -2 -12.66%
Radical 6 -37.18%
Oppenheimer 2 -69.17%

The Iron Claw is doing sensational and isn't that far off from ABY but has a smaller gross and theater count. Also very good expansion for American Fiction. PTA barely will drop this weekend.

So Fiction will have seen PTA drops of -4.3% and -13.98% the last two Fridays. That's a 14% PTA drop from almost tripling the theater count. It won the People's Choice at TIFF so maybe it can have a great wom driven run as well.

Trolls Band Together is also set to pass $100M this weekend. Easy to forget this movie exists but it had a nice little run.

Go Iron Claw.

Anyone But You may bring on a romcom renaissance, here for it.

Feel this is a really promising sign for Challengers. Zendaya as the star of Euphoria, 1 month after Dune 2 breakout, rise of romantic movies + pre summer April release, is hinting toward it.

For comparison, two Euphora stars. Sydney_sweeney 16.4M followers IG. Zendaya 184M.

There's a playbook here they'll be able to build on that worked for ABY.

Add in a score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross and it's primed to be a zeitgeist type breakout if the quality is there.

Anyone But You, Boys in the Boat and Iron Claw are going to combine for like 180m, about the difference between Aquaman 2's real performance and if it had come out in non superhero fatigue era and made 300. Pretty interesting way the vacuum got filled and great for mid level films. I don't think the Marvels bomb had as direct a connection to other films success, as Hunger Games was probably always going to be at least somewhat successful (140-150). I guess Godzilla and Heron benefitted eventually, and even though it came out the week before FNAF might have benefitted from the extra buzz vacuum of nobody caring about the Marvels.

It's fascinating to look at how the first Trolls opened the same month as Moana, which made over 50%+ more than Trolls 1 in America, and then this third one came out (after the second one went straight-to-VOD) the same month as another Disney animated film, one sold as its big centennial centerpiece, and Trolls 3 ended up making 50%+ more than it.

HG benefitted from legs and dearth of product. It's run was significantly leggier than all of its predecessors, none of which could pull a 3X multiplier. $162M when this easily could have done <$100M.

The mid to small size movies that could have easily done <$10M are plentiful though and promising as young people are driving a lot of them:

Godzilla Minus One $47M+
The Boy and the Heron $37M+
Anyone But You $37M+
The Boys In The Boat $30M+
Iron Claw $22M+
Saltburn $11M+
Holdovers $18M+
Poor Things $13M+

We could get a $100M+ contribution from Japanese films (aside from Mario), $100M+ from a rom com, and $150M+ tallies from smaller awards hopefuls. It feels like the mid range movie is making a big comeback. Poor Things for instance could very well be at $25M without even going to more than 800 theaters. It looks like it's box office could go significantly higher with 2 months of awards season left.

The only glaringly bad # this weekend is The Color Purple.

Iron Claw is emerging as a great story itself in Anyone But You's shadow. Also quietly Poor Things being up to 14 million despite never being in more than 700-800 theatres seems pretty good, go wider when the Oscar nominees come out?

Night Swim was a few weeks too early, better off just claiming one of the late January weekends. Escape Room did good in this spot but it had Glass in late January to avoid.

15 movies over $1M+ without 1 above $15M is super promising for the year in terms of the breadth of movies that can be hits.

Highlights:

-ABY had an incredible increase with no change in theaters. A chance it goes up next weekend.
-The Iron Claw actually beat ABY for PTA increase (+12.8%). It's now had 3 weekends in the $4.5-4.9M range and is showing great consistency. Looks headed for $50M+.
-Boys In The Boat had a great hold. Quietly going to make it to $60M+.
-Aquaman is a highlight at this point. It needs a 4.77X multiplier to get to $140M and has a long weekend and dull January so has had solid legs that surpassed my expectations.
-Poor Things is already at $14.3M and has only had 1 $1M+ day over 31 days. 5.8% PTA drop. It's likely to be at $25M+ before Oscar noms are even announced. Feels like this could do $50M+.
-HG is $10M away from Mission Impossible. If it can hold onto theaters still may catch up to IJ.
-Trolls passes $100M.
-American Fiction had an impressive expansion. 13.8% PTA drop from tripling count.
-The Zone of Interest has had a PTA of about $14K for 3 straight weekends. Only 6 but good!

Lowlights:

-Migration should have held better but read 42% of kids are still out of school. Still has an empty market and long weekend next weekend but should have held better.
-Wonka did ok and will clear $200M but feels like a moderate performer now.
-Ferrari hasn't gotten to $20M yet. Really subpar performance.
-The Color Purple hasn't reached $55M. I still think there's a chance it has a great MLK though.

-------------

Updated total approximates:

1 Wonka $220M (-$20M)
2 Hunger Games $170M (+$2M)
3 Migration $135M (-$25M)
4 Aquaman $135M (+$3M)
5 Trolls $104M
6 Anyone But You $100M (+$15M)
7 The Boys in the Boat $69M (+$6M)
8 The Color Purple $68M (-$2M)
9 Wish $65M
10 Napoleon $63M
11 Godzilla $60M (+$1M)
12 The Iron Claw $50M (+$16M)
13 The Boy and the Heron $48M (+2M)
14 Poor Things $45M (+$13M)
15 Ferrari $23M

Last weekend’s numbers were inflated by T-Mobile $5 off promo, which makes Anyone But You’s increase this weekend even more impressive!

With people being into mid level films right now could the Oscar nomination bounce be great this year? The late January schedule being dead and nominations announced Jan 23rd sounds perfect for people going to movies like Poor Things, American Fiction, etc.

Thank goodness Poor Things is not universal or it would be on streaming already. Still upset they pulled the Holdovers from theaters so quickly.

Tonight will be a good indicator of that. Let's see how big the Golden Globes go ratings wise. With Barbenheimer and smaller movies audiences seem excited about, it looks promising.

January looks promising for awards hopefuls expanding like Poor Things, American Fiction, and Zone of Interest. Still opportunties for Anatomy of a Fall, All of Us Strangers, Taste of Things to take advantage too.

Past Lives should get a re-release. A lot of people would see it even if its available at home.

Also, a crazy stat, Color Purple looks like it may be at #6 for Dec movies despite the second biggest Christmas day opening of all time! If Godzilla, Iron Claw and Poor Things catch up to it hypothetically, could drop as low as #9 for the month.

The Holdovers in regular times should've done 50m+ total lol