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 December 29-January 1 Predictions 

Will Aquaman or Migration gross more in weekend 2?
Aquaman 33%  33%  [ 1 ]
Migration 67%  67%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 3

 December 29-January 1 Predictions 
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Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Post December 29-January 1 Predictions
Ferrari actually did ok on Monday. If it follows similar movies, it can do over 20m total.

Predictions for totals through January 1st
The Color Purple 30m/41m 4 day/95m total
Wonka 26m/35m 4-day/135m total
Migration 22m/28m/66m total
Aquaman 18.5m 3 day /23m 4 day/86m total
The Boys in the Boat 16m/21m 4 day/40m total
Ferrari 8m/10.5m/20m total
Anyone But You 6m/7.5m/ 29.5m total
The Iron Claw 4.5m/6m/22m total
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes 2.5m/3.5m/160m total


Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:47 pm
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Devil's Advocate
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Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
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Post Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
Damn Boys in the Boat 40 mil after a week would be impressive

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Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:53 pm
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Post Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
I am underwhelmed by Migration's current numbers.

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Tue Dec 26, 2023 6:31 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
Annual box office is $8,643,936,269 as of Monday. Add in 4 early estimates for Dec. 26th grosses and that's another $31.5M. Add another $12M conservatively for other Dec. 26th holdovers.

That leaves $8.687B. Can we make $313M over 5 days? Ballpark give $30M daily total to Wed and another $30M daily total to Thursday, would bring us to a $253M gap.

Last weekend made $138,732,293 total with Christmas Eve. 2017's grosses NY went up 8.9% over Christmas over comparable days so that would give a weekend gross of $151.1M, leaving a gap of $102M short of $9B.

Ever so close but at least the 2023 box office is projected to be up +20.77% for the year.


Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:02 am
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
Rough weekend projections based on dailies and some historical patterns and random guesses:

The Boys in the Boat 16m/21m 4 day/40m total

1 Wonka $27.08M +50% $138.0M
2 Migration $19.30M +55% $56.4M
3 Aquaman $17.2M -38% $75.5M
4 Color Purple $14.6M NEW $46.9M
5 Anyone But You $9.3M +55% $25.4M
6 Boys In The Boat $8.7M NEW $22.3M
7 Iron Claw $4.76M -2% $16.1M
8 Ferrari $4.0M NEW $10.9M
9 Hunger Games $3.8M +24.8% $160.9M
10 Godzilla $2.91M +10% $46.2M

-Wonka slightly improved it's retention with Jumanji (2017) so could be not that far off from that increase (+38.4%). More family skewing so maybe a bigger increase.
-Migration giving higher than Puss' second weekend increase given better dailies.
-Anyone But You I feel could pull a little less than a La La Land type increase.
-Color Purple I went with Concussion to extrapolate possible similar demo pattern but accounting for rush out.


Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:40 am
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
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Post Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
O wrote:
Annual box office is $8,643,936,269 as of Monday. Add in 4 early estimates for Dec. 26th grosses and that's another $31.5M. Add another $12M conservatively for other Dec. 26th holdovers.

That leaves $8.687B. Can we make $313M over 5 days? Ballpark give $30M daily total to Wed and another $30M daily total to Thursday, would bring us to a $253M gap.

Last weekend made $138,732,293 total with Christmas Eve. 2017's grosses NY went up 8.9% over Christmas over comparable days so that would give a weekend gross of $151.1M, leaving a gap of $102M short of $9B.

Ever so close but at least the 2023 box office is projected to be up +20.77% for the year.


Very close to $9b which i think is good as could be expected.

December ended up being quite the overachiever.

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Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:24 am
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