Disappointing that Migration is rebounding much like Puss. Illumination really is becoming the new standard unfortunately.

Will take my first attempt at rough extrapolations so far for the top 15:

1 Wonka $240M
2 Migration $140M
3 Aquaman $107M
4 The Color Purple $85M (could get more if it really takes off MLK weekend)
5 Anyone But You $55M
6 The Boys in the Boat $42M
7 The Iron Claw $32M
8 Ferrari $18M
9 The Boy and the Heron $47M
10 Godzilla $60M
11 Trolls $106M
12 Poor Things $30M
13 Wish $68M
14 Napoleon $64M
15 American Fiction $15M

Annual box office could be at about $8.78B by tomorrow. The gap may be $223M. 3day box office could say be $130M so means we were just one mid performer away from $9B.

Color Purple is frontloaded in a way only few movies can be in this release date. Not surprising considering the presales showed this but I thought the WOM would take it higher with walkups beyond OD and that did not happen.

Anyone But You will probably overtake The Color Purple on Thursday. I knew the lower opening wouldn't hurt ABY much. The holiday stretch pretty much guaranteed that.

Seeing a lot of people not knowing Color Purple is a musical. Think that could be part of why it's not holding well.

Aquaman's weekdays are good enough that it seems it should be so close to 100m by the end of the weekend, that it would be pretty much impossible for it to miss 100m. It's certainly holding better than the Color Purple. Who would've predicted that?

Wonka was not marketed as a musical and is having WAY better holds.

Color Purple had "I'm Here" in the trailer, so people had more reason to believe it was a musical than Wonka.

Anyone But You increased again on Thursday. Damn.

My updated tallies with Wed/Thur grosses.

1 Wonka $240M
2 Migration $150M (+$10M) - It's Thursday, day 7 was it's biggest yet over opening day.
3 Aquaman $107M
4 The Color Purple $78M (-$7M)
5 Anyone But You $65M (+10M) - Exceptional daily increases.
6 The Boys in the Boat $45M (+3M)
7 The Iron Claw $32M
8 Hunger Games $170M
9 Ferrari $18M
10 The Boy and the Heron $47M
11 Godzilla $60M
12 Trolls $106M
13 Poor Things $30M
14 Wish $67M (-$1M)
15 Napoleon $64M

Seeing spikes especially for Migration and Anyone. Best holds compared to last Thursday for non-expanders are Wonka (+90%), Trolls (+35%), HG (+23%), Wish (+10%) and Godzilla (+3%).

Annual box office is at $8,778,371,234 or $221.62M left to $9B. Going to probably miss that by 2 days worth of grosses!

O love your projections. Helps a lot to understand the box office in complicated dates like the Xmas period.

If Wonka pans out like that it's looking at possibly $600m WW. That is a huge huge win for a film that could've easily bombed. Timothee will have his pick of roles now.

Glad it's helpful. It has a HIGH probability for fluctuations but rough picking numbers that we can at least adjust for as we see more data points. The Christmas openers where we only have 4 dailies leave a lot of room for guesswork. Next weekend's holds will allow us to really fine tune projections.

Drops from Christmas Day to New Year's

Anyone But You +9.8%
Migration -6.9%
The Color Purple -82.8%

Aquaman has stabilized pretty well

Color Purple's 4day weekend ($14,855,000) < Color Purple's opening day ($18,150,000)

Hopefully it gets some type of benefit over MLK weekend and additional group viewings but incredibly frontloaded and that was with holiday stabilization. How would it have done without everyone off?

Migration's final trajectory will depend on weekend #3's hold. It's looking really good for it though.

Anyone But You could have made a play for $100M if it started out a little stronger. Due to the lack of movies, if it somehow can make its way to Valentine's Day, perhaps it can have a second wind at the box office. It's primed for a 10X multiplier though so it's a big win.

Tuesday #'s (with % drops from last Tues Dec. 26)

1 Wonka $4,650,000 -48% $144,416,864
2 Migration $3,815,000 -42% $63,007,650
3 Aquaman $3,575,000 -57% $85,294,256
4 Anyone But You $2,385,000 -9% $30,076,976
5 The Boys In The Boat $1,500,000 -50% $25,781,306
6 The Color Purple $1,465,000 -79% $48,126,584
7 Ferrari $674,167 -56% $12,489,827
8 The Hunger Games $625,000 -48% $161,167,631
9 The Boy and the Heron $517,000 -39% $37,065,650
10 Poor Things $471,159 -35% $11,434,420
11 Wish $331,565 -28% $61,353,417

TBD: Iron Claw, Godzilla Minus One, Trolls Band Together

Looking at the last time Jan. 2nd was a Tuesday (2017), Wonka should see a 30%+ decrease or so today. If it follows Jumanji (2017), it will head for about $16M 3rd weekend.

The winner yesterday is Anyone But You. It's down ONLY 9% from last week's inflated day. WOM is there. There's a chance it's third weekend could be above it's opening weekend ($6M+) if it manages decent dailies. So far it's holding insanely well! Passing $30M in 12 days off of a $6M OW.

For comparison sake, even WOM sensation The Greatest Showman on an equivalent day Jan. 2, 2018 was down -28.5%. Anyone But You's 9% is sensational. Hope it carries over to the weekend.

Wow. Hopefully Anyone But You can play till Valentine's Day.

Migration isn't so bad either. For comparison, Puss 2 had $3,289,440 but the equivalent Tues was Jan. 3rd, not the 2nd. Outpacing Puss in the dailies. Migration dropped 41.8% vs Puss 2's -51% from a week earlier. Still so much up in the air given Puss made most of its gross after the holidays but the 3rd weekend will set the pace.

The really crazy thing will be if Anyone But You's 4th weekend is bigger than its first. If it holds well this weekend, then spikes with MLK weekend, it's not impossible. If it follows TGS's Tuesday to weekend ratio, it could pull a 3rd weekend of $8.945M (+2.2%). Not saying that will happen, but it would be bonkers if it goes up. Almost certainly going to pull a 10X multiplier ($60M+) it seems.

Another great day for My Big Fat Anyone But You!

Anyone But You is turning into a nice little sleeper hit. The people demand theatrical romcoms!

The marketing for Anyone But You was pretty weak. I think if Sony had edited a much better trailer and strong push for Valentine's Day release it could've done $100m+. Madame Web could've gone to summer or something.

Also is there another film like The Color Purple to have an OD that high but possibly miss 100m? I remembered Cloverfield and that had a 17m OD and 80m total

Friday the 13th had a $19,293,446 opening day then finished with $65,002,019.
Halloween Ends had a $20,375,495 opening day then finished with $64,079,860

Other horror movies have been in the $14-18M opening day range but these are the ones that missed $80M which it looks like Purple may end up doing without a MLK boost.

I'm also not sure if we can completely rule out $100M for Anyone But You. It's a long, long shot with everything going right for it, but if it manages $8.5M this weekend, it would need a 7.87X multiplier to get there. With MLK in its fourth weekend, it certainly helps. Would also need to hang around till Valentine's Day which is a big iff. The Jan. movies flopping completely would help but feel Mean Girls could give it a bigger 4th weekend drop.

50 Shades Freed had 18.5 OD and barely crossed 100.

I’m really kind of perplexed at how front loaded TCP is. Or is the run good and it just had a perfect Christmas Day? Gonna have to see how every other day without Christmas is.

Wed #'s (*Estimates from ER, rest from The Numbers)

Wonka $3,155,000 -61% $147,523,534
Migration $2,500,000* -60%
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $2,230,000 -63% $87,505,070
Anyone But You $2,150,000 -18% $32,221,658
The Boys In The Boat $1,000,000* -59%
The Color Purple $915,000 -76% $49,039,897

Color Purple goes from $18M day to <$1M day 9 days later.

Migration is above Puss' equivalent Wed of $2,279,245 (-61%). Almost similar % drops week over week.

Anyone But You's miraculous holds continue. Seems like it has a higher likelihood of going up this weekend. On its way to $75M+. Likely will pull a 12X multiplier or better ($72M+)! To put things into perspective, it's Wed gross was larger than its Christmas day tally!

Anyone But You is outlasting all of the other Christmas openers. Damn. Very impressive. I figured it would have good holiday legs as it's a nice feel good comedy, but it's surpassing my expectations.

It should take a hit from Mean Girls next weekend, but the holiday weekend will soften the blow. Then the rest of the month should be smooth sailing. There's nothing else out that's going to make a dent. It could very likely play until Valentine's Day. Hopefully they aren't stupid and put it on demand before that.

Color Purple has gotta have bad WOm to be holding this badly.