Wish 39/55
Napoleon 23/38

Hunger Games -49%
Trolls- -55%

Presales have been weak for both the openers. Wish should be bigger than Trolls considering its opening during thanksgiving but I am hearing reviews will be mixed. Let us see how things go once reviews are out today. For now I am thinking Wish just under 50m until sunday. Napoleon probably under 30m.

Wish starts with a 63 on metacritic.

Probably won't get above the 70's on RT. Disappointing.

RT is also 63% and Top critics avg rating is 5.1. This is going to unchartered territory for a Disney Animation in EONS. I know in noughties there were some stinkers but that was a different era all together.

Wish pretty much feels like a promo for Disney's 100th anniversary that they can tie a movie to making a wish upon a star symbolism so I'm sure it will have branding benefits even if the movie stinks!

WB's 100 year anniversary movies celebrate the accountants that have helped them grow this century by giving them movie write offs to deal with!

Shame to see the weak reviews.

No way it does $35m. It will start slow and if it's good/gets awards attention then it will leg it out. Maybe $35m will be closer to its total.

Mixed reviews for Napoleon don't bode well I'm afraid.

I'm sensing a 3-day weekend around $15M

Wish early shows are looking like 400K based on data I could see. Pretty meh. Of course they started these sales after sales for Tuesday previews and families would prefer to go on a discount tuesday or during thanksgiving. Still thought it would do better. With Mediocre reviews, I am sensing another huge disappointment. May be even sub 40m over 5 days.

That look and the trailer makes me think the characters are staring at social media reactions to the movie and are acting shocked.

I mean I think kids will like it. It’s not terrible just a little sterile and formulaic.

Putting Monday/Tuesday dailies here since we're practically there anyway

Monday:

1. HUNGER GAMES ($5.2M)
2. TROLLS ($3.2M)
3. THANKSGIVING ($1.2M)
4. THE MARVELS ($1.1M)

Marvels manages to stay over $1M? It's a Thanksgiving miracle! Was at $1.2M on Thursday so benefitting from people on holiday already.

I feel that is very strong for Hunger Games. Catching Fire did $12,321,722 the Monday before Thanksgiving after a $158,074,286 weekend (7.8% of its total). By comparison, the new HG is at 11.7%.

Not an exact science here, but CF had an 8.92X Monday to 5day Thanksgiving holiday multiplier. If the new HG follows that it would have a 5day of $46.40M.

Would take its 10 day total to about $104.73M with the Dec. holidays coming. A $150M total would be respectable for it and purely from the Monday number think its on its way.

Hard to tell projection wise on Trolls since original was earlier in November and second was pandemic impacted. However, if I extrapolate it's Monday gross for Trolls #1 the Monday before Thanksgiving to 5day total it would do $23.1M this 5day weekend. It was Trolls' 4th weekend though and lost 16% of its theaters as well. If Wish disappoints would go higher so feels like $30M+ is much more likely over the 5day. It also faced Moana which felt like it had more buzz than Wish does.

Hunger Games has always been a backloaded franchise that recovered super well after front loaded opening weekends.

Thinking it will have a shot at a second weekend drop around 40% and a final total of 140m.

I could see Hunger Games benefitting (especially during the holiday week/end) from being the “main” PG-13 option, with the openers skewing largely older and younger (G and R). Might catch some of the random “it’s a holiday let’s see a movie” crowd.

I like that balance between adult/teen/kid options.

Wish has an outside chance to sell less tickets than Free Birds.