Charlie is saying $6.5M+ right now. $45-50M weekend.

Charlie extrapolates based on the BOT Thread.

Deadline also has chimed in with the same info.



https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office ... 235599363/

Ouch at it being a 3 PM too

Lower. Slower. Closer

Official Disney number is 6.6m. Its going to get ugly.

It looks like the audience skewed towards adult males aka the fanboys only.

It should have its Saturday drop softened by Veteran's day, but looking rough.

its other way around. its a holiday today for many folks and so friday will be "boosted". i could see saturday go below true friday looking at bad WOM.

Pretty bad. I think most people will be pleasantly surprised by the movie though. It is alot of fun ... though I guess, for many people, its even more fun shitting on Marvel on the internet and relishing in its downfall.

Hopefully it will go something like - $6.6 Thurs / $19.4M Fri / $22M Sat / $15M Sun for a $63M weekend ... you can use the holidays to leg it out to $200M from there ... but that's probably being way overly optimistic.

It does sound like it could appeal to the Guardians audience which is the last holdout for MCU.

its not coming anywhere in the ballpark of 60m. best case scenario is 45m. Could go lower as well.

Marvel has hit rock bottom. I'm sure Feige is on the phone with RDJ and Evans as we speak. Nobody cares about the Disney+ characters.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office ... 235599363/

Deadline's projections suck as they forget today there is Veteran's day boost.

How did these people not see the over saturation coming? Absurd.

Gunn's Superman is going to need look and feel completely different than most superhero films if it wants to break out.

B Cinemascore.

I'm not sure what the average ticket price will be for this season going into Thanksgiving / holidays but if tickets went up 3% from Q1 (what I'm using as a ballpark 2024 estimate), Captain Marvel would adjust to $527,464,080.

If the sequel struggles to get to $100M at all it would be an over 80% drop in audience and definitely feels like it would mark the bottom of the trough for MCU. I can't see DP3 miss $200M+ so a rebound starts there.

21.5m Friday. It did do better than how it looked yesterday morning. Veteran's day holiday definitely helped. Let us see how rest of the weekend goes. Looking at high 40s for now.

If it can somehow hit $50m (reception seems positive overall, so maybe some on the fence can give it a solid IM), I suppose it saves some face.

But still, not good of course. The list of negatives about this release was long, so unsurprising, but the hard numbers now will probably force Disney/Marvel to change course moving forward as we've already seen from various reports. It's a bit of a shame though that, if true, they may attempting to bring RDJ, Evans, and others back for more films. That's more of a "desperate", short-term decision than one that can generate long-term success.

WOM isnt good. It got a B score.

It seems like lots of people are going into it with low expectations that are being surpassed, even if it doesn’t cross into “good WOM”.

Super encouraging sign for adult skewing award contenders.

Priscilla, Moon and Holdovers are all putting in solid numbers and in the top 6.

Prescilla's PTA dropped 52% with 1.73X more theaters.
Holdovers PTA dropped 50% with 12.2X more theaters. That's very encouraging going into Thanksgiving.

Moon's PTA dropped 13.2%. Think pre-Halloween weekend was too big a sell for a 3.5 hour movie but more should discover it over the month.

For Holdovers, getting past Sideways ($71,503,593), the last big director/actor pairing would be great though it's already turning into a hit.

47m for the Marvels. Awful. I totally forgot Captain Marvel opened to $150m+. Just crazy.

Deadpool will be big regardless but MCU need a very good film in 2025.

A sequel to a film that was #7 biggest OW of all time missed $50M.

The demographic breakdown is very striking.

65% male leaning!!!
45% men 25+!!
22% women 25+
20% men under 25
14% female under 25!!!

Even for a comic book movie, female directed and majority of the cast, young females rejected Marvels more than any other demo! They should have Swift join the MCU asap!

I was looking at Solo: A Star Wars Story’s flop and its opening looks amazing compared to The Marvels (97 million adjusted) - I guess Star Wars at that time had higher expectations though. Dark Phoenix adjusted (38 million) is within striking distance of the Marvels.

I find it interesting that globally everyone is checking out on superhero movies and other Disney IP milking like Indy 5 at the same time. You’d think that even if American culture was turning on it the other countries might be operating on a different timeline.

MCU still had an unprecedented run from 2008 to 2023.

Pixar 1995 to 2006 when they had Cars critically but Cars was still a $$$ cow for Disney in merchandise. Pixar's heyday probably realistically lasted 1995 to 2015 with The Good Dinosaur though Disney+ reached new lows and gave us performances like Lightyear.

SW is a whole other type of mess. That was going downhill pre-Disney+ based on poor quality control.

Disney can't go 60% theatrical, 40% Disney+. They need to find a balance because it's reduced the value of much of their IP and confused their fanbases.

I think they should try to go the arthouse gritty superhero route. Keep budgets in control but the original Xmen still feels refreshing because it was all new (pre-Spidy) and didn't feel overly formulaic.

Batman Begins had a big budget but still felt so fresh at the time since Batman and Robin got to the cartoony cheesy Batman phase which sort of feels like what some of the comic book movies are trying to force now.

And on IJ5, that was doomed imo in 2013, 2016, 2019, 2023. Sort of like The Matrix 4. A big gap in time couldn't overcome how bad sequels reduced a lot of the value of the original franchise.