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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3130
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 Re: July 28-30 predictions The 7/28 weekend Derby is up! Place your bets.
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| Mon Jul 24, 2023 5:23 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22691
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: July 28-30 predictions What will be interesting for Oppenheimer is how much of a drop it gets for those Barbie fans who saw it as a double feature and were bored/hate it because it wasnt up their alley?
I'm sure it will have some impact but perhaps we won't notice as the hold should be good thanks to unsatiated demand?
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| Mon Jul 24, 2023 9:06 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11547
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Re: July 28-30 predictions I read somewhere that on a survey apparently 6% of Oppenheimer's business were people unable to see Barbie because it was sold out. Not massive.
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| Mon Jul 24, 2023 11:41 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22691
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: July 28-30 predictions That's interesting. Perhaps there were more that missed Oppenheimer. Not easy to catch it considering it is 3 hours long.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 2:37 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Re: July 28-30 predictions O wrote: A few reasons behind the crazy drop for Oppenheimer I expect:
-IMAX driving 26% of the box office gross and still not able to meet a lot of the demand. Even if weekdays help, it will be more beneficial to support Barbie's supply constraints because not everyone has 3 hours mid week to watch it.
-Will be the must see movie next weekend as many chose Barbie first. Especially since it skewed 62% male expect Oppenheimer to get more female audiences in future weekends.
-3 hour run time so more will take their time to see it. Nolan's longest movie ever vs Interstellar (169 min), TDKR (164 min), TDK (152 min), Tenet (150 min), and Inception (148 min) vs Oppenheimer's 180 min.
-Zeitgeist movie so will pull in moviegoers that may have waited to otherwise see it. A watercooler movie that people need to see to be in the know.
-Well reviewed so could lead to repeats.
-OW skewed heavily to younger audiences 18-24 (33%). 18-34 (66%). Older audiences don't always go OW but there's a huge audience yet to watch it that sees Nolan movies.
-Light competition from holdovers and new openers with movies potentially under <$16M other than Barbie. I think these are very compelling reasons to expect a great hold, but -15% is insane. You're basically predicting that Oppenheimer is the next (and bigger) Titanic.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:45 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22691
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: July 28-30 predictions I think both films will fall over 40% this weekend but then hold better later. Would still be amazing.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 10:09 am |
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redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am
Posts: 2483
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Kenspy wrote: O wrote: A few reasons behind the crazy drop for Oppenheimer I expect:
-IMAX driving 26% of the box office gross and still not able to meet a lot of the demand. Even if weekdays help, it will be more beneficial to support Barbie's supply constraints because not everyone has 3 hours mid week to watch it.
-Will be the must see movie next weekend as many chose Barbie first. Especially since it skewed 62% male expect Oppenheimer to get more female audiences in future weekends.
-3 hour run time so more will take their time to see it. Nolan's longest movie ever vs Interstellar (169 min), TDKR (164 min), TDK (152 min), Tenet (150 min), and Inception (148 min) vs Oppenheimer's 180 min.
-Zeitgeist movie so will pull in moviegoers that may have waited to otherwise see it. A watercooler movie that people need to see to be in the know.
-Well reviewed so could lead to repeats.
-OW skewed heavily to younger audiences 18-24 (33%). 18-34 (66%). Older audiences don't always go OW but there's a huge audience yet to watch it that sees Nolan movies.
-Light competition from holdovers and new openers with movies potentially under <$16M other than Barbie. I think these are very compelling reasons to expect a great hold, but -15% is insane. You're basically predicting that Oppenheimer is the next (and bigger) Titanic. Dunkirk dropped 47% and Inception dropped 32%. The Inception number seems unlikely for Oppenheimer. But would be happy if it can have a better hold than Dunkirk. Needs to pull off similar legs to Dunkirk (3.7 multiplier) to reach $300 million domestic.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:12 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11547
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Early reviews are starting to come in for Haunted Mansion and some mentioning weak visual effects.
It cost $158M. Did that mostly go to "star" budgets?
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 5:54 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20369
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Mixed reviews is the final nail in the coffin for HM.
20m should be considered good at this point
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 6:35 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11547
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Re: July 28-30 predictions 56% on RT from 50 reviews and its only Tuesday. Let's see how Rotten this gets...
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 6:40 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
Posts: 6147
Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: July 28-30 predictions O wrote: Early reviews are starting to come in for Haunted Mansion and some mentioning weak visual effects.
It cost $158M. Did that mostly go to "star" budgets? Owen Wilson hasn't been a star since like 2006. Rosario Dawson was never a 'star'. It's giving money laundering.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 6:45 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11547
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Re: July 28-30 predictions It's way too late but I still can't believe they never made a Wedding Crashers 2.
Owen, Vince - Careers have lagged so good opportunity.
Christopher Walken - Will get a boost post Dune 2.
Rachel McAdams - One of her post Mean Girls roles. Still has stayed fairly relevant.
Isla Fisher, Jane Seymore - Not big stars but familiar enough.
Bradley Cooper - Huge star who at the time was pre-Hangover.
Will Ferrell - Has stayed in the public eye.
Now adjusts to $298,649,171.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 6:56 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 38093
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Comedy sequels are pretty hit and miss, maybe it's better they didn't.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 7:06 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22691
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: July 28-30 predictions I do think big star comedies will make a bit of a comeback - but they need to come up with originals.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:11 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6177
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Re: July 28-30 predictions I looked at HM presales and seeing around 3.5-4m previews. Could hit low to mid 20s. Presales are not that backloaded. Last week both Barbie and Oppenheimer were really backloaded despite way higher presales.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 11:00 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20369
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Keyser Söze wrote: I looked at HM presales and seeing around 3.5-4m previews. Could hit low to mid 20s. Presales are not that backloaded. Last week both Barbie and Oppenheimer were really backloaded despite way higher presales. Why on earth would it miss 30m when Jungle Cruise, the closest comparison, did 35m off 2.7m previews? Even 3.5 would be great for previews
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 11:04 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6177
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Re: July 28-30 predictions zwackerm wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: I looked at HM presales and seeing around 3.5-4m previews. Could hit low to mid 20s. Presales are not that backloaded. Last week both Barbie and Oppenheimer were really backloaded despite way higher presales. Why on earth would it miss 30m when Jungle Cruise, the closest comparison, did 35m off 2.7m previews? Even 3.5 would be great for previews Presales are not backloaded at all. That said let me again update tomorrow. I dont know the daily pace at this point.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 11:05 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11547
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Re: July 28-30 predictions The room is there for a Haunted Mansion breakout. Younger families are starved for product so I'm all for another surprise overperformance.
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| Tue Jul 25, 2023 11:07 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21647
Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: July 28-30 predictions O wrote: It's way too late but I still can't believe they never made a Wedding Crashers 2.
Owen, Vince - Careers have lagged so good opportunity.
Christopher Walken - Will get a boost post Dune 2.
Rachel McAdams - One of her post Mean Girls roles. Still has stayed fairly relevant.
Isla Fisher, Jane Seymore - Not big stars but familiar enough.
Bradley Cooper - Huge star who at the time was pre-Hangover.
Will Ferrell - Has stayed in the public eye.
Now adjusts to $298,649,171. Well they tried that google movie, that movie probably killed any chance of a sequel just like Wild Hogs 2 got scrapped after Old Dogs, which is a shame, I had a soft spot for wild hogs. One of the most blatantly homophobic films ever made, but I laughed a good amount. The cast had good cringy chemistry. _________________ Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Wed Jul 26, 2023 2:08 pm |
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pro1986
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:28 am
Posts: 502
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Pre sales look good for HM. Should do close to 4 million in previews so 30 million opening should be the floor. Jungle Cruise opening and run sounds about right. Seems like a film families will enjoy
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| Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:33 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 38093
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Re: July 28-30 predictions I'm surprised. Kind of reminds me of Dungeons and Dragons which I thought was a bomb in the making but ended up doing ok. But that at least had good reviews.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Wed Jul 26, 2023 7:22 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20369
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: July 28-30 predictions If Haunted Mansion does 4m previews, really it should be doing 40m+.
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| Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:44 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3130
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Re: July 28-30 predictions Barbie - $93.6 - $96.1M
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I was blind, but now I see.
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| Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:19 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 67059
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Re: July 28-30 predictions $40 million?? lol, if true that's another performance nobody at KJ saw!  _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
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| Thu Jul 27, 2023 2:53 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6177
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Re: July 28-30 predictions I am fairly confident that Haunted Mansion is not sniffing 40m. Its friday sales are too weak for that kind of IM. Jungle Cruise was able to ride Rock/Blunt stardom that pulled in the audience. I dont see any draw in this movie. Plus with weak reviews and Barbenheimer mania, its going to be a non starter.
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The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Thu Jul 27, 2023 12:08 pm |
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