Joker and Deadpool getting moved will kill this idea real quick, but lets pretend they'll both stay where they are. I think those and The Passion 2 (which was already gonna be huge, but "crowd funding" could push this thing to crazy heights) are the most likely for $400M. Mufasa is the only real spoiler, but I could see that just as easily flaming out and being another massive money loser for Disney.

Joker 2 is going to see a decent drop off, but still Deadpool does have a shot but I’m tired of over predicting x-men films. 350+ for deadpool, 175-250 for Joker.

Passion 2 was slated to begin filming this fall. Not sure if the strikes will affect that schedule, and ultimately the release date.

Last I heard Gibson went back to the screenplay

Beyond the Spider-Verse will have something to say about that

It would be fitting in the new Disney struggle era, but I think the Passion might not make 2024, and at this point it seems like a top 3 movie is going to be an unexpected one like Top Gun/Barbie.

Oh I thought Passion was basically done and set for February. Even without the writers and actors strike it wouldn't make that date if they haven't started yet. Though it could probably do even more during the Fall. Election season will have its core audience all worked up and then it'd have a second run during the holidays.

And yeah Beyond the Spiderverse will probably get a bit of an increase to over $400M.

I'm surprised the original came out in February instead of on Easter.

Wasn't that part of the its genius? The fact that it opened big in February but then also had Easter later on to also cash in on. But let's not forgot that February is the start of Lent, which is related to easter in some way, so I think that was the reason.

Why would Joker 2 get moved? I thought they were done filming already. And they have over a year to do post production. If they need reshoots they could probably do them early next year too, at which point surely the strike will be over.

I'm pretty sure Passion 2 will be delayed a year. Deadpool if delayed should still come out next year. Joker 2 could go either way.

Expect a major delay for Spiderverse. No chance it makes it's release date.

100%

Lent is the lead up to Easter and is a period of self-denial, fasting etc as commemoration of the leadup to Jesus' passion. So they could not have chosen a more perfect release.

They could open it in early October and get a boost from election season, thanksgiving, christmas, mlk, presidents day, lent and easter. The schedule is gonna be so bare that theaters probably won't mind keeping it around for awhile.

Passion 2 being rated R? Well apparently it will focus on the resurrection of Jesus and it is not violent/bloody like the first Passion since of course that involves the Crucifixion which was violent/bloody and it was rated r.

Actually great point. It most likely won’t be rated R. Though I guess it depends what is included because I’m pretty sure Mel will be including other things outside the Resurrection. Perhaps the harrowing of hell and/or the fall of the angels etc.

On HSX, many of the movies are incredibly close. These translate to their 4 week tallies:

Mufasa: The Lion King H$277.23
Deadpool 3 H$251.30
Joker 2 H$249.74
Inside Out 2 H$249.7
Captain America: Brave New World H$234.62
Despicable Me 4 H$217.52

Prices will go up closer to the movies release but really shows 2024 is completely open. I think oversaturation could hit Mufasa, CA especially, but TLK made SO much money that even losing 2/3 of those admissions it will still be massive.

Just 15% separating #1 - #5 right now.

I expect some of the above numbers to go down. Like Cap America 4 and Mufasa. Even Deadpool I am not convinced will be that big and Joker 2 has some questions as well.

New Cap is going to bomb too the way things are going for MCU. I like Inside Out 2 and Joker 2 the most.

Cap and Thunderbolts are out. Mufasa moving to Christmas is a great idea though. Probably guarantees it a top 3 spot.

Cap 4 is a Planet Hulk movie so I think it may do well, but only because New Cap will be sidelined.

Mufasa could be the big winner. Inside Out 2 too.

DP3 and Joker 2 are the only CBM movies that have a chance to win the year.

Hopefully studios can move in some mid size films like The Bikeriders to benefit from lack of major releases.

DP3 is the only MCU movie opening next year, which is crazy considering they regularly were doing 3-4 a year. I think it is smart to add more anticipation to a Marvel theatrical event and help its grosses.

There's no movie coming out first weekend of May! If Twisters 2 is finished early, I think they should make a play at it. The original came out there 28 years earlier and could maybe help it seem like an event film.

I'm very intrigued by Mufasa in Christmas 2024. We've never had a $300M+ full animated movie in Dec but Sing got close. The IP, uniqueness as a Disney prequel, nostalgia, holidays, and dearth of product from the strike could really help it clean up. Dec. is a good move for it.

The only thing I'm sure about is Joker 2 will be massive. It was so universally loved by critics and audiences that the demand for it will be massive. I'm really hoping we get a Joker 2 teaser before Napoleon.

Yeah a teaser with Napolean would be great. Especially now that Phoenix can promote. The upside for Joker is immense.

Mufasa at Christmas would surely be one for the ages. I could see it doing exceptionally well - especially because Mufasa as a character is beloved and this will be original and go over and beyond just a bland remake that the first one was.

BTW - CGI animated LOTR : War of the Rohiram opens at Christmas - not sure what to make of it though?

Twisters 2 can benefit from the weaker market - it's a solid chance at nostalgia breakout (more so than ID4 2).

I've adjusted the Q1 2023 ticket price ($10.81) by 3% to put together an adjusted to 2024 inflation list of all movies 2013 - 2023 ($450M+). Gives perspective for 2024 predictions.

Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens $1,203,785,958 2015
Avengers: Endgame $1,060,752,513 2019
Spider-Man: No Way Home $881,102,459 2021
Jurassic World $855,135,395 2015
Black Panther $849,675,134 2018
Avengers: Infinity War $806,342,666 2018
Top Gun: Maverick $759,979,758 2022
Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi $752,617,441 2017
Incredibles 2 $738,195,183 2018
Avatar: The Way of Water $723,333,790 2022

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $672,974,907 2016
The Lion King $671,651,039 2019
Barbie (Estimate) $$655,080,000 2023
Beauty and the Beast $632,962,686 2017
Finding Dory $625,281,133 2016
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker $612,211,691 2019
Avengers: Age of Ultron $594,030,493 2015
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $590,921,609 2023
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $569,125,291 2013
Frozen II $567,259,182 2019

Frozen $546,292,182 2013
Iron Man 3 $543,902,761 2013
Toy Story 4 $536,324,756 2019
Captain Marvel $527,464,080 2019
Despicable Me 2 $522,132,978 2013
Captain America: Civil War $520,586,423 2016
Wonder Woman $513,763,324 2017
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $511,556,506 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $491,377,814 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $484,971,138 2017

Spider-Man: Far from Home $482,563,902 2019
The Secret Life of Pets $481,823,471 2016
American Sniper $479,665,644 2014
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $479,873,590 2022
Inside Out $473,904,757 2015
Deadpool $470,902,950 2016
The Jungle Book $464,419,447 2016
Guardians of the Galaxy $459,127,314 2014
Furious 7 $456,771,296 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 $453,465,523 2014
Minions $453,324,117 2015

Just makes the drop even crazier