TG3 seems to be in development now at Paramount!

Even without the 40 year wait, the first was so well received feeling this still is headed for $500M+.

Tom is smart to go back to this after Mission Impossible 7.

https://deadline.com/2024/01/top-gun-3- ... 235722328/

Not surprised that Cruise would be interested in this, he just wants to be on a movie set doing stunts and the MI well for that is getting a little drier. The Powell usage in this should be nice.

It will do well, but the environment is not as ripe for it to break out like last time. Still could see it topping 300m in the new era of cinema where only a handful of movies breakout super high anymore. The 2010s are over.

I can't see TG3 come out until 2026 at the earlier. With 3% ticket prices until then, TGM could adjust to $806M by then. Even losing 50% of it's admissions would get past $400M. It has big heartland appeal which drove TGM so don't think it's fall will be as massive as some of the other big tentpoles.

We said this in 2014 when it took 8 months to even get a movie over 300m. The following year we had a film gross 938m, 652m and 458m.

The business will come back and we will have lots of big hits again if
1) people come to associate going to the movies with quality films/experience
2) there is a consistent slate of theatrical releases. Every dry period for new releases, a few more moviegoers learn to do without the cinema. They can be gotten back if they feel like they're missing out.

Man this really shows how relatively less impressive $400m is, these days. By that point (2026), a movie like The Phantom Menace (1999) would probably adjust to, like $1 billion dollars, right?

Yes just a out $1b

Right now $400 m is the adjusted number for the likes of Twilight Eclipse, Batman v Superman, The Firm, Skyfall and the first Hobbit movie.

To put things into perspective, Pixar's first semi "disappointment" at the time A Bug's Life in 1998 would now adjust to about $386M.

Puts things into perspective when you have Elemental just get by $150M in 2023.

Adjusted for inflation, we'd also now have since 2007:
-We'd have 4 movies over $1B+
-10 movies over $800M+
-14 movies over $700M+
-22 movies over $600M+
-40 movies over $500M+

For more perspective:
-POTC3 (2017) which made $309,420,425 would now be a $501M movie.
-Bruce Almighty (2003) and Rush Hour 2 (2001) would be $450M movies.

Top Gun 3 will obviously a huge hit. As will "Barbie 2".

I think a Wakanda Forever type drop would be just fine for it, the second was lightning in a bottle.

That’s the thing, the 2010s did not necessarily have quality movies, but people were getting into a rhythm of seeing whatever was thrown at them. Now people will only go out for a movie that catches their interest which takes a little bit more now than it did five years ago.

Yeah this is what I think too. Huge but not nearly as huge. $300M is the absolute floor.