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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Algren wrote: JustLurking wrote: There is no way this film doesn't clear 200M at minimum in normal conditions, why on earth would a dune film randomly have such a bad DOM:int split, especially considering it's not like DOM was the only market affected? That makes absolutely no sense, China wasn't even a strong market for this!
I seriously struggle to believe you think a film literally being available for streaming on the same day of its theatrical release makes such little impact, the argument just feels like bad faith "I didn't like the film therefore it tanked". I'm not even disputing that But you're dead wrong about this clearing $200 million guaranteed. I simply don't see why this of all films would be so DOM-skewing normally, especially considering the film still came out during covid and so that 300M INT total should reasonably have been higher. It just seems like a foolish claim to me.
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Tue May 23, 2023 3:59 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
It's not really a cinematic type film. I'm not saying it wasn't made with cinema in mind and the cinematography was rubbish. But in terms of the target audience, I don't think cinema was a clincher like, say, F9: The Fast Saga was. It can easily be enjoyed (by those that wish to) in the comfort of one's basement, as I am sure was one of the reasons why day-and-date VOD was approved. Not all films will benefit from being in cinemas. Dune is such a geeky IP that I suspect most of the geeks were happy they didn't have to venture outdoors and speak to people to watch the film. And they probably upvoted it en masse to skew online audience ratings as well.
I also never felt a wave of excitement and a stirring in the entertainment environment when it came out. If a film is something special, you can feel it in such a way. It didn't hit the industry and wow the world. I suspect a lot of people didn't like it or care for it, and will drop off. Those dropoffs will probably be replaced by the geeks that use their once-a-month outing to see the film at a cinema. So that's why I see it making around the same - maybe a small increase, maybe a small decrease - as the first.
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Tue May 23, 2023 4:15 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
JustLurking wrote: Algren wrote: Rev wrote: JustLurking wrote: Algren wrote: $108 million isn't much for such an "epic and breathtaking movie". The sequel really has nowhere to grow, well received or not. I can see it decrease, if even by $5 million. It's not as if the sequel takes the franchise in a new direction. It's just more of the same. More sand, more sand, more Chalamet, more Zendaya, and more sand. Yawn. You could swap the opening titles for both movies and nobody would be able to tell the different, lol 108 million for a film that released on hbo max the same day, during the pandemic...does the fact that it made nearly 300 million overseas (again, during the pandemic) really not suggest that PERHAPS the domestic number in normal conditions would've been just a tad higher? Yah a tad higher not triple it +1 There is no way this film doesn't clear 200M at minimum in normal conditions, why on earth would a dune film randomly have such a bad DOM:int split, especially considering it's not like DOM was the only market affected? That makes absolutely no sense, China wasn't even a strong market for this! I seriously struggle to believe you think a film literally being available for streaming on the same day of its theatrical release makes such little impact, the argument just feels like bad faith "I didn't like the film therefore it tanked". I LOVE DUNE! can't wait for part 2 and I still think it'll do okay domestic but not $300m + the max I see for it is $250m
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Tue May 23, 2023 4:22 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
When even Rev isn't going crazy with his predictions, you know it's a stinker.
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Tue May 23, 2023 4:28 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Algren wrote: JustLurking wrote: There is no way this film doesn't clear 200M at minimum in normal conditions, why on earth would a dune film randomly have such a bad DOM:int split, especially considering it's not like DOM was the only market affected? That makes absolutely no sense, China wasn't even a strong market for this!
I seriously struggle to believe you think a film literally being available for streaming on the same day of its theatrical release makes such little impact, the argument just feels like bad faith "I didn't like the film therefore it tanked". I'm not even disputing that But you're dead wrong about this clearing $200 million guaranteed. Yeah Dune 1 did ok but it wasn't huge and it felt a bit unsatisfying as a film experience because it's only half the story. It was decently acclaimed and got a ton of Oscar noms but don't think it was an instant classic or anything with your average moviegoer. It wasn't Gladiator. The film itself like all of Dennis Villenueve's films also felt a bit detached and cold. I thought it worked well for the Dune universe but I'm not sure if your average audience member would've loved it. Legs weren't exactly great. So I could actually see a fair chunk of the audience of film 1 not returning at all. I would not be shocked at an opening only marginally higher than the first one. Trailer views are also kind of on the low end. The Meg 2 trailer has more views on YouTube...
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Last edited by Barrabás on Tue May 23, 2023 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tue May 23, 2023 4:43 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Algren wrote: When even Rev isn't going crazy with his predictions, you know it's a stinker. STOP IT!
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Tue May 23, 2023 4:45 pm |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Algren wrote: It's not really a cinematic type film. I'm not saying it wasn't made with cinema in mind and the cinematography was rubbish. But in terms of the target audience, I don't think cinema was a clincher like, say, F9: The Fast Saga was. It can easily be enjoyed (by those that wish to) in the comfort of one's basement, as I am sure was one of the reasons why day-and-date VOD was approved. Not all films will benefit from being in cinemas. Dune is such a geeky IP that I suspect most of the geeks were happy they didn't have to venture outdoors and speak to people to watch the film. And they probably upvoted it en masse to skew online audience ratings as well.
I also never felt a wave of excitement and a stirring in the entertainment environment when it came out. If a film is something special, you can feel it in such a way. It didn't hit the industry and wow the world. I suspect a lot of people didn't like it or care for it, and will drop off. Those dropoffs will probably be replaced by the geeks that use their once-a-month outing to see the film at a cinema. So that's why I see it making around the same - maybe a small increase, maybe a small decrease - as the first. No offense but the argument is just getting sillier by the minute. The film was shot with IMAX cameras and a big chunk of it is quite literally in IMAX aspect ratio (which is now 100% for the more action-packed sequel). The film wasn't a day-and-date release because WB deemed it didn't need to be seen in theaters, it was a day-and-date release because WB decided their slate would get fully thrown to streaming to support their streaming machine during the pandemic, which even led to full blown disagreements with Nolan and other creatives (this eventually ended up seeing Nolan leave WB altogether). Case in point, Dune had a huge PLF (and particularly IMAX) share. Your argument is just clashing with reality every step of the way And again, Dune had a really good shelf life and did quite great on home video. Its audience metrics for the kind of film it was were quite good. Pointing out subpar legs (and not even all that subpar: it was still over 2.6...) over a film that was literally already on streaming, during the covid outbreak is moot. It's pointless to argue if your reasoning is to decide the film won't increase because you hated it and then make up random arguments to support it, rather than actually make an informed decision based on things that actually happened regardless of your opinion of the film. The conversation just won't go anywhere this way. See you in october, I guess.
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Tue May 23, 2023 5:04 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Dude, I already said it was made with cinema in mind from a technical point of view. But from a viewer perspective, as in: the target audience, I don't really see them caring if they see it at the cinema or at home. Most of them have been content with seeing the 1984 version in their basement for the last almost-40-years so I think they're used to it. But I did use a double negative when saying it was made for cinema, so I understand if you didn't catch it. #ReadingComprehension
And I didn't even realise we were arguing, lol. I just thought I was putting forth my opinion, and others were chipping in.
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Tue May 23, 2023 5:10 pm |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Algren wrote: Dude, I already said it was made with cinema in mind from a technical point of view. But from a viewer perspective, as in: the target audience, I don't really see them caring if they see it at the cinema or at home. Most of them have been content with seeing the 1984 version in their basement for the last almost-40-years so I think they're used to it. But I did use a double negative when saying it was made for cinema, so I understand if you didn't catch it. #ReadingComprehension I never said you did, so I guess right back at you? Rest of the message is nothing I haven't already answered, so I'll reiterate by saying we'll see what happens. I'll eat crow if Dune2 doesn't atleast pass 200M domestic.
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Wed May 24, 2023 5:03 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
This isn't encouraging for me on Marvels From the director: Quote: “I think superhero fatigue absolutely exists,” DaCosta told Total Film magazine. “The biggest difference from the other MCU movies to date is that [‘The Marvels’ is] really wacky, and silly. The worlds we go to in this movie are worlds unlike others you’ve seen in the MCU. Bright worlds that you haven’t seen before.” I think the forced comedy and silliness in Marvel movies has been feeling more and more dated. It works with Deadpool and an R rating but I'm mixed on if it will work here. Think it's the opposite tone they should be aiming for on this. https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the- ... 235694441/
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Sat Aug 12, 2023 12:27 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Eh. I mean the trailer looks less serious but fun so I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. If it's goofy to the point of it not being enjoyable then that'd be a problem.
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Sat Aug 12, 2023 1:00 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Marvels look like a trainwreck. I am surprised DaCosta did not know about Thor 4 and Ant 3.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:24 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
https://twitter.com/CaptMarvelNews/stat ... 54914?s=20Quote: The plot [of The Marvels] deals with some fluctuations in time and space, and there’s definite danger afoot that could affect the multiverse,” said Livanos. “Where it all leads is a bit of a spoiler, and exactly how it’ll all pan out in an Avengers movie is currently being figured out right now. But we’re definitely ending our characters in places that allow for plentiful opportunity.” #TheMarvels via Total Film
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:27 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Isn't that a longwinded way of saying that the film changes nothing so that more movies/money/universes can be made with the same characters?
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Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:05 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Keyser Söze wrote: https://twitter.com/CaptMarvelNews/status/1690390836188454914?s=20 Quote: The plot [of The Marvels] deals with some fluctuations in time and space, and there’s definite danger afoot that could affect the multiverse,” said Livanos. “Where it all leads is a bit of a spoiler, and exactly how it’ll all pan out in an Avengers movie is currently being figured out right now. But we’re definitely ending our characters in places that allow for plentiful opportunity.” #TheMarvels via Total Film So in the end its a goofball film that kind of leaves to nowhere and thus is unimportant. Add to that the whole multiverse mess which is a bore to just about everyone by now.
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Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:12 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
I really feel this does Eternals numbers at this point.
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Wed Aug 16, 2023 7:24 am |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Captain Marvel would've done about half as much without Avengers hype.
So if this does half of what it would've done originally we're looking at a what, $120M gross?
$45-50M/$120M doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility
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Thu Aug 17, 2023 2:14 am |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
You're crazy man, captain marvel definitely got boosted by endgame but it didn't do TWICE what it would've done normally, wtf?
This isn't going to do half of shang-chi, be real now, jeez lol
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Thu Aug 17, 2023 3:10 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Barrabás wrote: Captain Marvel would've done about half as much without Avengers hype.
So if this does half of what it would've done originally we're looking at a what, $120M gross?
$45-50M/$120M doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility JustLurking wrote: You're crazy man, captain marvel definitely got boosted by endgame but it didn't do TWICE what it would've done normally, wtf?
This isn't going to do half of shang-chi, be real now, jeez lol yes bfr, Barrabás
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Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:52 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Welp. Dune moves to March! This will help Marvels a lot, should move up a week now.
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Thu Aug 24, 2023 6:39 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Zendaya has her other big movie Challengers coming out in April. So it will be the spring of Zendaya!
October 2023 though is SO light. Just watch the Dragon Ball re-release make the top 5.
Hunger Games should seriously considering an October release even if last minute.
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Thu Aug 24, 2023 6:42 pm |
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Skyblade
Wall-E
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 6:07 am Posts: 874
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
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Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:59 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
This seems certain at this point. Dune could win this with as low as 150m total.
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Mon Oct 30, 2023 6:25 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Barrabás wrote: Captain Marvel would've done about half as much without Avengers hype.
So if this does half of what it would've done originally we're looking at a what, $120M gross?
$45-50M/$120M doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility You could be close the way things are going :-)
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Tue Oct 31, 2023 1:24 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Dune Part 2>The Marvels Club
Our 40-60% drop for Marvels box office was too optimistic. With Timothee having Wonka over the holidays, going to open up his fanbase even more going into Dune 2 3 months later. Very hard to see Dune 2 miss $120M where Marvels is heading at best. It made $108,327,830 in a pandemic and with HBO Max release. This club seems sealed at this point. Great call!
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Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:42 pm |
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