The Rise of Skywalker - 175.5m


WW at $373.5m.

The wrong type of Mother of God.

With mediocre legs this could miss a billion. Eep. The holidays should prevent that from happening but jesus.

It wont get to 500m imo, more like 450.

The opening day was mediocre and worrying. Not even hitting a 2x IM? That’s terrible. What a mess. Save us Baby Yoda!

It's funny because $175.5M is still a lot of money, but for a finale in something as hugely popular as Star Wars I definitely see it as underwhelming, especially when the third films in this franchise have increased in the past from their predecessors. People seemed so sure this would follow in the steps of both ROTJ and ROTS too, but unlike those films who at least had Vader as their major selling point this one just didn't have that much of a hook besides being another Star Wars movie.

The OS prospects aren't looking all that encouraging either and makes me wonder if it could actually go under $1B WW if the domestic numbers don't improve.

I'm reserving judgement on this opening. It's OW is closer to Christmas and it has minimal competition in January. It could still make 500M.

Plus Christmas picks are slim pickings so yeah I guess let's see. Jumanji and maybe even Spies in Disguise will benefit.

Absolutely a disappointing opening weekend for TRoS.
I highly doubt it now it beats TLJ Domestic or Worldwide

Oh wells it’ll still make a billion dollars for Disney historic year at the box office.

Let’s be honest. It was on the way down in the quality department starting with Phantom Menace. Not surprised Disney continued this downward trend on quality. We got one last gasp of Star Wars power at the box office, but it’s gone now. They can never lean on nostalgia again, which means they’ll never see the demand that TFA created.

But I also think maybe we will get some better movies if they aren’t tied to the original trilogy. Give us new stories with new characters, preferably much better new characters than what we got from Abrams/Johnson.

Clones ran into a Marvel phenom with Spidey. Even if TLJ didn’t kill Luke and Episode 9 was hyped as Luke v Palpatine, I don’t think it would be able to match Avengers Endgame, certainly not worldwide.

Though there are numerous reasons hurting it currently, I would argue that perhaps the biggest issue is the over saturation of Star Wars at the moment.

Many debated whether or not the Mandalorian would help or hurt TROS. I would argue at this point is almost certainly hurt - lots of casual fans (who do not care enough either way to be upset about THE LAST JEDI) likely got their Star Wars fix from the D+ show and weren't concerned with seeing TROS in theaters. The brand is really overexposed right now which really, really hurt the novelty and hurt the excitement of the Star Wars theatrical brand. Not saying they should retcon things. BUT:

Say Disney put the films away for a few years and then announces a new movie featuring peak Rey Skywalker in his her prime. Say they figure out some way to bring Kylo Ren back, Finn and Poe get recruited to join the new adventure, Luke Skywalker is ever present as a Force Ghost.

I can see hype being huge. How huge is tough to say but if its good, it would no doubt be bigger than TROS.

Those youtube views pointed in the right direction.

But it was retarded to kill Luke after one movie like they did with Han Solo. I can understand Ford not wanting to too many of these movies but they could have "disappeared" until finale or something. some of the best reaction I saw at theater included scenes with Solo/Luke. So have them have even a small role would have helped. Especially if they could have used them in marketing. Solo's appearance in SW7 trailer helped big time for sure.

Its amazingly terrible they did not get the original trio together AT ALL in the first movie. Thats all on Abrams and its crazy

Solo really shouldn't have happened. If anything I bet Solo would've done well as a Disney+ show. It actually would've been perfect as a Disney+ show with that Maul tease. Oh well.

A lot of franchises dip with their last entries, it's just unfortunate that this was more of the Mockingjay Part II of SW as opposed to Deathly Hallows Part II, or even Breaking Dawn Part II.

I am keen to see where it is after this weekend. Last Jedi got to $368m by end of 2nd weekend but that Sunday was Christmas eve.

Should be well over 300m but idk how higher.

I actually think the DCEU and the SWST are a great comparison, in that they had loads of potential, but universe incoherence, rushed production, etc. delivered equally flawed results.

Trackers at BOT are seeing high 20s Monday, which would be 6th biggest ever so there's that lol

I would note that the position you describe is pretty much exactly where Attack of the Clones and Sith fell. In the mid 2000s, Spider-man, Pirates, Shrek, and Matrix all had decisively more anticipated films with many doing more in gross than Star Wars as well. The Dark Knight and Transformers 2 were a few years later and also handily beat Sith's inflated gross. Among the last 6 films, Phantom Menace and Force Awakens are the real anomalies as far as total goes. Sith and Last Jedi also did very well but not the insane heights of the previous films while Clones and ROTS were much below.

Overall the brand is huge but its definitely been oversaturated at the moment.

Weekend actuals - 177.38m



x3 multiplier would be right around Rogue One. If this week is good I could see it getting there.

Folks w/ insider access @ Theory resales are rebust for the next 7 days. Maybe this will leg out a respectable gross after all

Sith crushed midnights due to the sheer volume of screens that wasn't replicated until TDK. Even w. bonkers midnights, its opening day was still several million below Pirates 2. I don't think Sith on a Friday opens to Pirates 2 numbers but it would have been close. Obviously Spider-man 3 out opened Sith as did TDK, Transformers 2 would have had it opened on a Friday too.

Clones obviously is well behind numerous films in terms of opening significance.

SW is huge but PHANTOM MENACE and DA FORCE AWAKENS are anomalies.

Hear hear.

I had a formula I once used to calculate 141m.