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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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2018 vs 2017
Couldn't find a thread for this.
So here we are, after a solid but unspectacular January (that was trailing the previous year by ~5%) YTD is currently up 7.9% thanks to Black Panther.
February will continue to the upward trend but March should see a drop from last year (as there really isn't anywhere near enough this year to counter the Logan/B&B/Kong combo).
Thankfully, BP will still be raking in big $$ come March to help soften the blow.
April however should see an improvement over last year (or at least not dip) with Ready Player One/Rampage/A Quiet Place.
Then May, June and July should be stronger than 2017, especially the former two.
So looking good so far.
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:35 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Now up double-digits over every single year at the same point. February is gonna come frustratingly close to being the first $1 billon February, it looks like - currently at $944 million, it should finish with $980-990 million. Pretty outstanding, although the next two months could be a bust - it is entirely possible that we don't get a single $100+ million grosser until Infinity Wars. So hopefully at least a couple of things break out.
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:50 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Rampage and A Wrinkle in Time will open to 50m and close with well over 100m.
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:54 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Yeah February is going to get really close to a billion, but I don't think we won't have more $100M+ grossers until IW. I think A Wrinkle in Time, Ready Player One, Blockers, A Quiet Place and Rampage all have good shots, but only time will tell. Its obviously going to depend heavily on reviews and marketing.
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:14 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
March is much weaker than usual and especially weaker than last year which was one for the ages.
So that will eat up the buffer that BP is building at the moment. But April should be on par and May and June above last year.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:10 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Dil wrote: Yeah February is going to get really close to a billion Nowhere near actually. It will beat last year, but then more movies were released this year.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:16 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Algren wrote: Dil wrote: Yeah February is going to get really close to a billion Nowhere near actually. It will beat last year, but then more movies were released this year. I believe Feb 2018 is currently at $945m with 3 days to go. So it will be very close. So it already has the unadjusted record currently held by 2012 ($818m). Interestingly, adjusted - the record is held by 2004 (TPOTC) and $962 adjusted. So it will pass that. Also good to see 1997 still holding on to the No.2 spot with $960 adjusted. That was the first year that studios consciously tried to fill the Jan-Apr period with real blockbusters.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:32 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
MadGez wrote: Algren wrote: Dil wrote: Yeah February is going to get really close to a billion Nowhere near actually. It will beat last year, but then more movies were released this year. I believe Feb 2018 is currently at $945m with 3 days to go. So it will be very close. It says $669m here.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:11 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
November/December are weak. March is not that bad, compared to 2011, 2013-15, and any year pre 2010.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:25 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Magnus wrote: You have to look at calendar gross, which is over 900m. Ah, ok. Great, thanks. It is indeed over $900m then. Sorry Dil/MadGez.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:40 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Algren wrote: Magnus wrote: You have to look at calendar gross, which is over 900m. Ah, ok. Great, thanks. It is indeed over $900m then. Sorry Dil/MadGez. Yeah i just took the calendar year gross to date and subtracted the January aggregate gross to get it.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:27 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Yeah so BP is boosting this year nicely. April will be great as well though March will not be upto the mark.
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:40 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Is it BP that's boosting the year, though? If you look at the list I posted earlier, films released in the month of February will be down year-to-year (or just flat). I say it's still the Christmas holdovers that are boosting the year. Jumanji, Greatest Showman, Oscar films...
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:58 am |
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Tower
Speed Racer
Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:22 pm Posts: 125
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Algren wrote: Is it BP that's boosting the year, though? If you look at the list I posted earlier, films released in the month of February will be down year-to-year (or just flat). I say it's still the Christmas holdovers that are boosting the year. Jumanji, Greatest Showman, Oscar films... It will be way up once you include the the post February grosses, and the year was down for 2018 until BP opened.
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:20 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Yes the Christmas holdovers are doing great but its BP that is giving that extra boost to pull ahead of rest of the years. SW7 was the December holdover that boosted 2016 yearly grosses but its BP this time that's giving 2018 the edge.
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:02 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32139 Location: the last free city
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Obviously it’s BP that’s the main boost. 400m + in just 2 weeks
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:11 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Rev wrote: Obviously it’s BP that’s the main boost. 400m + in just 2 weeks The main boost to the month of February, sure. But not to the year so far. It's all laid out in Box Office Mojo's charts. You can see for yourself. February new releases are even from last year. So where is the yearly (so far) boost coming from? It must be 2017 holdovers. Jumanji and TGS obviously are bigger boosts to 2018 than BP.
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:49 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Its a combo of strong holdovers + solid mid size Jan films + BP that has ensured the YTD is up on last year.
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:24 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
I can agree with that.
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:13 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Magnus wrote: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/biggestmonths.htm?page=2&p=.htm
700k short of a billion! Needed some Hollywood accounting to get it over.
Feb 2018 run though gave me a chance to look back at Feb 2012, which was insane at the time and still remains insane today:
-Chronicke/Woman In Black BOTH did over 20m+ on Superbowl weekend. Add in The Big Miracle and the three openers combined for over 50m+)
-The pre-Presidents day weekend saw The Vow/Safe House both do 40m+ but also Journey 2 and Phantom Menance re-release do 22m+. The overall weekend did 192m at the time which was crazy for a non-holiday frame in February
-Act of Valor surprised everyone at the end with a 24m+ weekend
The month had two films break 100m+ within the month (Vow and Safe House) and three other movies (Journey 2, Chornicle, and Woman in Black) get over 50m+. That type of spread out success is dying. Yes! Feb 2012 was insane and an amped up version of what the first half of Feb had become over the years - a chance for a number of films to coexist and become hits. Becoming less and less likely to be repeated these days.
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:25 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
I miss the days when movies used to coexist. Though this year is quite good specially with Jumanji and TGS defying every opener.
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Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:36 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
So this March ended up being down about 30% from last March and put 2018 overall about 6.8% behind 2017, but according to BOM it was still the fourth biggest March of all time, behind only 2017, 2016, and 2012. Considering how most everything disappointed this month, I'd say that's decent enough. This coming April will be very interesting though. A Quiet Place and Blockers not only have breakout potential this weekend, they also have strong leg potential if WOM is as good as the reviews. Then Rampage could be another big opener for Johnson, and Truth or Dare is a Friday the 13th opener that could be another big opening weekend for Blumhouse. And of course Infinity War moving in for the last three days of the month could boost the entire month by at least $250 million. Even if all of those movie disappoint that movie alone could make this the biggest April of all time. But if everything else breaks out...could we see a $1 billion April?
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:53 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Jonathan wrote: So this March ended up being down about 30% from last March and put 2018 overall about 6.8% behind 2017 That can be blamed on Bland Panther.
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:55 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
Yeah this March had no way of matching last year
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:17 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: 2018 vs 2017
The scheduling this month was just awful IMO. I mean just look at that second weekend drop for PR2. Having 3 heavily male skewing films open back to back was really bad decision, because not only are you repeatedly targeting the same audience, but it leaves no room for nothing to truly breakout. Here's hoping that April is much better.
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:50 pm |
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