I know it's a year away, but I've not been following the BO for awhile, and found the lineup pretty interesting.

I am 99% sure that there was a massive tentpole there before that left, because you wouldn't see such an interesting lineup otherwise.

Mortal Engines- I think it looks good, probably not very American friendly, but you never know. Would never have been in that date if the schedule hadn't opened up. Otherwise reminds me of a later summer/August film.

Animated Spiderman- This definitely moved in, as I was sure it was in July. Another really interesting choice. Could do really well and would avert the risk of it being animated/too many Spiderman movies with holiday legs.

Aquaman- Thought this used to be in August? Anyway, once again, a clever choice. Definitely has the winter tentpole vibe, could do really well if it's Wonder Woman like. Expecting a $250m total.

Bumblebee- Pretty sure this was also in summer, like in June. This is going to tank pretty much anywhere since no one gives a fuck about Transformers anymore, but still will be interesting (using that word a tonne) to see how it does in the holidays. Think it could "leg" out a $60m total.

Bohemian Rhapsody- This was definitely there before. Troubled production, but looks good for a $100m+ total if everything aligns right for it.

Mary Poppins 2- Low key tentpole for Disney. Makes me think there used to be a Star Wars or Marvel film here too. But, I do remember this being here for quite awhile. Think it will do well. Probably over $120m.



In summary, this has to be one of the most diverse and intriguing lineups December has ever seen in terms of studio tentpoles. Normally there's this huge one that scares everything else away, a family movie that attempts to compete, and a bunch of mid-tier flicks targeting adults.

If all goes well, I could see:

Mortal Engines $165m
Spiderman $185m
Aquaman $250m
Bumblebee $65m
Bohemian Rhapsody $135m
Mary Poppins 2 $180m

That probably isn't mindblowing like TFA $900m but don't think December has had its grosses so diluted across multiple massive movies. Just hasn't happened.

And we still have Fox and Warner Bros unnamed tentpoles to join in, and of course mid-tier flicks (maybe they might not come in with the extra competition this year) and Oscar films bound to have deep runs.

Only one or two of these will do great. Rest will just do below and it will be the lowest grossing December since SW

Don't really care about comparisons to Star Wars.

I'm not a fan, so the December domination has been a bloody bore.

So glad to see Jumanji doing well against it this year. We really need some spice for non-SW fans.

Anyway, do you know which film moved out?

That's beyond bold. Maybe insane. They would be lucky to get $100m combined.

TBH, the first four of them feel more like summer movies

Mortal Engines - It could be easily a late-summer release. But August is already packed as hell. Based on the teaser it looks like a live-action version of a Ghibli animation, which might make it a tough sell in America: $80M

Animated Spiderman - another one which could be a summer release, but it should do quite well during Christmas: $120M

Aquaman - This should be released in July. WB/DC had a reserved release date on 31st July, but they decided to go with Teen Titans. Maybe it is smart not to open it against MI6, but still... For me it's a summer movie. But because of no major competition: $300M.

Bumblebee - another typical summer movie for me. Maybe because all previous Transformers movies were releases in June/July. I hope it ends up to be as refreshing as it seems to be with the new director and approach, and that it does at least what The Last Knight did: $130M

Bohemian Rhapsody - despite the production troubles this should do quite well during Christmas: $90M

Mary Poppins 2 - the perfect Christmas movie, a musical and a sequel to a classic multiple generations know and love: +$260M.

In general, the line-up is pretty unspectacular, though..Maybe because it will be the first December since 2014 without a Star Wars movie. Or will it?

There is also a "Untitled Fox / Lightstorm Film" scheduled for Dec 21st and a "Untitled WB Event Film" for the Christmas Day. Isn't it crazy that we don't know anything about these movies one year before their release?

There are a lot of untitled and unknown movies scheduled throughout this year, which is also strange. And then the months which are already overloaded with big buget movies (March) or movies in general (August)...And there is also May with 6 wide releases currently planned...

What if Disney pushed Solo back to December. Looks pretty open.

I like the current mix because there's room for both Poppins and one other film
to really break out.

That said - yes I suspect Solo will be delayed to December.

Poppins will be big.

Yes, me too.

"Solo" could move to December 14th. I guess at Lucasfilm they would love to do it. But that would mean that 4 of 10 Disney movies which are currently set for release in 2018 would open in the last two months of the year...

If "Solo" moves to December 14th, at least one of the current releases would have to move...my guess is "Mortal Engines". I also think that WB would move "Aquaman".

The other thing is that the Memorial Day weekend would be left with no major release...and with only five wide May releases in total, as "A Star is Born" was pushed back by WB from May 18th to October 5th last week.

Aquaman would really benefit from Solo staying in May. There are no other major nerdgasm films that season.

Fair enough, but I feel as long as the quality is good, those could hit those marks with the current schedule as it is.

There isn't a black hole sweeping up the money, so seems like it could be spread about quite nicely if the movies are good.

BTW, no one has answered yet, what moved out? Something had to have moved out? As the first 4 moved in, and with studios setting up their tentpole release dates years in advance, I'm sure they couldn't have left those 2 weekends open.



Was there a SW film here originally? But, I feel Solo wouldn't be something to be afraid of, so it could work.



I'm pretty sure Aquaman, Spiderman and Bumblebee were all originally positioned for the summer but moved.

Since 2005s Narnia/Kong/Potter triumvirate, I've always felt there are movies that lend themselves as better holiday movies than summer movies and should release in the season if possible.

Mortal Engines feels like an August release yes, but could really work in the holidays.

Aquaman, especially if it has the feel of the fishing village scene in Justice League, is probably one of the most fitting superhero winter movies. Dr. Strange was a good fit last year too. Something like Ant Man, Deadpool or Black Panther would not be good fits. This has the whole fantasy feel going for it, which is a natural lend for the winter season.

Spiderman is a good summer flick, but I feel the new animation gives it a different feel altogether that could experiment with the winter season.

Bumblebee really isn't a winter flick, but given how scaled back Transformers has become in gross, it could survive.

Solo when untitled was scheduled very first for December. Aquaman, Spiderman, Bumblebee and Mortal Engines all moved from summer but these moves happened way early which is quite natural for this early in release schedule.

Why did Disney move Solo to summer?

I didn't think Solo was ever scheduled for December. Thought it was always summer. TLJ was summer and moved to December, though.

Mortal Engines 120m
Spiderman 80m
Aquaman 150m
Bumblebee 100m
Bohemian Rhapsody 55m
Mary Poppins 2 175m

Going to be shitty holiday box office season. No film will top 200m

My guess:
To space out it’s tent poles and start the transition back to the traditional Star Wars month (May).

Remember when Avatar was slated for Dec 2018. :-P

Yes I believe Avatar was the reason. Though now that Algren mentioned TLJ I think that moved back and not Solo.

Releasing TLJ in December has worked well for Disney. SW movies in December has become an annual event.

As for December 2018:

Mary Poppins is the favorite to win the month. Possible $300m+ grosser.

Aquaman should do at least $150m.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has the potential to do $150m or higher. Its comic-book-like approach might help.

Bumblebee is a spin-off of a fading franchise. $100m+ would be a good total for it considering.

Mortal Engines is an unknown. It could be a surprise hit. I would hold off my prediction until I know more about the plot.

Bohemian Rhapsody could do anywhere between $50m and $150m. No idea until I see more promos.

Yeah I don't think Solo will move now but it's even more surprising given the changes it will have now. Also feels too early for another SW movie but it will be interesting to see how it fares. I see a big dip from RO again but then it helps Episode IX a bit.

LOL

I don't know it could be HUGE. With Han Solo not moving there has to be that one BIG breakout like Jumanji this year and with no Star Wards next year there's even more room for it. Aquaman, Bumblebee, Mortal Engines, Bohemian Rhapsody and The Animated Spider-Man movie should all do well enough, but none of them scream big breakout, although we've only got trailers for two of those films so far. Marry Poppins is still pretty iconic and eventhough we haven't got any footage yet I wouldn't be surprised if it did $200M-$300M+. Probably even more if it gets any kind of Oscar buzz.

Any talk of Oscar buzz or predictions of $200m just make me laugh so much. I honestly cannot see why everyone thinks it will be huge. Is it purely because Mary Poppins is high on the adjusted all-time list? Because I just do not see this being the same. I mean, it may do $120m if it's good, but for me that's the high end. But I am also aware enough to see that this type of film just isn't in my prediction wheelhouse at all. I am usually very, very off with predictions for films like Beauty and the Beast and other Disney live-action films, so I will keep laughing at these huge predictions because I think they are insane, but quietly knowing that I'll most likely be wrong come Christmas 2018.

Don't underestimate the nostalgia for Disney classics.

Disney is the only studio to not have won (feature length) Best Picture. Granted Mary Poppoins won the most Oscars of any of their films - Actress, Editing, Original Score, Original Song & Visual Effects.

So yes it is a beloved film and I agree that unless they botch it it is the December 2018 Film. Look at Beauty and the Beast’s massive over performance. It could fall halfway between that and Cinderella and still be the #1 movie of December.