http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star ... 202397848/



UPDATE: $33m OD estimate (someone else feel free to make a thread for all the Friday numbers)

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star ... 202397848/

Man, the Memorial Day slot is toxic.

I'm in a 7pm showing and with 30 minutes to go it's not half full.

I thought the previews were breaking records. This is bad sub-$100m opening weekend almost a lock if that number holds. TFA opened to $119m OD I think that is the target for 4-day or lower.

For reference - Rogue One had $29 million in previews to a $150 million weekend.

That gives $80m at the high end of the previews

$70m at the low end

YIKES!!!!

Absurdly low. Can’t see it getting much more than $40m opening day with that.

Think $40m is a slightly higher though with subdues previews it might get a better Friday.

I see Solo doing $35m-$37m for "true" Friday i.e. 45% increase from previews like RO. Both TLJ and TFA had lesser increase so it could still go below $35m mark.

Still early though.

Even though it does have the SW, there really is no urgency to see a Solo prequel.

And to think they have just announced the Boba Fett movie lol

Oh I'm loving this!

Fucking TV stars trying to be movie stars. Alden Ehrenhijhgis, notDanny Glover, and fucking Emilia 'franchise killer' Clarke.

My original point circa 2014-mid 2015 that Star Wars isn't an overly big deal to millennials continues to be proven correct. Nobody gives a shit about Han Solo.

The big, fat problem for Disney (aside from all the money they're making, I am merely referring to compared to expectations) is the original trilogy does not hold up well today yet they're copying them. bad

I wonder how TFA and TLJ made $900m+ and $600m+ at BO without any support from millennials.

Once again on the eve of a major release, the studio announces another installment in the franchise to show confidence in the potential flop.

"Continues"? The last three Star Wars movies before this were the three biggest movies of their respective years.

Boba Fett movie LOL that's going to flop HARD. Though I like that Mangold is directing that.

The MD slot has little to do with this failure. Early OD's around the world suggest that the movie will have trouble reaching 250M OS.

Maybe I'm in denial, but I still think there's a chance this has an excellent multiplier. It did not open well at my theater, but presales are stronger for the weekend than Thursday night. Most of the people who saw it tonight really enjoyed it (I know because I was asking as people left).

Most of the people that saw it on Thursday night are fans so YES they liked it. I don't think there is enough appeal and a soft opening means even the fans are not rushing out for this which could help it have slightly better IM but don't think it will turn the tide and do gangbusters numbers from this.

I see Solo having better than average walk-ups this weekend. Still a troublesome number if accurate.

These previews pretty much guarantee that it won't break MD record set by Pirates 11 years back, that's just sad for an SW movie.

That’s not sad, Pirates 3 is amazing.

Typo I meant bad for an SW movie specially coming off three year end winners.

Of course it's big. However, domestically, Episode 2 was OBVIOUSLY less popular than Spider-man. Episode 3 was less popular than Spider-man & Pirates, while Batman in 2008 and Transformers in 2009 were clearly ahead of Sith's level as well. Globaly, they were well behind Potter and Rings. It doesn't surprise me that the lower tier films are falling to merely "average" blockbuster levels. I also firmly believe that Episode 9 will not challenge any records without Luke featured heavily.

Millennials do not give a fuck about Han Solo (especially without Harrison Ford) just like they did not give a fuck about Indiana Jones 10 years ago. They don't give a fuck about Boba Fett.

Part of this is why, I assume, Rian Johnson tried so hard (and mostly succeeded) in focusing on making Rey and Ren interesting in TLJ.

Sadly, the OT holds up horribly today outside of the big picture story structure. The acting and character development are horrible. Mirroring those levels of development will feel forced and inauthentic to modern audiences which is basically what happened. Nobody buys Poe as the wild leader pilot tased off 2 sentences. Nobody buys Finn and Rey as BFF's after 1 day together. Nobody buys Rey as seeing Han as her Father after a 2 hour flight to visit Lupita. That stuff flew with the simple bumpkin Spielbergian baby boomers but not with the deep, meaning-seeking Nolan/Cameronized millennial audiences. Hence why there does not feel like there is much palpable excitement to see their story progress. That and many feel that brining back the original trilogy was a cheap trick for a buck. Fisher has a total of like 20 lines across 2 films while Ford and Hamill came and went too soon. That we never got a scene of thew 3 together again is borderline criminal and a clear example of uncreative minds somehow overthinking it.

That and people are pissed that all the good from the end of Return of the Jedi was proven for naught with TFA which is just lame and ruins many people childhoods. Solo went back to who he was before, Leia went back to who she was before, Luke went back to who he was before, the empire rose again and kicked the "resistance" ass. Childhood DESTROYED

Hopefully WB doesn't make the same mistake when they bring back Harry Potter.

And Memorial Day is not a good time any more, same as the weekend before thanksgiving. Millennials are all about travel rather than objects. Memorial Day aint moving going day like it used to be.

This isn't that shocking.

Look at Spider-man Homecoming, Thor Ragnarok, Guardians 2. Solo can do anywhere between 120-130 easily enough. Solo is probably in that line of urgency. It's not really SW urgent is all.

That preview number is what is shocking to me. I would have thought the rogue one crowd would have shown up. After watching it I’m still thinking about it but idk. This number and it’s overall number looks to be worrisome.