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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Early Friday Estimates
Per Deadline: Quote: A Quiet Place - 10 Million Friday/33 Million weekend Rampage - 10 Million Friday/27-28 Million weekend Truth or Dare - 7.5 Million Friday/17.7-18 Million weekend Ready Player One - 10.75 Million weekend Blockers - 2.5 Million Friday/9.5 Million weekend A 54% drop for Blockers would be insane. I think these will be pretty different by the end of the night/weekend. Obviously A Quiet Place and Truth or Dare will have a Friday The 13th effect. If Rampage does 10 Million Friday and A Quiet Place does as well I see Rampage winning out. It will have family appeal.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:14 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
It's early, but I am rooting for AQP to top Rampage. A sub $30M opening for Rampage would be awful though no matter how you try to spin it. Truth or Dare is definitely getting a nice Friday the 13th boost before it falls off a cliff.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:20 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Wow, Truth or Dare is doing this well in matinees?
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:31 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Very hard to believe that Rampage will come in that low. On the other hand I do wonder if it is just too similar to Jumanji, Jurassic, and Kong.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:50 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20346 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
A Quiet Place would drop over 30% if that’s a real number.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:28 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
zwackerm wrote: A Quiet Place would drop over 30% if that’s a real number. You act like that's bad and unexpected. That would be a fantastic hold.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:47 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Poor holds for Ready Player One and Blockers if estimates hold. Could be due to the Friday the 13th effect.
Rampage is getting stampeded by A Quiet Place, which is enjoying a lot of media hype and good WOM. Late release date change is seldom a good thing.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:29 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
If the $1.8m weekend estimate holds for Sgt. Stubby, it will be among the worst animated openings in 1,000+ theaters. A shame since the reviews are solid. Perhaps Isle of Dogs is stealing audience.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:31 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Both THR and Variety have pretty much confirmed Deadline's numbers. THR has Rampage even lower at $9.5M which would be beyond awful. They have AQP well over $30M though.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:09 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Rampage was never really going to break out above $40m really - for being a game adaptation AND also a creature/destruction feature that looked a hybrid of too many films we'd seen before.
But it could have also made more money with a better release date. The breakout of AQP, the sudden move forward of Avengers late in the game and the release of Pacifc Rim a month earlier (giant robots) all conspired against it. Plus it was far too close to Jumanji's breakout success for there to be any major yearning for a dose of The Rock.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:56 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
MadGez wrote: Rampage was never really going to break out above $40m really Is that so? Then why this... MadGez wrote: I think it will be quite the hit and start a new franchise. $150m+. viewtopic.php?f=12&t=83559Come on, Gez. Don't be "that guy" that knows everything after-the-fact.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:04 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Algren wrote: MadGez wrote: Rampage was never really going to break out above $40m really Is that so? Then why this... MadGez wrote: I think it will be quite the hit and start a new franchise. $150m+. viewtopic.php?f=12&t=83559Come on, Gez. Don't be "that guy" that knows everything after-the-fact. You’re the same way asshat
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:25 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Rolling Thunder wrote: If the $1.8m weekend estimate holds for Sgt. Stubby, it will be among the worst animated openings in 1,000+ theaters. A shame since the reviews are solid. Perhaps Isle of Dogs is stealing audience. Bummer. Was hoping it could do 3 Million.
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:47 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
I can understand why RPO was hit but that Blockers drop is awful of true. If both AQP and Rampage do close to $10m then I see the later winning because of family effect. One is enjoying Friday 13th boost and the other previews so that negates things I guess.
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:03 am |
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Jmart
Superman: The Movie
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21152 Location: Massachusetts
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Rolling Thunder wrote: If the $1.8m weekend estimate holds for Sgt. Stubby, it will be among the worst animated openings in 1,000+ theaters. A shame since the reviews are solid. Perhaps Isle of Dogs is stealing audience. I don’t think anyone knows it exists. — As for the numbers themselves, I can’t say I’m too surprised by the muted opening for Rampage. For some reason, the theater I was covering last night had five showings between 6:30 and 10:00 with two of those showtimes ten minutes apart which is usually something only reserved for something like Star Wars. I don’t know if they expected overflow, but it didn’t happen. No showtime had more than 30 people and the last one I covered had zero. Meanwhile, Truth or Dare only had four showtimes throughout the entire day and the evening showtime I covered was completely sold out. ToD will probably drop like a rock from here on out though.
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:22 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21641 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Rampage went up 2 million to 11.5 million. I think it still is looking good for 35-40 million. Truth or Dare went up too. But F13 will mean it still most likely misses 20 million. Already a massive hit with it's 3.5 million budget.
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:15 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Rampage still did $9m on Friday without previews. I don't see it ending close to $40m but it should do $32m-$34m OW. The big question is how AQP will hold after Friday 13th boost, the good WoM can only help in here so I think it is set for $33m-$35m. I am really hoping for AQP winning the weekend again, regardless of Rampage disappointing this is looking to be a GREAT weekend again.
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:42 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
I like close finish weekends between films. I feel like most weekends now are set based on the Thursday preview numbers. Remember the time when people still enjoyed Sunday weekend estimates?
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:01 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
How much of RPO's drop can be attributed to losing IMAX and PLF to Rampage?
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:11 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
I think it's the direct competition that impacted RPO more but the loss of plf screens is what got it from 40%-45% drop to 50+% drop
I'm still not sure why Blockers dropped that much.
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:40 pm |
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pepe pippen
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:25 am Posts: 768
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Saturday(DH):
Rampage-$13.8M AQP-$13.5M
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:14 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
That's expected. Rampage is more of a Saturday matinee flick whereas A Quiet Place is an evening movie.
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:22 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
So Rampage seems to have won the weekend barely based on the previews. Damn!!!
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:09 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Algren wrote: MadGez wrote: Rampage was never really going to break out above $40m really Is that so? Then why this... MadGez wrote: I think it will be quite the hit and start a new franchise. $150m+. http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 12&t=83559Come on, Gez. Don't be "that guy" that knows everything after-the-fact. I know everything regardless! Yeah I did realise I had thought it was good for $150m but I was wrong.
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:41 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Early Friday Estimates
Regardless of how it was marketed, Rampage is still a video game movie (and on the video game chart at BOM), so $35m is outstanding for it.
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:23 am |
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