Incredibles won't increase that much.

It doesn't even look very good.

JP won't fall that much.

Deadpool is definitely dropping.

Solo will also be the lowest yet for the new SW.

JP2 is falling for sure. It won't do much more than $450m and while its not a "big" drop in percentage (about 30% drop) its still a big drop in total.

I thought the same for Finding Dory, but it did anyway. I’m

FD actually decreased from adjusted Nemo numbers by the same drop Incredibles 2 will reach $350m and that's won't be enough to be No. 2 movie of summer.

I could see that being enough. But I think it will increase more than Dory percentage wise.

JW 2 isn't going to drop that big. $400m is the lowest it will do with 40% drop from the original. I think it will do $450m and that is too big of a jump for Incredibles 2.

Interest is low. Don’t think it will be big just cuz the last one was.

At this point I don't think we can gauge interest in Incredibles 2 as well because of IW. There is clear historical data for both movies with Dory and TLW. As per YouTube views both are pretty much even with a slight edge to JW as of now (avg 1.85m views per day) Vs ID2 (avg 1.68m views per day).

Not many people saw JW becoming an all tone grosser even a week before it's release.ID2 is not in the same league here. It feels like people want ID2 to be huge which is clouding their judgement.

I think the fact that this year has been devoid of any major animated is going to help Incredibles big time.

I agree on that which is also one of the reasons I see Incredibles doing more than the original's adjusted numbers but to expect a $450m+ total might be asking too much. Plus you have to remember while superhero concept will help the movie, it will be the 4th BIG superhero movie of the year so it won't be anything special (or new). Aside from DP2 most of the big superhero blockbusters coming in from May plus Solo heavily skew families so its not an under-served demo though I can see the very-young families coming out big time for ID2.

I think the fact that it is superhero related does hurt it a bit yes. Still it can be No.2 if it can hit $420m or so and JW2 has the sharp drop we are expecting. It should be close.

I also hate the fact that TI2 and JW2 are opening one week apart. There certainly is room on the schedule to spread them out.

TI2 much better acronym than my ID2

ID2 was when the aliens arrived on July 2nd instead of July 4th?

The best precedents for TI2 are Dory & TS3.

Which both sold less tickets than the former despite an increase in $ amount.

Funny how TI2 being a superhero movie hurts it more than it would've a couple years ago.

I suppose the only real wild card here is Solo. Will SW fans really go the whole hog for every single sub-par POS that they churn out?

Online that fanbase is still cumming to the mention of anything Star Wars, but are people really excited outside of that?

Its pretty much given that Solo won't be answer of this question. Even with a TFA to TLJ drop from RO, Solo will do $352m and that's not going to be enough for #2 this summer. At this point I think that is the best case scenario for Solo and it can only go down from there.

Straight shoot out between Incredibles and JWFK.

My money is still on The Incredibles.

Pent up demand for a major animated film for families will be sky high when it is released.

I don't understand why being an animated movie gives it the advantage to increase THAT much over the original. I understand that very young families will have this as the only option but if we are talking about families in general they can easily take their kids to BP, IW as the other family options, plus JWFK is another option coming in soon. Pixar movies also tend to attract a LOT older given their AMAZING legs and those audience will definitely not be under-served.

PG rating and HUGE theater count didn't really help Show Dogs and while this is definitely not the case for TI2, its gives a perception that perhaps the family audience isn't as starved as we think they are specially these days with constant fluff of MCU superhero movies.

Parents ain't going to take young children to see scary dinosaurs or scary black men. Incredibles is the happy, jolly, colourful, fun movie for all the fam. It has an edge for an under-served market.

Very young (i.e. toddlers to 6 years) also know about dinosaurs but for the argument sake yes they won't take their kids but the young families (7+ aged kids) are definitely in contention for dinosaurs and scary(?) black men.

So you agree that there is a market out there that will see Incredibles but won't see Jurassic? Ok, so there's nothing more to talk about.

Incredibles also has girls over 6. Can't imagine many of them would care for dinosaurs, but would see Incredibles.

I never mentioned that there isn't a market for it. All I said was that alone cannot be reason for it to make such HUGE increase from the original adjusted.

Well, tracking already has it doubling the original.

Incredibles 2

And tracking can sometimes be wrong.