$17.5m SW8
$7.0m-7.5m Jumanji
$3.0m-3.7m Greatest Showman

http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-d ... 202230784/

Of note there is that one day is difference between 17% and 38% of schools being out.

That would be solid for a Jumanji. Will probably manage 150m total.
Greatest Showman should do about 80m total.

Really good for Jumanji. Could actually do 60 Million over the 6-Day.

Would also be solid for The Greatest Showman. Unless it's front-loaded, which I don't think it will be as it's an original musical. Might do around 25 Million for the 6-Day.

Brilliant for Jumanji. Decent for TGS.

TLJ is mostly heading towards a multiplier of RO which would still be huge in total but it could have been so much better.

RO multiplier gets it to $754m... isn't that more or less where expectations were as of a week ago?

I think so

Oof

Wondering what Jumanji's weekend will look like. Will it follow the 2006 patterns? Could hold well today with many schools starting Winter Break.

Depends on who you talk to. Some said it was locked for 750+ and that is not the case at all right now. It needs to run 29% ahead of Rogue One's daily numbers the rest of the way to reach $700m. For $750m, it needs to run about 44% of Rogue One's daily numbers the rest of the way. On Wednesday it was 13% ahead of Rogue One.

Most people also didn't think that its OW will be as big as $220m I think people were lurking between $205m-$215m even $5m adds a lot to the overall multiplier.

Looking at 2006, the 3-day weekend gross was around 3.5 to 4 times higher than the Wednesday gross for wide theater count holdover movies in release 15 days or less. Pursuit of Happyness appears to be an outlier with a 5.27 multiplier on the weekend compared to Wednesday.

$16.9m Wednesday x 5.27 (Pursuit of Happyness) = $89m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.99 (Eragon) = $68m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.87 (The Holiday) = $65.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.76 (Blood Diamond) = $63.5m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.75 (Charlotte's Web) = $63.4m
$16.9m Wednesday x 3.45 (Apocalypto) = $58m

Honestly I think it would be doing great if it can get over $70m for the weekend.

Wouldn't $70m be kinda bad for it? I mean RO opened to $155m and still managed a 2nd weekend of $64m and both will have Christmas eve in these weekends. $70m would be less than 50% of TFA's 2nd weekend and their OW's weren't that far off.

Rogue One did have Christmas Day boost on Sunday though, so the Eve/Day situation kind of canceled out for Rogue One. Last Jedi is just getting hammered by Christmas Eve on Sunday and then the Christmas boost shows up Monday.

But yes, $70m is not great. Deadline predicted $88m on Monday. I think that's on the extreme high end. Pursuit of Happyness was a big outlier in 2006. It's possible the same will be true for Last Jedi, but it's entirely possible it has daily percentages more similar to Eragon...which would put it under $70m for the 3-day.

Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi - $16,900,000 -17%
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $7,200,000
The Greatest Showman - $2,500,000
The Disaster Artist - $431,639 -21%
Daddy’s Home 2 - $337,933 -45%
Lady Bird - $310,964 -22%
Darkest Hour - $132,410 -3%


https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/12/20

So TLJ is looking at a second weekend drop close to 70% ? I have to say I knew the scheduling was already pretty messed up with Christmas falling on a Monday this year, but this is still pretty surprising. This movie is going to have an interesting run to say the least.

I just hope Disney doesn't pull a Warner Bros and overreacts to this and tries to over engineer the final episode just when Star Wars is good again

I mean, this is still going to be the third biggest movie of all time in America, and barring an overseas collapse it'll enter the all time top 10 worldwide. I think Disney can look at that gross and say "good enough."

To be honest, this has been a disastrous bunch of pre-Christmas dailies so far. The comparison with Rogue One's should also consider the comparison between Coco's and Moana's, just for example.

The Wednesday-to-Friday bump better be pretty strong, or it's going to be a disaster for most movies. Happy Feet dropped 38% on the 22/24 weekend, with NatM opening on Friday and almost 800 theaters lost. If Coco follows its daily patter from here on, it will drop 50% next weekend. Same for other movies.

Wow, TLJ has dropped every single day since its release.

Well TLJ should see it's first increase today

Should?

It seems too early to say one way or another if the film is disappointing in regards to its legs. The week/weekend before Christmas consists of many people shopping out and about, and traveling, so they're probably not necessarily in a rush to see a movie (post-OW) until the week of/after Christmas. And the school argument is valid to me since public schools dismiss for Christmas Break today (12/22) in my surrounding area.

More than perhaps any other time of the year, it likely matters greatly on whether or not opening just a couple days earlier in December will have a negative effect on daily returns. We'll probably have to wait until next Tuesday before being able to properly determine anything.