Crucify me, but I don't think that the Star Wars franchise is going to see growth from Episode VII, even if it is an amazing movie. General audience interest will peak with the first of the new installments just like the prequel trilogy. As I see Episode VII doing 450 million domestic, and AOTC fell 29% from TPM, I could see VIII going as low as 320 million. I think it won't be that bad, and will still be good for 375 million.

GOTG, on the other hand, was a WOM monster. Those are the best legs for a superhero film ever besides Spider-Man, better than the Avengers, better than The Dark Knight. That gives reason to believe the OW for the sequel could be much bigger, maybe 140-150 million with that summer kickoff date.

I know it has been said in the past, and it has come back to bite Iron Man, Star Trek, The Avengers and many others in the bottom, but a good comparison for GOTG may be (sigh) Pirates of the Caribbean. When I watched it, I thought "just like Pirates, but in space.

In order to get a jump like Dead Man's Chest, the marketing will need to show something different from the original, and be more of Cap 2 than AOU quality. But I have a real feeling that Guardians 2 will finally give Marvel their breakout sequel and franchise, and will gross over 400 million domestically, out grossing Star Wars Episode VIII.

I don't expect any of you to join, but you can come over to the Dark Side if you want. We got cookies.

This club absolutely requires Episode 7 be TERRIBLE. Matrix Reloaded like unpopular.

OUT

Why make a thread like this before episode 7 opens?

Because I think this will happen regardless of Episode 7's reception, based on the history of the Star Wars franchise having the first installment be the peak of the trilogy.

It's not impossible, obviously.

There's good enough claim that Episode VIII will drop off from Episode VII, but without knowing how much is needed to drop off, a club like this is just a conjecture right now.

Girl, stop.

I like the boldness but everybody knows the club is moot until we get a feel for for episode 7's reception.

Episode VIII will make less than Episode VII, regardless of how good The Force Awakens is.

That said, this isn't happening. Not by a long shot.

See, I don't know if I am sold on that.

I think some around here totally overestimate the power of the force with modern audiences. I think it is going to take at least one real grand slam movie to make the franchise the true top dog it used to be. Now it's just another huge fish in a crowd pond. If Episode 7 is good, the real money lies with Episode 8. There is no debate about that in my view.

Everybody here thinks there is this 'novelty' factor w Episode 7 when, like, there isn't really. Kind of, in the sense that this one looks like a real movie and not some cgi cartoon ala episode 2 and 3. But that's kind of it.

Episode 7 is not anything more fresh than The Hobbitt was 2 1/2 years ago.

@ this club

Guadians 2 would have to make well above 400+... When was the last time we've seen a sequel jump up by a great amount? The only time I could think of when it comes to $300 grossers is like Dead Man's Chest.

Shrek 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight.

Of course, Shrek, Pirates of the Caribbean, and Batman Begins all had better legs than Guardians of the Galaxy.

The collective dumbness from all of your posts regarding Age of Ultron over the past 10 days have supplied the forum with enough dumbness to last 4 or 5 years. Just saying 'yall dumb'.

The cookies swayed me. In.

It likely dropped sub 60, so I fail to see how we're dumb.

Marvel films have peaked. GOTG2 will probably gross less than the 1st one.

Exactly! They peaked at 623 million!

I see no reason why GOTG can't match IM3 with the summer kickoff date.

I also think they have peaked, but then I could see that in 2012. But is it so easy to say they have peaked? By "peaked" I assume you are not talking about an absolute peak since we are in a thread where that doesn't apply anyway. I mean, the last Captain America and Iron Man movies were the highest grossing in their franchises, and Ultron just opened to almost $200m in 3 days. I think they are and still will be very popular for the coming years.

Simply I dont see the entire avengers fan base transitioning over to GOTG movies. Tony Stark/RDJ as a character is way more popular than any GOTG character. So I dont see this increasing to IM3 levels. Most probably it will decrease and go below 300m.

The doom and gloom talk regarding Marvel now is very premature.

It should be more apparent now than ever that The Avengers was a major, novelty, event. It grossed over $600 million. So, just because the sequel, no longer a novelty that's capable of bringing in a wider audience, isn't matching or exceeding the first film doesn't mean the future of Marvel films will be on the decline. It's only been trailing 1 film so far.

The upcoming sequels to Captain America, Thor, and Guardians are all likely to outgross their predecessors. It'll also be quite the accomplishment if Captain America and Thor manage to do it, too, given the threequel curse at the box-office.

thor wont be outgrossing thor 2, just an fyi

I actually thought the marketing for first GOTG was really inspired and don't see the sequel matching that level of good marketing. Even if it does increase I see a normal sequel increase to $370m-$380m maybe even $400m.

I do believe Star Wars movies will start declining because Disney is going to dilute the brand name. But if SW7 is great I think the decrease will not be big or there might make same amount. Plus comparing the drop of AOTC to TPM is pointless because I don't think TPM really matched the hype.

Don't forget there is also the stand alone film before Episode 8 too. A mere five months before it. They will very have an effect on it too. Though this really is more about Guardians 2.

I could see it have a IM2 type increase to 125 million opening, but 400 seems like a bit of a stretch right now. Legs definitely won't be as good as the first.