These movies really seem to flounder without a clear hook. “Dinosaur amusement park” = win.

“People stupidly wandering around a gloomy island they already know is dangerous because of ______” (lost child, to save dinosaurs from a volcano, whatever it was in The Lost World) isn’t really appealing.

Yeah this is going to fall big from JW, although it should still be good $400M+, because I don't believe the novelty of seeing dinos eat people has quite worn of yet. That trailer was a mess though and focusing so heavily on the disaster porn sequences was a bad decision IMO. Of course, the GA will probably still eat it up and as long as reviews aren't awful it'll be fine.

160/420

Based on the trailer I'm very skeptical about both +$150m OW and +$400m total now. I'm going with 140/390.

That could still make it good enough for the top 3 next year, I don't just see Solo or Incredibles 2 easily going over 400 either. Besides Infinity War I expect the rest of summer tickets going to be very spread out over multiple films.

This still seems far from feasible, the Jurassic brand name is a bit too large for me to go with that. Then again who would have thought Justice League would miss $250m

Overseas gross will be stupid big.

Not sure about domestic. CGI disaster porn was not expected.

Eh I don't think its guaranteed to do $1b in OS markets. The last one barely reached it, its going to fall out in a lot of OS markets as well specially with World Cup affecting some of its release dates.

That's why it's opening two weeks ahead of domestic in many international markets...

Enjoyed JW1, but this one looks really bad. Probably going to skip it in theaters along with many other people. Would not surprise me if it goes under $400m domestic.

Really???? or just saying that to make a point that it doesn't look great so far?

The premise is pretty terrible. Save the dinosaurs...wtf. I think I'd rather save some money and avoid this movie in theaters.

Interesting. How many times per year do you normally attend the cinema? If you're a 3-4 times a year person then I get your POV, but if you're a weekly moviegoer, seems a bit weird to not just plump for some summer dino fun.

Yeah, I don't go very often.

After seeing the trailer....

150/400

Same here, seems like a skip for me unless sentiments change. I actually had the volume muted when the trailer came on and for a minute I actually thought they were advertising the first JW Blu-ray or something. It looked so much like the original and turning the volume back up didn't help.

I don't even think 400 is a safe bet, even if it gets 160 opening. It feels just completely non event. It looks horrible.

I think the legs will be fine but the opening will be lower specially if it doesn't look good and there are MUCH better options before it.

This will do sub 400. It will do less than 2/3 the admissions of JW.

Never have I hoped your were more correct! #stuffphehe

I think this will surprise many like the last one and do $500m because of the huge family appeal even though I wish it didn't.

It wouldn't surprise me honestly. As much as we have been trashing the trailer it could play a lot better with general audiences. Jurassic Park should still be a popular choice among family friendly audiences even though it's facing quite a bit of competition in that segment going up against The Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Hotel Transylvania 3.

Mindful that most of you expected JW to open in the $110-125m range up until opening day. Sparrow is correct in that the family appeal here is simply staggering in size. Rexy roaring with the mountain exploding = $$$$$. Trailer views have also been huge.

Cannot imagine a sub $150m opening weekend.

Personally, I think the idea sounds ridiculous. However, I do take some comfort in Trevorrow saying that all of the footage is from there first 57 minutes of the film & the footage only establishes the superficial reason for evacuation the Dino's. AKA there will be a lot more to the plot than just "escape from volcano Dino island".

Wouldn't rule out seeing it until reviews come out.

Listen LW took the OW record and still dropped massively, if it follows suit its at 418 million.

This is a film that has a few facts this time.

JW was not as good as Jurassic Park
The first trailer is underwhelming.
The 10+ year wait time is not there. The series died out before Spiderman even came about.
Chris Pratt hot right after Guardians (Now we had Passengers, The cowboy movie, and the first film, and even G2 not quite living up, his wow factor is gone)
JW2 has tougher competition being in between Deadpool 2 and Ant Man and the Wasp.

I think 380-420 is a very reasonable range But it would need 220+ opening to hit 500 and it's not getting that.

God what a depressing day it is when I am downplaying a 400 million film.

At least I have Zwackwerm's manifesto to cheer me up.

There's no doubt in my mind the total drops barring outstanding word of mouth, which isn't that impossible given that the director is 3/3 with films in the 80s our higher on RT. But the idea of this opening at $140m is silly. That said, the biggest problem I see - by far - is opening the weekend after incredibles 2. That will still being doing $50m+ for the weekend and the family appeal is massive. That limits it significantly.

Nothing is impossible after what we just saw with Justice League.

Exactly.