1 THE GRUDGE $40,000,000 NEW $40,000,000
2 SHARK TALE $14,300,000 -35% $136,973,000
3 SHALL WE DANCE? $8,614,000 -27% $24,442,000
4 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS $6,962,000 -43% $47,284,000
5 TEAM AMERICA: WORLD POLICE $6,600,000 -45% $22,327,000
6 LADDER 49 $5,416,000 -36% $61,457,000
7 SURVIVING CHRISTMAS $4,500,000 NEW $4,500,000
8 TAXI $4,250,000 -46% $29,856,000
9 THE FORGOTTEN $3,400,000 -43% $62,000,000
10 I HEART HUCKABEES $3,000,000 +228% $5,905,000

Not bad. But, damn. Taxi shoulda bombed.

Very good drop for all movies so far, especially Shall We Dance?.

Slightly dissapointed SHALL WE DANCE didn't rise. Still, hot drop

Friday Night Lights is really having a bad multiplier each weekend. A 2.73 multiplier this weekend...Seems like the title goes along with this movie's box-office. People really do go out on Friday night to see it.

And I am disappointed that Shall We Dance? didn't drop less than 20%...

People expected Shall We Dance? to drop less than 20% because it expanded? I think it's drop is awesome. It should end with about $45 million, which is awesome for a movie that opened to $11 million.

1. The Grudge $40,000,000 NEW $40,000,000
2. Shark Tale $14,300,000 -35% $136,973,000
3. Shall We Dance $8,614,000 -26.9% $24,442,000
4. Friday Night Lights $6,962,000 -43% $47,284,000
5. Team America: World Police $6,600,000 -45.5% $22,327,000
6. Ladder 49 $5,416,000 -36.3% $61,457,000
7. Surviving Christmas $4,500,000 NEW $4,500,000
8. Taxi $4,250,000 -46.1% $29,856,000
9. The Forgotten $3,400,000 -43.4% $62,000,000
10. I Heart Huckabees $3,000,000 227.9% $5,905,000

The grudge is estimated at 40mill.

$40,000,000....i'm sensing a bit of over prediction here! I rekon it will drop a little on actuals. Maybe to $38.5M

I don't think it's overpredicted. A 38.6% drop on Sunday seems reasonable.

WOW! I never thought Grudge would make that much.

It's budget is only 10 million... it was a success on day 1.

HUGE for The Grudge, but it is overestimated, as usual. I see it ending up with like $39 million...

Boo, I want the Grudge to make 40 and do 100. It was definately a pimp movie. I liked it. GREAT NUMBERS though!

Everythign else is really performing well! Minus BEn Affleck and you have nic stuff.

The Grudge has done superbly, nobody should be dissapointed with this number, im exstatic!!!!!!

Hopefully Saw can follow in its foot-steps, not in numbers, but in comparison, by PTA, legs etc

Ben affleck must be the biggest B.O poisen in hollywood.

Yeah for The Grudge!
Great numbers

I can see The Grudge actually increasing when the actuals come out. Unlikely, I know, but I really want it to get over 40 million.

Great opening weekend for The Grudge, how will its legs hold up? Anyone think it will be the highest opening weekend not to hit $100 million? Just from its weekend internal multiplier, its legs do not seem to be too bad.

There are just too many bad or embarrassing movies out. Which I tried to ask about in a different thread but it was closed as torrino said, there was nothing to discuss.

Too bad as the lead actor and the movie is the most important thing in bringing people into the theaters.

Some examples.

Ben Affleck in Surviving Xmas.
JLO in Shall we Dance.
Hillary Duff in Raise your Voice.
The puppet movie. Team America.
Queen L in Taxi

Team America is supposed to be HILARIOUS... not bad/embarassing

I called the 40 mil for the Grudge

Huckabees might have been a lil overhyped...the pta is not really that great for a movie that had been doing so well in limited...

Damn you surviving xmas...why dreamworks why didnt you release this in Dec ???

My Weekend Analysis:


1. The Grudge:

This has definitely surprised everyone. Everyone knew this is going to do well, but the predictions all ranged from $20 million to $30 million. It just shows us that the Asian horror movies can top everything Hollywood provides at the moment, in terms of horror. Neither sub-par reviews, nor some bad WoM could prevent this movie from grabbing an estimated $40 million in its first weekend. The weekend multiplier pretty much matches The Forgotten's and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre's internal weekend multipliers which indicates that the movie might not be all that frontloaded as some have assumed. However, I personally think that the studio overestimated it just to get it the $40 million number. In the end, I see it ending up with like $39 million over the weekend. That will make its multiplier seem not too great, especially considering that it is a PG 13-rated movie, in contrast to the better-recieved The Texas Chainsaw Massacre. Still the success of this movie is undeniable. It has made more than twice as much on its opening weekend as The Ring did and it managed a much higher PTA even though it opened in more theatres. That only shows how much The Ring helped to promote the genre "Asian horror remake". It bodes very well for the Jennifer Connelly-starrer Dark Water and The Ring sequel which both are coming out next year. Halloween will help it not to drop big, but SAW will hit it hard as well, especially in its future run. I see a very big drop the weekend after Halloween. I think it will leave the theatres with around $100 million which is nothing to complain about.


2. Shark Tale:

Another decent drop in this movie's amazing run. People truly want to see all animated movies as long as they are CGI and not called Final Fantasy. This movie had a lot going against it. Bad reviews, bad reception by audiences...but none of that could hinder it from having great legs. This movie was very much helped by the fact that by the time of its release up until now, it is the only family movie around. It sure will be crushed in November the the likes of The Polar Express and The Incredibles, but by then it will have grossed a great amount of money to make it another hit for Dreamworks. I see a total gross of around 169 million.

3. Shall We Dance:

Despite all bad expectations, bad reviews and unsatisfying sneaks, this remake of a Japanese movie went on and surprised everyone by outgrossing Team America faster than anyone could have ever imagined. It is somewhat disappointing that this movie didn't fall less than 20% in its second weekend despite the expansion, though. Still, it should have a very decent run, giving Lopez the hit she needs to end up with about $48 million.

4. Friday Night Lights:

This movie is doing very well although the weekend drops are actually worse than other feel-good sports movies with good reviews would suggest. Still, this movie is a hit and looks to end up with about $65 million in its pocket.

5. Team America: World Police:

This is probably the biggest negative surprise of October. While it is not a BOMB, it sure is a disappointment. Looks like the puppets did look too weird for the audiences. However, it didn't drop more than 50% this weekend which suggest a rather leggier run, than presumed before this weekend. I see a total gross of $38 million.

6. Ladder 49:

This is the hit John Travolta needed who hasn't had one since Swordfish. Bad reviews and a rather not intriguing topic couldn't stop this movie from opening well and having very decent legs throughout its run. It has had another sub-40% drop this weekend and I don't see this trend stopping anytime soon. It will have decent legs until the end of its run for a total gross of around $74 million.

7. Surviving Christmas:

Well all knew it's not going to do well, but who knew it's going to do THAT bad? The most embarassing this about this movie's weekend gross is that it has a WORSE PTA THAN GIGLI! This is nothing short of pathetic. While his ex is doing pretty well with her new dancing movie, Shall We Dance? Ben Afflecks displays his comedian abilities (or the lack thereof) in this crapfest which shows that you shouldn't release Christmas-themed movies in October. This clunker is sure to have horrible drops and its total gross will not be higher than $10 million.

8. Taxi:

This is the third remake in this weekend's TOP 10. Pretty sad, eint it? To be honest, this movie is doing pretty well, considering its rather lame opening and the horrible reviews. The fact that Tim Story, its director is taking on Fantastic Four is rather disturbing, though. At least we all should be happy that we won't see Taci sequels in future. This movie looks to leave the theatres with around $37 million in its bag.

9. The Forgotten:

As expected, this movie was hit the hardest by The Grudge's arrival. Hiwever, this movie has displayed great legs so far, despite bad reviews and lukewarm reception. It turned out to be this September's biggest hit and the fact that next Sunday is Halloween will help it to have a pretty slim drop next wekend. I see this movie topping out at about $70 million.

10. I Heart Huckabees:

A nice weekend for this movie, but somewhat disappointing for many after the $70,000+ PTA it had in its first weekend. The fact is, though, that this movie is not very accessible and it reflects in its box-office performance. The all-star cast helps it, as well as the fact that pretty much all art-house fans want to see this movie. However, I am sure it will fail to grab the attention of borader audiences as the movie's content is way too weird and too quirky for a normal moviegoer. Nonetheless, I suspect that this movie didn't cost much and will turn into a nice investment by the studio by grossing around $17-19 million at the domestic box-office and some more overseas where it surely will find its fans too.

Nice analysis Doc... :wink: :wink: :wink:

Good analysis.

I disagree about Shark Tale. No way does it have bad WOM with the kind of drops and total it has to this point.