My extended and revised predictions:

1. War of the Worlds - $358.8 million
2. Madagascar - $255.0 million
3. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $247.0 million
4. Star Wars: Episode III - $238.5 million
5. Bewitched - $178.0 million
6. The Longest Yard - $141.0 million
7. The Island - $133.3 million
8. Batman Begins - $120.5 million
9. Stealth - $120.0 million
10. Kingdom of Heaven - $115.0 million
11. The Adventures of Shark Boy & Lava Girl in 3-D - $95.0 million
12. The Dukes of Hazzard - $94.5 million
13. The Wedding Crashers - $88.0 million
14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $77.8 million
15. Monster-In-Law - $70.0 million
16. xXx: State of the Union - $70.0 million
17. Fantastic Four - $65.0 million
18. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $65.0 million
19. Herbie: Fully Loaded - $60.0 million
20. Deuce Bigalow: European Gigalow - $55.0 million

By Opening:
1. War of the Worlds - $90.0 million
2. Star Wars: Episode III - $85.0 million
3. Madagascar - $63.0 million
4. Batman Begins - $52.0 million
5. Bewitched - $48.8 million
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $47.8 million
7. The Longest Yard - $44.0 million
8. The Island - $40.0 million
9. Kingdom of Heaven - $35.5 million
10. Stealth - $34.5 million
11. xXx: State of the Union - $32.0 million
12. The Dukes of Hazzard - $31.0 million

Why would War of the Worlds make about $15M less than Return of the King and Spider-Man 2, MG?!

The marketing for Kingdom of Heaven looks really good. I saw two spots tonight, at least one, maybe both were in front of CSI. This will attract a large older audience.

This is a tentpoll pic, so the studio is giving it a major marketing campaign. Troy might have had a huge number of ads, but they were not that effective. That's why I made the "Troy under 150m club" at Mojo. I definately think the special effects and the marketing are more effective for KOH. While Troy might have had more hype, that won't be the major difference. Hype can help a film, and enhance its potential, but alone it does not make a hit.

1. Star Wars: Episode III - $283 million (It'll probably win by default athough Madagascar and War of the Worlds have more upside imo)
2. Madagascar - $258 million
3. War of the Worlds - $247 million
4. Batman Begins - $168 million
5. The Longest Yard - $142 million (similar to most Adam Sandler comedies)
6. Fantastic Four – 133 million (should be lower than X-men)
7. The Island - $126 million
8. Bewitched - $123 million
9. The Wedding Crashers -$111 million (this summer's Dodgeball?)
10. Cinderella Man - $106 million (Seabiscuit/ Road to Perdition numbers)

Others:
xXx: State of the Union - $102 million
Stealth - $93 million (i think Jaime Foxx is miscast here)
The Dukes of Hazzard - $86 million (starsky & hutch numbers)
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $81 million(??? - prediction based on the terrible teaser)
Kingdom of Heaven - $77 million (will perform much better internationaly)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $74 million (same here)

Hmmm. i really do hope STEALTH is big this weekend.

Jessica Biel deserves ANOTHER hit

It's THE summer movie. It looks interesting and it's practically the only movie I'm going to be positively predicting this summer besides Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

So? Why does that mean it'll make 350m? The last time a Spielberg movie did over 350 was Jurassic Park with 357m. Not to mention there has never been a Cruise movie close to that.

Is it? Accoring to whom? :wink:

It won't pass $300M. I'd love to see it happen, but it won't.

Pearl Harbor was "the summer movie" of 2001. :wink: In 1998 you had Godzilla. :wink:

Actually my prediction is not based on Spielberg or Cruise. It's the premise. This will have widestream appeal. The least it can do is The Day After Tomorrow numbers, and that was humans versus nature.

Yes, but what gives War of the Worlds the edge to do double what The Day After Tomorrow grossed, considering how heavily hyped and marketed that movie was?

As DP07 explained, hype only gets you so far. It helps with name recognition mainly and release date awareness, beyond that the movie's quality and how it resonates with the public come into play. Spielberg knows how to make crowd pleasers when he really tries and the evidence here is he's in "really trying" mode.

The arguments for Worlds doing great are pretty solid, there is only one catch that kept me from staying on that bandwagon: the release date. It is hard to have a big hit that late in the summer. If it was a May release then that'd be different.

But could Worlds be huge? Most definitely it could. There's nothing irrational about predicting it to be big, it's not like this is an exact science.

WHAT'S WITH ALL THESE QUESTIONS?!

I just think it will make 350 million, OKAY?! :wink:

Defend your prediction! :wink:

There's only 4 movies I can see topping the summer:

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - unlikely, but could happen
Madagascar - it won't be that huge
Star Wars Episode III - has already lost too much widestream audience

and

War of the Worlds - This even sounds like the movie of the summer. It's got the actors to sell it, the cities being destroyed factor (makes it look "epic"), and it almost looks kinda creepy. Everyone has always had some weird fear of aliens being out there. Signs sold on the aliens. Many mainsteam audience were expected a more global outlook on the aliens in Signs, but were satisfied with the different take on it. War of the Worlds is just everything, combined into one. The only thing I think it's missing is comedic elements. Independence Day had a lot of funny stuff in it, so I hope there's some amusing things in War of the Worlds that's not forced.

I just wish we had some more shots of the FX in Worlds, it would help us make a better call on it.

I don't see how Sith makes anything less than 300 mill. All of you guys predicting that it will pull in Reloaded kind of numbers are forgetting the geek factor. Geekdom will alone push this to 250 mill. Then you have guys like me. Not on the same level as geekdom as the SW loonies, but did grow up loving the OT and can't wait to see Obi Wan and Anakin go at it..can't wait to see Darth Vader and can't wait to see the true power of the Sith. This alone should vault SW into the 300 mill range. So having said that, I think it will make about 330 mill....followed closely by War of the World.

1. War of the Worlds:450mill
2.Star Wars: Episode III:410mill
3. Madagascar:220mill
4.The Island:160mill
5.Batman Begins:128mill
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory:125mill

Bewitched:105mill
The Longest Yard:115mill


Stealth:110mill
Kingdom of Heaven:112mill

So, uh, you expect it to beat out Shrek 2 and become the third highest grossing movie of all-time?

Yeeeeeeeeeeah.

The people who can't wait for the Obi Wan v. Anakin battle won't make any difference. You saw the others in the theater. No one will just see this one. To outsiders, it will look like you had to see the first two to understand this one. It WILL NOT make 300 million, I guarantee it.

While I certainly don't guarantee that this one will make 300 mill, I do think that there is a very good chance that it will make more than 300 mill. I just think the anticipation for this one is about as high as TPM, therefore I think it has a good shot at 330 mill.

I remember the anticipation for TPM. This one seems a little low key. The buzz hasnt quite started for SW till about 4 months. TPM I remember were on magazines way before it opened like in the Times, Newsweek and Rollingstones. After the last dissappointment with AOTC, I dont think as many people will look forward to it as much as TPM

TPM was everywhere. I don't think any other movie has ever been nearly as hyped. This is nothing by comparision.

Yep, nothing can beat TPM when it comes to anticipation.

1. Star Wars: Episode III - $285
2. Madagascar - $275
3. War of the Worlds - $205
4. Batman Begins - $180
5. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $175
6. The Island- $170
7. The Longest Yard - $135
8. Bewitched - $115
9. Cinderella Man - $105
10. Stealth - $100