Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, SEP. 23 - SUN, SEP. 25
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WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Lion King 3D $22,100,000 -27% 2,330 0 $9,485 $61,646,070 2 Disney
2 Moneyball $20,600,000 -- 2,993 -- $6,883 $20,600,000 1 Sony / Columbia
3 Dolphin Tale $20,260,000 -- 3,507 -- $5,777 $20,260,000 1 Warner Bros.
4 Killer Elite $9,500,000 -- 2,986 -- $3,182 $9,500,000 1 Open Road
5 Contagion $8,565,000 -41% 3,136 -86 $2,731 $57,121,672 3 Warner Bros.
6 Drive (2011) $5,771,107 -49% 2,904 18 $1,987 $21,424,482 2 FilmDistrict
7 The Help $4,400,000 -32% 2,695 -319 $1,633 $154,444,102 7 Disney / DreamWorks
8 Straw Dogs (2011) $2,100,000 -59% 2,408 0 $872 $8,883,854 2 Sony / Screen Gems
9 I Don't Know How She Does It $2,053,000 -53% 2,490 14 $824 $8,019,425 2 Weinstein Company
10 The Debt $1,288,598 -56% 1,067 -764 $1,208 $28,995,061 4 Focus
11 Spy Kids: All The Time in the World $701,000 -56% 1,207 -443 $581 $37,009,438 6 Weinstein Company
LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Colombiana $965,000 -59% 847 -1086 $1,139 $35,150,443 5 Sony / TriStar
2 Crazy, Stupid, Love $785,000 -50% 675 -470 $1,163 $82,070,550 9 Warner Bros.
3 The Smurfs $560,000 -55% 669 -750 $837 $138,372,056 9 Sony / Columbia
4 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $405,000 -14% 251 -55 $1,614 $351,906,539 13 Paramount / DreamWorks
5 Don't Be Afraid of the Dark (2011) $345,454 -69% 424 -910 $815 $23,468,975 5 FilmDistrict
6 Captain America: The First Avenger $306,000 -46% 334 -206 $916 $174,796,933 10 Paramount
7 The Guard $276,409 -19% 167 -35 $1,655 $4,192,238 9 Sony Pictures Classics
8 Our Idiot Brother $249,000 -81% 411 -1336 $606 $24,434,386 5 Weinstein Company
9 Midnight in Paris $233,035 -32% 165 -136 $1,412 $54,442,816 19 Sony Pictures Classics
10 Apollo 18 $184,000 -83% 339 -1456 $543 $17,381,380 4 Weinstein Company
11 Sarah's Key $131,000 -51% 151 -115 $868 $6,591,183 10 Weinstein Company
12 Kung Fu Panda 2 $84,000 -14% 113 -29 $743 $165,235,698 18 Paramount / DreamWorks
13 Super 8 $64,000 -31% 102 -57 $627 $126,965,819 16 Paramount
PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Higher Ground $74,132 -33% 64 -17 $1,158 $581,353 5 Sony Pictures Classics
2 Puncture $35,714 -- 4 -- $8,929 $35,714 1 Millennium Entertainment
3 Restless (2011) $17,357 12% 17 12 $1,021 $41,338 2 Sony Pictures Classics
4 Incendiary: The Willingham Case $6,179 -- 1 -- $6,179 $6,179 1 Truly Indie

Excellent Saturday increase and weekend total for Dolphin Tale. Might finish with 80-90 mln total.

per BOG's twitter feed:

#LionKing #1 again w/ $22.1M, off just 27%, $61.7M in 10 days. $390.2M lifetime, #12 alltime. bit.ly/cEy0nv

The Lion King is performing phenomenally. I can't imagine Disney will take it out of theaters at this point.

Excellent starts for Moneyball and Dolphin Tale.

Abduction's opening is OK but doesn't indicate Taylor Lautner can open a movie to huge numbers on his own (yet?). Killer Elite probably should've done more between the starpower and big marketing push, but it was also a questionable release date.

Contagion is holding up surprisingly well in the face of heavy competition, it should still be good for $80M.

Drive avoided a 50% drop, which is impressive to me. It's not setting the world on fire, but at least it didn't experience the same fate as Warrior.

The Help could still make it to $175M depending on an awards push.

Biggest September weekend ever! It's sort of interesting to me to note that, since early August and with a couple of exceptions, audiences have really only been embracing films that were critically supported. Apes, The Help, The Debt, Contagion, Lion King, Drive, Dolphin Tale, Moneyball, etc.

I'm hoping when actuals are out Drive is still under a 50% drop. Pretty impressive hold, IMO.

Even so, Drive is heading to over 30 Million and should do decently on DVD/Blu-ray. It's definitely a success for FilmDistrict, IMO. Very impressive considering the film isn't the most mainstream friendly.

And yeah, audiences will go to the movies any time of year really if you put out a product they want to see. Even the weekend after Thanksgiving, a weekend that is usually considered a dead one, has seen hits when a studio bothers to try and open something good on that weekend (like The Last Samurai).

I'm liking the box office this year because the studios will cotton on and see that interesting quality films are bringing the 25+ crowd back to theaters and focus there efforts here as opposed to films aimed soley at the teen demo which has been very fickle this year.

And what a September this is turning out to be. There is a chance that we could end up with THREE $100, grossers - TLK, Moneyball and Dolphin.

Regardless - we should have THREE films over $80m.

Yes, there certainly are weaker weekends but there are no complete dud weekends if you release the right film.

Even the week after Memorial Day weekend used to be a dumping ground/avoided until Finding Nemo cleaned up.

Actually we'll DEFINITELY have three above $90 million and maybe four above $80 million (if Contagion can make it).

My Weekend Analysis


This weekend at the box-office has shown us that it doesn’t matter much when the movies are released. As long as the marketing is good and the movies appeal to different segments of audiences, several successful movies can be released on the same weekend even in September. We’ve had many successful movies coming out in September over the recent few years, but this weekend has become the biggest box-office weekend ever in September and the first one on which the Top 12 grossed more than $100 million. The $109.1 million cume was up a great 26.4% from the last frame and 20.1% from the same weekend last year when Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps opened on top.


In a surprise move, The Lion King re-release managed to withstand the onslaught of three more or less successful new wide releases and held on to the top spot for the second weekend in a row. The family classic made $22.1 million over the weekend, going down only 26.6% for a running total of $61.7 million. Its lifetime domestic gross now stands at $390.2 million as it easily passed Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, Return of the King and Star Wars: Revenge on the Sith on the all-time domestic chart. It’s currently the 12th-biggest domestic release ever, with its sight firmly set at the Top 10.

While its $30+ million opening was already amazing last weekend, its terrific hold is just unprecedented for a re-release in any recent times. Even the hugely successful Star Wars: A New Hope re-issue in 1997 declined over 30% in its second weekend, whereas the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 combo went down 37.8% in its second weekend last year. It becomes even moreso impressive if you consider that one of this weekend’s successful new films was also a 3D family-oriented film, putting it in direct competition to The Lion King. It looks like the family audiences has really been starved for new movies, but also that the classic’s WoM keeps carrying it. It’ll be very interesting to see, however, what kind of an effect the DVD/BluRay release will do to its theatrical business this upcoming week. So far the film has defied expectations, but availability on home video should cut its legs short. Nevertheless, it still has a great chance at $100 million and either way this re-release is one of the year’s biggest positive box-office surprises. Currently I expect it to end up with $105-110 million in the bank, boosting its lifetime gross above $430 million. In fact, it actually has a shot at beating Shrek 2 to (once again) become the highest-grossing animated movie ever and enter the domestic all-time Top 5.


Entering the Top 12 at #2, Moneyball opened to $20.6 million from 2,993 theatres for a per-theatre-average of $6,883. The Brad Pitt vehicle that adapted the true story of Bîlly Beane, the manager of Oakland Athletics and his sabremetric approach to assembling a competitive and affordable baseball team is considered as one of the year’s bigger Academy Awards contenders and opened to stellar reviews. The $20+ million opening is great for a film like this, making it the biggest opening weekend ever for a baseball-themed film and already the 18th-highest grossing baseball film domestically. On top of that, it’s the 5th-biggest opening weekend for any sports drama. It’s also another success for Brad Pitt who once again proves himself to be one of the bigger draws of our times. Moneyball is his 15th live action #1 movie and his 10th $20+ million opening. We’ll definitely see this movie hanging around for a while to come as well-received sports movies tend to develop terrific legs. Examples include The Blind Side, The Rookie and Remember the Titans (also a September release). As it should pick up serious awards buzz in a couple of months it should find itself with a total gross around $90-105 million.


Settling for the third spot this weekend, WB’s Dolphin Tale took in $20.3 million from 3,507 venues for a $5,777 PTA. It’s quite incredible that a $20+ million opener in September can’t make it to #1, let alone break into the Top 2, but that just goes on to show this weekend’s strength. Dolphin Tale is the completely new family-oriented movie since Spy Kids: Al the Time in the World (as The Lion King is a re-release of an older film). That certainly helped its opening along with great reviews and the 3D boost. The movie managed to score the rare A+ grade from CinemaScore which means that there are still great things to come. There are no other 3D releases until The Three Musketeers on September 21st and no real family-oriented movies until Puss in Boots on November 4th. In other words, there’s pretty much nothing in its way to developing great legs and becoming one of this fall’s biggest movies as it should end up with $95-110 million.


Opening at #4, Taylor Lautner’s vehicle outside of the Twilight franchise, Abduction, made $11.2 million over the weekend. The movie averaged $3,592 from 3,118 theatres. It’s a fairly solid opening for the movie that received a true lashing by the critics (currently standing at 3% at RottenTomatoes.com). It goes on to show, however, that having starred in a very popular franchise doesn’t automatically make you a big draw on your own. Certainly, the movie would have started even lower without Lautner, but it still opened somewhat below expectations. With likely frontloading due to Twilight fans and probably average word-of-mouth, the movie won’t last long in theatres and should finish with $28-30 million.


Open Road Films’ first release, Killer Elite, bowed to $9.5 million from 2,986 theatres ($3,182 PTA) at the 5th spot despite a strong cast consisting of Jason Statham, Clive Owen and Robert De Niro. While there is not much direct competition coming up, the film should be naturally frontloaded and doesn’t look to have great WoM to boot. It should find its way to a $24 million total which is in the range where most Statham films seem to be ending up nowadays (he already has seven movies that made $22-32 million).


The all-star thriller Contagion slipped four spots to #2 this weekend. It grossed $8.6 million (down 41.1%) bringing its total gross to $57.1 million after 17 days. It is currently tracking around $7 million behind last year’s September thriller hit The Town. Overall the film has showcased good legs so far and with its adult appeal, good reviews and strong cast it should stay on the radar for a while. It will go on to finish with $78 million when all is said and done.


Losing 49.1% of its audiences last weekend’s acclaimed release Drive dipped to the 7th spot of the box-office this weekend. The arthouse action-thriller made $5.8 million over the three-day frame and now stands at $21.4 million. Given its $15 million budget the film is a certified success for FilmDistrict. However, with many movies being released over the next two weeks it’ll surely start losing theatres pretty fast as its PTA is far from great and WoM seems to be mixed. It’ll wind up with $33 million in the bank, making it the second hit for Ryan Gosling this year (with The Ides of March still to come in two weeks).


The Help is still doing really well. In its seventh week now, the bestseller adaptation dropped just 32.4% to $4.4 million (second-best drop in the Top 12) and the 8th spot of the charts. Its running total is now $154.4 million as it is getting close to enter the all-time Top 200 domestically. The movie is a gigantic hit and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of it. This should play well into the awards season and I wouldn’t be surprised by a re-expansion at some point in December or January. Therefore, I still see it making it to $175 million in total.


Delivering the worst hold in the Top 12, Straw Dogs decreased 59%, making $2.1 million for a pitiful $8.9 million total. With four wide releases next weekend, it should lose many theatres and never recover, ending up with $12 million.


I Don’t Know How She Does It rounded off the Top 10 with $2.1 million (down 53.4%). Its total stands at $8 million. Being the movie with the worst per-theatre-average in the Top 12 it is also unlikely to keep its screens for long and should finish with around $12 million as well.


Focus Features’ thriller The Debt dropped out of the Top 10 with a $1.3 million gross this weekend (down 56.2%) for a running cume of $29 million after four weeks. It doesn’t have much gas left in the tank and adult-oriented films like The Ides of March will soon make forget about it. It will leave the theatres with a solid $32 million in its pockets.


In a very surprising turn of events, Kevin Hart: Laugh at My Pain entered the Top 12 at #12 in its third weekend. The stand-up comedy concert movie added another 57 theatres this weekend, bringing the total theatres count to 287 and made $1.1 million (down just 0.6%) for a total of $5.2 million. It has already become the most successful movie of this kind since Martin Lawrence’s Runteldat in 2002.and should end up with $8-10 million, depending on how far the expansion will go from now on.

I wonder when The Help will come to DVD. Probably November or December. It's up for pre-order on Amazon. Can't see it expanding later in the year if it's out on DVD by then. If not though it definitely would.

As for movies outside of the Top 12


As a result from losing over 1,150 theatres, Rise of the Planet of the Apes suffered its worst drop yet and now definitely won't reach $180 million and beat Thor. Though it will still soon pass Captain America: The First Avenger. Either way, its performance has been commendable and it'll finish with $176 million.


Crazy, Stupid, Love also had its worst decline, though it managed to barely avoid a 50+% drop once again. The movie is a true WoM hit and should still crawl to $85 million.


Cowboys & Aliens keeps inching towards $100 million and with dollar theatres still ahead, it might actually make it to $101 million.


Midnight in Paris just won't die, managing what seems to be the best hold of all non-expanding movies this weekend. Should be good for $56 million now, unless it plays throughout the awards season in which case $60 million can't be ruled out.

Wow, Lion King is going to make the all time top 10 look so weird, lol

I just noticed yet another notable record. This weekend, The Lion King accomplished something that even the original couldn't. It went past Fantastia on the all time adjusted for inflation box office list. It is now at $676,524,700 adjusted for inflation.

By passing Fantastia, The Lion King is now the 20th biggest film ever adjusted for inflation. But the biggest accomplishment is that The Lion King became the third most successful animated film of all time adjusted for inflation this weekend, behind only Snow White and 101 Dalmations ($868,730,000 and $796,340,500 respectably).

I know they already had a direct to video version, but if a 3D re-release of The Lion King can do $100 m +, and a Toy Story 3 sequel can do $400 m +, if I were Disney I would start development on a theatrical Lion King 2. If Cars 2 can get a sequel, I don't see why The Lion King can't get a theatrical one. Even 17 years later, clearly there is a demand for seeing the characters on the big screen again.

As an aside, Dolphin Tale's opening is absolutely phenomenal given the strength of The Lion King. It probably could have done $25 m if it was first out the gate.

With the success of this Lion King re-release, I think they should re-release Lion King 2, this time theatrically. I didn't even think it was bad. In fact, I enjoyed it. Sure it wouldn't be as big as this re-release of the original, but what the hell. I think a lot of these re-releases could do better than some of the original product Disney might put out, and this costs less.

If they wanted to make a new Lion King that would be fine, but I don't think it should be called Lion King 2 since they already made one of those.

They should call it Simba's Pride or something like that.

Really? Both MB and DT are undoubtedly going to have a 4.5+ multiplier? That seems optimistic to me.

No to all of this If anything I want to see Beauty and the Beast re-released properly, especially since the 3D conversion was already done and it's been released in some international markets.

I do think they should re-release Beauty & The Beast.

I hate this adjusting the BO for inflation. The math is never right. For example Gone with the Wind sold about 400 Millon worth of tickets in its 2 years. Then it was released atleast half a dozen times before the 1960's Then it had ahuge re release(ala star wars, this years Lion King) in the 1960's. Then was released again area more times after. What people always do is take cumlative gross of a film then multiply it by the ticket price the 1st year. U end up totally screwing up the figures. I mean that's why all these old movies adjust so high. It's really annoying, and inaccurate. U can't take all the money a movie has made in 70 years then multiply every ticket by what the ticket cost in 1939.

I hate this adjusting the BO for inflation. The math is never right. For example Gone with the Wind sold about 400 Millon worth of tickets in its 2 years. Then it was released atleast half a dozen times before the 1960's Then it had ahuge re release(ala star wars, this years Lion King) in the 1960's. Then was released again area more times after. What people always do is take cumlative gross of a film then multiply it by the ticket price the 1st year. U end up totally screwing up the figures. I mean that's why all these old movies adjust so high. It's really annoying, and inaccurate. U can't take all the money a movie has made in 70 years then multiply every ticket by what the ticket cost in 1939.

BOM does the calculation based on the ticket price the year of rerelease - the trouble with Gone With the Wind is that no one ever seems to have evidence of what the film made in exactly which years.

Of course, there are a dozen other factors that skew admission numbers.

With the actuals out, I revise my initial statement (which was based on both breaking $20 million). However, only for Moneyball. I am very confident about Dolphin Tale making it there and for Moneyball, I'd say it is a 80% likelihood now.

No 3D movies until October 21st will help Dolphin Tale and no family competition until November as well. Also, there's the A+ CinemaScore.

And Moneyball seems to have great WoM and awards buzz, so a multiplier of at least 4 should happen.

As of this weekend Bad Teacher is at 99.68 Million. This is becoming hilarious at this point I heard Sony is doing "special midnight showings" this weekend in first run theaters too.