Yeah, more or less.

A Miyazaki film missing ¥10 billion can be considered somewhat disappointing though, but it's also not too surprising either. I was iffy predicting as much before it opened, but then its opening was quite strong and was plenty to get it to ¥10 billion. But its legs, namely its second weekend drop, were a bit rough and it's going to finish over ¥1 billion shy of the mark.

But again, it's not *that* surprising and hard to call it a disappointment at the same time.

It's been nine years since we've had a Studio Ghibli film (ten since Miyazaki's last), and the market has changed quite a lot in that time, especially in how animation films perform. Disney/Pixar has really declined while Illumination has overtaken them in Western animation, and the quality of anime films based on anime/manga has improved greatly and their numbers have grown considerably.

Miyazaki and Ghibli are sort of "relics" of the past, I'd say. Don't want that to sound like I'm throwing them out or something, it's just that the market has changed and they haven't really been apart of it for about a decade now. Expecting the type of box office figures he put up 15, 20+ years ago in 2023 was going to be unlikely.

I really think Boy and the Heron faltered more due to mixed WOM rather than Japanese audiences moving past Miyazaki. If his next film is a return to previous style in the vein of Howl or Spirited Away 10B seems pretty easy to achieve

Mission: Impossible Box-Office History (1996-):

OPENINGS:
¥1.390 billion ($12.8 million) / N/A - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
¥1.087 billion ($7.7 million) / 698,169 - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Part 1 (2023)*
¥720.1 million ($6.3 million) / 528,245 - Mission: Impossible III (2006)
¥639.0 million ($5.7 million) / 450,315 - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2018)
¥573.5 million ($4.6 million) / 427,281 - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (2015)
¥573.2 million ($7.3 million) / 437,751 - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (2011)
¥545.0 million ($4.9 million) / N/A - Mission: Impossible (1996)

2-Day (Past-2022) / *3-Day (2023-Present)

TOTALS:
¥9.70 billion ($94.1 million) / 7.62 million - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
¥6.50 billion ($53.9 million) / 5.20 million - Mission: Impossible (1996)
¥5.41 billion ($36.5 million) / 3.56 million - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Part 1 (2023) *Final Est.*
¥5.38 billion ($70.5 million) / 4.24 million - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (2011)
¥5.15 billion ($46.5 million) / 4.17 million - Mission: Impossible III (2006)
¥5.14 billion ($42.3 million) / 3.91 million - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (2015)
¥4.72 billion ($42.5 million) / 3.40 million - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2018)

(And no, that USD total isn't a typo! LOL. The USD is nearly twice as strong as the JPY today, well, since early 2022, really, than it was back in 2010-2012. MI7 grossed more than MI4, but its USD total is barely half.)

Even if WOM was mixed, it probably should have gotten to ¥10 billion after its opening weekend. There were a lot of films released in July/August, but aside from it, only two others (Kingdom 3, MI7) got above ¥5 billion and probably had little/no crossover with Heron. It should have still been an easy first choice for casual moviegoers during the six busiest weeks of the year (mid-July to late-Aug).

But I'm not going to say Miyazaki can never have another film get ¥10 billion+. Maybe this film just wasn't what Japanese audience were wanting and didn't give it a pass despite it being his first film in ten years and (likely) his final film. He's also about to turn 83 and Heron was ten years between releases. If he begins working on a new film in the next year or two, yeah, he could make another film before he turns 90 perhaps, but there's a real clock to consider here now.

Also have to factor in failing to turn a profit in Japan. It was the most expensive film ever in Japan, and while no exact budget was released, it's north of ¥5 billion since we know that was the previous record. After taking the 50% theatrical share out, it's earned ¥4.3 billion before that's reduced further by Toho's 20% distributor share down to ¥3.4 billion. So that's probably a ¥2-2.5 billion loss assuming a ¥5.5-6 billion budget.

Of course, they can make up that loss by money earned from selling the distribution rights internationally, and it's looking to do quite well in the US for example, so that helps. There's still not much money to really be made on this movie in the end though, I don't think. Not enough to fund another ¥5 billion+ project on its own anyway, so money will need to come from elsewhere.

Love to see the updates Corpse! How's Wonka opening here? I saw one tweet saying its daily performance has been impressive but I don't know how much that is just appeasing Timothee stans on Twitter, heh.

Haven't done estimates in a while now, so take that into account (haha), but I'm thinking it earned ¥400-450 million ($2.8-3 million) it its debut.

Doesn't compare to 2005's film with Depp and Burton in their primes, of course, but I'd consider it a solid start for Wonka. And the holidays are coming up soon too, so legs should be good.

As long as legs deliver, it could earn ¥2.5-3 billion ($17-21 million) with this start.

Keep in mind, and I'll keep mentioning this, that the exchange rate has been horrendous (20-30 years lows) for a year and a half now (almost two years), so using USD results for comparisons is not a good way to judge a film's performance. A potential sub-$20m total looks poor, but its JPY gross and admissions would be good/respectable. That'd normally be a $25/30 million result.

O mentioned tourism is way up in Japan, and well, that's largely why. It's cheaper to travel there today than it has been since the early 1990s.

The USD is so strong vs the JPY, and prices in Japan have barely increased on items since the 1990s, that you can buy a lot more stuff there with your money now than you can in the US (or even Europe, etc.). You can get a PS5 for $50/60 less in Japan (was around $100 less but Sony raised the price a little this year), and a Switch for $90 less in Japan for example. New video games are also $10-15 less in Japan right now too. Just using video games as an example of how the exchange rate is affecting things, but it applies to pretty much everything. Movie ticket prices are higher in the US than Japan now in USD too due to the exchange rate.

The First Slam Dunk added 1 more week in the Top 10 (non-consecutive) thanks to its final week expansion back in August, so it's been updated.

One Piece Film Red's 5 week re-release that began in October were all in the top 10 and added five more to its total, so it's been updated.

The Super Mario Bros. movie added 2 more weeks (also consecutive) in the Top 10 since the last time I updated in August and has been updated too.

Nothing new since August (last update) has been added to the list.

Most Overall Weekends in the Top 10 (1998-):

44 (2 from 2012 re-release & 2 from 2023 re-release) - Titanic (1997)
39 (7 from 2020 re-release) - Spirited Away (2001)*
33 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)^^
31 (2 from 2020 re-release) - Your Name. (2016)*
31 (7 from 2020 re-release) - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
29 - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
29 (5 from 2023 re-release) - One Piece Film Red (2022)
24 - Parasite (2020)^
21 - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
21 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
20 - Armageddon (1998)
19 - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
19 - Frozen (2014)
18 - Suzume (2022)
18 (2 from 2022 re-release) - Avatar (2009)
18 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
18 - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)^^
18 - Weathering With You (2019)^
18 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
18 - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
18 - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
17 (1 from 2020 re-release) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)*
16 - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)
16 - Midsommar (2020)^
16 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
16 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
15 - Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (2021)^^
15 - In This Corner of the World (2016)
15 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
15 - Monsters Inc. (2002)
15 - The Green Mile (2000)
15 - Deep Impact (1998)
14 - Not Quite Dead (2020)^
14 - The Eternal Zero (2013)
14 - The Wind Rises (2013)
14 - Ponyo (2008)
14 - The Last Samurai (2003)
14 - The Matrix (1999)
13 - Belle (2021)
13 (2 from 2020 re-release) - Shin Godzilla (2016)*
13 - Frozen II (2019)
13 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
13 - Les Miserables (2012)
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
13 - Finding Nemo (2003)
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2003)
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2002)
13 - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
12 - RRR (2022)
12 - Birds of Prey (2020)^
12 - Fukushima 50 (2020)^
12 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
12 - Zootopia (2016)
12 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
12 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
12 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
12 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
12 - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
12 - Saving Private Ryan (1998)

*:Re-released during Spring or Summer 2020 in response to Covid-19.
^: Run in the Top 10 bolstered by numerous delays in Spring & Summer 2020 in response to Covid-19.
^^: Run in the Top 10 bolstered by several delays in Spring 2021 in response to targeted SOEs.


Most-Consecutive Weekends in the Top 10 (1998-)

40 - Titanic [Dec. 20-21 to Sept. 19-20] (1997-1998)
32 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train [Oct. 16-17 to May 22-23] (2020-2021)^^
29 - Your Name. [Aug. 27-28 to Mar. 11-12] (2016-2017)
26 - Spirited Away [July 21-22 to Jan. 12-13] (2001-2002)
24 - The First Slam Dunk [Dec. 03-04 to May 12-14] (2022-2023)
24 - Parasite [Jan. 11-12 to June 20-21] (2020)^
24 - Princess Mononoke [July 12-13 to Dec. 20-21] (1997)
21 - Top Gun: Maverick [May 28-29 to Oct. 15-16] (2022)
21 - Howl's Moving Castle [Nov. 20-21 to Apr. 09-10] (2004-2005)
20 - One Piece Film Red [Aug. 06-07 to Dec. 17-18] (2022)
20 - Armageddon [Dec. 12-13 to Apr. 24-25] (1998-1999)
19 - Bohemian Rhapsody [Nov. 10-11 to Mar. 16-17] (2018-2019)
19 - Frozen [Mar. 15-16 to July 19-20] (2014)
18 - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace [July 10-11 to Nov. 06-07] (1999)
18 - Bayside Shakedown [Oct. 31-Nov. 01 to Feb. 27-28] (1998-1999)
17 - Suzume [Nov. 12-13 to Mar. 03-05] (2022-2023)
17 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 [Dec. 25-26 to Apr. 16-17] (2021-2022)
16 - The Super Mario Bros. Movie [Apr. 28-30 to Aug. 11-13] (2023)
16 - Midsommar [Feb. 22-23 to June 06-07] (2020)^
16 - Avatar [Dec. 26-27 to Apr. 10-11] (2009-2010)
16 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! [July 19-20 to Nov. 01-02] (2003)
16 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone [Dec. 01-02 to Mar. 16-17] (2001-2002)
16 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets [Nov. 23-24 to Mar. 08-09] (2002-2003)
15 - Loved Like a Flower Bouquet [Jan. 30-21 to May 08-09] (2021)^^
15 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer [Apr. 14-15 to July 21-22] (2018)
15 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World [May 08-09 to Aug. 14-15] (2004)
15 - Monsters Inc. [Mar. 02-03 to July 08-09] (2002)
15 - The Green Mile [Mar. 25-26 to July 01-02] (2000)
15 - Deep Impact [June 20-21 to Sept. 26-27] (1998)
14 - The Wind Rises [July 20-21 to Oct. 19-20] (2013)
14 - Ponyo [July 18-19 to Oct. 18-19] (2008)
14 - The Last Samurai [Dec. 06-07 to Mar. 06-07] (2003-2004)
14 - The Matrix [Sept. 11-12 to Dec. 11-12] (1999)
13 - Belle [July 17-18 to Oct. 09-10] (2021)
13 - Not Quite Dead [Mar. 21-22 to June 13-14] (2020)^
13 - Frozen II [Nov. 23-24 to Feb. 15-16] (2019-2020)
13 - Weathering With You [July 20-21 to Oct. 12-13] (2019)
13 - Big Hero 6 [Dec. 20-21 to Mar. 14-15] (2014-2015)
13 - The Eternal Zero [Dec. 21-22 to Mar. 15-16] (2013-2014)
13 - Les Miserables [Dec. 22-23 to Mar. 16-17] (2012-2013)
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [Feb. 14-15 to May 08-09] (2004)
13 - Finding Nemo [Dec. 06-07 to Feb. 28-29] (2003-2004)
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers [Feb. 22-23 to May 17-18] (2003)
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring [Mar. 02-03 to May 25-26] (2002)
13 - Mission: Impossible II [July 08-09 to Sept. 30-Oct. 01] (2000)
12 - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time [Mar. 13-14 to May 29-30] (2021)^^
12 - Birds of Prey [Mar. 21-22 to June 06-07] (2020)^
12 - Beauty and the Beast [Apr. 22-23 to July 08-09] (2017)
12 - Zootopia [Apr. 23-24 to July 07-08] (2016)
12 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens [Dec. 19-20 to Mar. 05-06] (2015-2016)
12 - Stand By Me, Doraemon [Aug. 09-10 to Oct. 25-26] (2014)
12 - Alice in Wonderland [Apr. 17-18 to July 03-04] (2010)
12 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban [June 26-27 to Sept. 11-12] (2004)
12 - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones [July 13-14 to Sept. 28-29] (2002)
12 - Saving Private Ryan [Sept. 26-27 to Dec. 12-13] (1998)

^: Run in the Top 10 bolstered by numerous delays in Spring & Summer 2020 in response to Covid-19.
^^: Run in the Top 10 bolstered by several delays in Spring 2021 in response to targeted SOEs.

One Piece Film Red's 5 week re-release back in October nabbed it three additional weeks in the Top 5, so it's been updated.

Nothing new has been added to the chart since August (the last update).

Most Overall Weeks in the Top 5 (1998-):

40 (36-Consecutive; 1 from 2012 re-release & 2 from 2023 re-release) - Titanic (1997)
30 (24-Consecutive & 6 from 2020 re-release) - Spirited Away (2001)*
29 (22-Consecutive) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)^^
25 (19-Consecutive & 6 from 2020 re-release) - Princess Mononoke (1997)*
23 (23-Consecutive) - Parasite (2020)^
23 (16-Consecutive & 1 from 2020 re-release) - Your Name. (2016)*
22 (17-Consecutive & 3 from 2023 re-release) - One Piece Film Red (2022)
21 (17-Consecutive) - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
18 (18-Consecutive) - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
18 (18-Consecutive) - Frozen (2014)
18 (18-Consecutive) - Armageddon (1998)
16 (16-Consecutive) - Avatar (2009)
16 (16-Consecutive) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
16 (16-Consecutive) - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
15 (11-Consecutive) - Weathering With You (2019)
15 (15-Consecutive) - Deep Impact (1998)
14 (10-Consecutive) - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)^^
14 (13-Consecutive) - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
13 (13-Consecutive) - Suzume (2022)
13 (13-Consecutive) - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
13 (13-Consecutive) - Not Quite Dead (2020)^
13 (13-Consecutive) - The Last Samurai (2003)
13 (13-Consecutive) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
13 (13-Consecutive) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
13 (13-Consecutive) - The Matrix (1999)
12 (12-Consecutive) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)
12 (12-Consecutive) - Zootopia (2016)
12 (12-Consecutive) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
12 (12-Consecutive) - The Eternal Zero (2013)
12 (12-Consecutive) - The Wind Rises (2013)
12 (12-Consecutive) - Finding Nemo (2003)
12 (12-Consecutive) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)

*:Re-released during Spring or Summer 2020 in response to Covid-19.
^: Run in the Top 5 bolstered by numerous delays in Spring & Summer 2020 in response to Covid-19.
^^: Run in the Top 5 bolstered by several delays in Spring 2021 in response to targeted SOEs.

@Corpse. There is a talk about Oppenheimer releasing in Japan through a local distributor(not Universal) in 2024. I know in Japan the box office year starts in December of previous year. So we should hopefully get a date in the near future. Other option is to wait for academy awards and then release it in spring which is also a good date.

Welcome back, Corpse! I hope all is well with you and I missed your insightful coverage of Japanese box office.

Questions about two subjects:
1) Do you think The Boy and the Heron should be considered the new standard for Miyazaki-helmed Studio Ghibli films in terms of box office performances? Or did it benefit from the novelty factor of there not having been a Miyazaki film in decade? On the other hand, might the unique promotional campaign have hurt its potential?

2) Miyazaki isn't the only one to disappoint this year. Hideaki Anno suffered at box office as well. Shin Kamen Rider's ¥2.33 billion ($17.3 million) gross and 1.59 million admissions looks a little tepid next to the ¥4.44 billion ($34.2 million) gross and 2.99 million admissions of Shin Ultraman (2022) or ¥8.25 billion ($79.2 million) and 5.69 million admissions of Shin Godzilla (2016). And a huge drop from his last Evangelion movie. What do you think went wrong here? A far less enthusiastic reception or did Shin Kamen Rider play more like a comic book movie than a monster movie? A budget hasn't been officially reported. But do you think it turned a profit?

Toho bought the distributor rights to Universal films a while back, so they would have released it originally under their subsidiaries Toho-Towa or Towa Pictures that handle imported films from both Universal and Paramount (they also own the distributor rights to their films).

And yes, they decided not to release it themselves so it went up for auction where a small, independent distributor (Bitters End) won the distribution rights with plans to release it theatrically in 2024.

A Spring 2024 (March, perhaps) would be ideal for the reason you stated, award season wrapping up. Many Fall/Winter award films in the US get released in the Spring in Japan because of this too. If Oppenheimer is able to win Best Picture or Best Director at the Oscars, it can help attract some more moviegoers to it (at least winning the big awards has provided a boost for films in the past).

I will caution expecting anything big here though. There's the controversy, of course, that is going to be some degree of a hindrance, but Bitters End is also a small distributor so the release will likely be relatively small. It's a tricky one to predict though, I just wouldn't expect like... I don't know, $20-30 million or more.

I'm still of the "Miyazaki / Studio Ghibli" is a brand of the past mind. It's why I was saying that ¥10 billion, and especially more, wasn't a lock or likely before it opened. I think we saw the early signs this beginning with The Wind Rises in 2013. It only got above ¥10 billion because they decided to actively market it in the middle of its run as Miyazaki's final film "for real this time" that provided enough of a boost to get it above the mark.

A very well respected and renowned brand, obviously, but not one that commands today's audiences like it did fifteen or twenty years ago. Films based on TV anime are either matching or exceeding his biggest films in the market now. None of his films have any major records left in Japan, I don't think. It's a much different market today than it was five or ten years ago (and especially any further back in modern times).

If Miyazaki didn't want to make another film, I'm not sure Studio Ghibli would have even released another film theatrically like this one. It's been nine years since they closed their film production department, much of their staff and animators moved on to found Studio Ponoc, so Studio Ghibli isn't much of a film studio now and hasn't been for nearly a decade.

And I think all this plays a role in The Boy and the Heron underperforming. You can contribute the mixed WOM to it too, and maybe the strategy to not market it before its release hurt it (although the opening was very strong, on par with his biggest openings, so that kinda counters that idea to me), but it's still finished low enough that I feel it's more than just mixed WOM.

Feels more of just a shift in the market and a generational change that began close to ten years ago, when TV anime films like Detective Conan or One Piece first began to rise above their previous decades-long results, when new franchises like Yo-Kai Watch could explode out of nowhere, that we now see in full effect today (TV anime films bigger than ever and topping years and breaking records, new franchises exploding in popularity more frequently, etc.) than anything.

_____

I wouldn't compare Shin Kamen Rider to this because even if it was a decline from Shin Ultraman, and obviously Shin Godzilla, it still became the highest-grossing Kamen Rider film in its 50 year history. The Kamen Rider franchise, at least the films, have also been on a decline for the better part of a decade now (at least 5 years), so to get this result for a film in a franchise on the decline is a good achievement.

Note: Remember that December releases (and often late-Nov. releases if they earn enough into December) count towards the following year, 2024, so those films are excluded. I did add Kitarou Tanjou though, but since it's becoming very leggy, it might get bumped to 2024. I'll post the Top Grossing Films: 2024 in the first week of 2024 so we have more films on it.

Top Grossing Films: 2023
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥15.73 billion ($117.4 million) / 10.88 million [F] - The First Slam Dunk (Toei)
¥15 billion ↨
¥14.01 billion ($101.9 million) / 9.83 million [E] - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Toho-Towa)
¥13.83 billion ($102.1 million) / 9.79 million [E] - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (Toho)
¥10 billion ↨
¥8.61 billion ($60.0 million) / 5.78 million [150] - The Boy and the Heron (Toho)
¥5.56 billion ($39.3 million) / 3.89 million [E] - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony)
¥5.41 billion ($38.5 million) / 3.56 million [E] - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Towa Pictures)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.74 billion ($32.6 million) / 3.50 million [87] - Don't Call It Mystery: The Movie (Toho)
¥4.50 billion ($33.0 million) / 3.40 million [E] - Tokyo MER: Mobile Emergency Room (Toho)
¥4.34 billion ($32.5 million) / 3.65 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Sky Utopia (Toho)
¥4.31 billion ($33.0 million) / 2.37 million [F] - Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney)
¥4.16 billion ($30.9 million) / 2.95 million [F] - Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Swordsmith Village (Toho, Aniplex)
¥4.15 billion ($28.5 million) / 2.70 million [38] - Godzilla Minus One (Toho)
¥3.79 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.51 million [E] - Fast X (Toho-Towa)
¥3.38 billion ($24.0 million) / 2.32 million [E] - The Little Mermaid (Disney)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.83 billion ($19.9 million) / 1.62 million [E] - IDOLiSH7 Movie: LIVE 4bit - BEYOND THE PERiOD (Bandai Namco, Toei)
¥2.80 billion ($21.1 million) / 2.13 million [F] - My Happy Marriage (Toho)
¥2.69 billion ($19.8 million) / 2.00 million [E] - Tokyo Revengers 2: Bloody Halloween Part 1 - Destiny (Warner Bros.)
¥2.69 billion ($18.5 million) / 2.11 million [E] - Elemental (Disney)
¥2.67 billion ($20.1 million) / 2.03 million [F] - Fragments of the Last Will (Toho)
¥2.59 billion ($18.3 million) / 1.79 million [E] - Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Disney)
¥2.45 billion ($18.3 million) / 1.89 million [E] - The Legend & Butterfly (Toei)
¥2.44 billion ($18.5 million) / 1.85 million [F] - Dr. Coto's Clinic (Toho)
¥2.43 billion ($18.1 million) / 1.02 million [F] - BTS: Yet to Come to Cinemas (Avex Entertainment)
¥2.43 billion ($16.8 million) / 2.01 million [E] - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle: Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho)
¥2.33 billion ($17.3 million) / 1.59 million [E] - Shin Kamen Rider (Toei)
¥2.31 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.73 million [E] - Tokyo Revengers 2: Bloody Halloween Part 2 - Decisive Battle (Warner Bros.)
¥2.17 billion ($14.9 million) / 1.47 million [E] - The Haunted Mansion (Disney)
¥2.12 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.54 million [E] - Monster (Toho, Gaga)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.79 billion ($12.6 million) / 0.89 million [F] - Samurai Beyond Admiration Record to the World's Best (Asmik Ace, JSports)
¥1.46 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.93 million [E] - Meg 2: The Trench (Warner Bros.)
¥1.45 billion ($10.0 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Pretty Cure All Stars F (Toei)
¥1.34 billion ($9.2 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Silent Service (Toho)
¥1.32 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.85 million [F] - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney)
¥1.29 billion ($9.0 million) / 0.86 million [F] - Blue Giant (Toho Video Division)
¥1.28 billion ($8.8 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Toho Video Division)
¥1.25 billion ($8.9 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Rohan Kishibe Goes to the Louvre (Asmik Ace)
¥1.24 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.91 million [E] - Phases of the Moon (Shochiku)
¥1.19 billion ($8.2 million) / 0.86 million [66] - Analog (Toho, Asmik Ace)
¥1.15 billion ($7.9 million) / 0.81 million [24] - Kitarou Tanjou: GeGeGe no Nazo (Toei)
¥1.11 billion ($7.7 million) / 0.73 million [E] - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
¥1.09 billion ($8.1 million) / 0.62 million [F] - Titanic 25th Anniversary (Disney)
¥1.08 billion ($8.3 million) / 0.84 million [F] - Ichikei's Crow (Toho)
¥1.04 billion ($7.1 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Mother, Is That You? (Shochiku)
¥1.04 billion ($7.1 million) / 0.69 million [E] - City Hunter: Angel's Tears (Toho-Towa)
¥1.03 billion ($7.0 million) / 0.67 million [E] - John Wick: Chapter 4 (Pony Canyon)
¥1.00 billion ($7.7 million) / 0.80 million [E] - Lonely Castle in the Mirror (Shochiku)
¥1.00 billion ($7.1 million) / 0.71 million [E] - And Yet, You Are Too Sweet (Shochiku)
¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥15 billion (Phenomenon) / ¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

Haven't been active here in a while but it's nice to see you back Corpse :-) always appreciate your analysis!

Thanks.

Not really a lot going on at the moment, although it's in a better state than the current US box office.

-Wonka had a decent debut, and if WOM is at least solid, it could have ¥2.5-3 billion potential with the help of the upcoming holidays.

-Godzilla Minus One is beginning to hold very well, probably due to its performance in the US helping to generate buzz among more casual audiences in Japan who are coming out to see it now. I think this week has taken its chances at ¥5 billion over 50%.

-Kitarou Tanjou: GeGeGe no Nazo saw a big increase and might be far away from where it may eventually finish. I don't know if there was some giveaway or event, or maybe a sizable expansion, but until we see signs of it slowing down it's hard to predict where it's heading.

-Fly Me to the Saitama 2 is doing alright, but it looks to finish a good bit behind the original (which is notable as it was the first blockbuster, grossing over ¥5 billion, after theaters reopened nationwide again in June 2020 just a month later in July). This one might only be heading for around half of that, but still might be a little too early to rule out, say, ¥3 billion which would be good IMO.

This upcoming weekend though sees the release of The Imaginary (Studio Ponoc's new film, international title Raja in the Attic, I think) and Disney's Wish. Hoping for the best for The Imaginary, but my expectations are a little reserved. If it can do similar numbers to Mary and the Witch's Flower, ¥3-4 billion, I think that'd be a good result. But I hope it can see a proper breakout. And I'm pretty doubtful on Wish's prospects because of Disney's ongoing drought and the mixed reviews and poor numbers from elsewhere. This doesn't seem the film to snap their troubles (don't really see anything on their 2024 slate that can either...).

But the surefire big film of the season, Spy X Family: Code White, releases on Dec. 22nd and should liven things up during the holiday period. Still not sold on it being a ¥10 billion contender quite yet, as I don't know if it not being entirely canon will limit its potential. At least the author is involved with it, and I think it has some loose canon elements, otherwise I wouldn't expect it to be a ¥10 billion contender at all if it was 100% original with the author on the sidelines.

The lack of systematic exit poll in Japan means the media can spin whatever it want to fit the narrative, and the "mixed WOM" narrative just happened to fall into Ghibli.

In North America, it doesn't have just one, but two audience exit polls. It gets grade A- in CinemaScore, and 4.5/5 stars from PostTrak. What's more, it even have demographic breakdown of the audience, with 80 percent of ticket buyers between ages 18 and 34. I actually have fun with the idea that the future Ghibli's film should open in North America first to collect the positive narrative, and save Japan as the last market after it finished gather all the awards.

In probably the best news Disney has had in the market since 2019 (actually... it's the best news, really), Wish is actually doing pretty well so far!

Estimating it earned around ¥105-115 million on Friday, which is just decent as a number, but on a Friday for a film I'm assuming skews younger, it's quite good. Saturday should come in about twice as high I'd say and Sunday roughly even with that, so could be looking at an opening weekend above ¥500 million (maybe closer to ¥600 million if Saturday doubles up).

This is still down a bit (although not too much) from what you'd typically expect from a big new Disney animated film, but it would be Disney's second biggest overall opening in 4 years (just behind Avatar 2, but likely ahead of it in admissions).

If it opens above ¥500 million, it could be looking at ~¥3.5/4 billion ($25/30 million) with the upcoming holidays. That could be more than the combined totals of Pixar's last two films, and like 5x more than the combined totals of Disney's last two animated films. Doubt it'll be able to give Disney their first blockbuster (¥5 billion) since 2019, but hey, it's pretty impressive if it happens overcoming everything against it and Japan would be its biggest international market by a massive margin.

Wish did end up doubling up on Saturday, so should end up at/above ¥500 million for the weekend. Maybe a little higher if Sunday sees an increase. This should be enough to lock-in ¥3 billion, but holiday legs could carry it to ¥3.5/4 billion ($25-30 million).

The Imaginary unfortunately is disappointing. It's skewing very young, so Sunday could see a good bump, but it's well down compared to Mary and the Witch's Flower. Taking its younger skew into account, it might miss ¥200 million for the weekend. Legs may be strong with this release date, but this start would make reaching much more than ¥1.5 billion ($12 million) difficult unless it manages to spawn particularly strong legs. Even then, ¥2 billion or so (~$15 million) wouldn't be a little disappointing still.