and here are the top openers to never appear on the top ten list!
(expanded)

1. Incredibles 70.5
2. Day After Tommorow 68.7
3. Bruce Almighty 67.95
4. Hulk 62.1
5. Two Towers 62
6. Scooby Doo 54.2
7. Bourne Supermacy 52.5
8. I, Robot 52.2
9. Men in Black II 52.1
10. Van Helsing 51.7
11. 8 Mile 51.2
12. Jurassic Park III 50.8
13. The Village 50.7
14. 2Fast2Furious 50.5
15. The Matrix Revolutions 48.5
16. Scary Movie 3 48.1
17. Tomb Raider 47.7
18. Shark Tale 47.6
19. Fellowship of the Ring 47.2
20. Die Another Day 47.0
21. Troy 46.9
22. Pirates of the Carribean 46.6
23. Bad Boys II 46.5
24. Ice Age 46.3
25. Meet the Fockers 46.1

Updated!
1 Spider-Man $114,844,116 5/03/02
2 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $108,435,841
3 Shrek 2 $108,037,878 5/19/04
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367 6/04/04
5 The Matrix Reloaded $91,774,413 5/15/03
6 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621 11/16/01
7 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $88,357,488 11/15/02
8 Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227 6/30/04
9 X2: X-Men United $85,558,731 5/02/03
10 The Passion of the Christ $83,848,082 2/25/04
Off of the list (was there on 1/1/05):
Attack of the clones

how ironic that sith knocked clones off the chart!

Well WOTW may be here soon.

Doubtful.

A month ago I may have argued with you on that, but after the past few weeks, I don't know.

that would be intresting if only one film even makes the top ten openers this year.

It's, like, a 5% chance of it ending up on this chart. The movie opens on a Wednesday, first of all, and the business will be spread out over the long week.

I tell you Sony makes every movie thats a threat to spideys opening move to wensdays!

War of the Worlds won't make the Top 10 because of the Wednesday opening. On that list, only three movies opened on a Wednesday and another two on a Thursday. Out of those four were sequels to huge blockbusters (ROTS, Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2 and The Matrix Reloaded). Which leaves us with The Passion of the Christ which is #10, hehe. War of the Worlds is not a sequel, nor does it have the controversy/hype surrounding it like The Passion of the Christ did. I see a 3-day weekend of around $75-78 million, but it won't break $80 million, I think.

If it opened on a Friday, however, I believe it'd have definitely opened to $85+ million and made it onto the list.


One more. movie this year will make it onto the list, however. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. I expect it to take the 4th spot as it will probably open to the same as the third movie, if not even a bit more. It'll also kick The Passion of the Christ out of the Top 10 leaving Spider-man and Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone as the only non-sequels on the list.

Expect X3 and POTC2 to break into the list next year. By the end of the next year, only the 10th movie on the list will have an opening weekend of under $90 million, I think. Maybe not even that. I wonder how long it'll take until all openings in the Top 10 will be $100+ million openings...

I'm not sure about hp4, I'm picturing it though to make 86 on its opening so yeah.


Kong maybe...

only 2 new films made it in 98. which was consired to be a lagluster year as well.

King Kong opens on a Wednesday in December, no way it'll get anywhere near that list. It won't make much more over 3 days than ROTK (or any more for that matter, I'd say).

Harry Potter movies have been steady when it comes to the PTA in their opening weekends. The first had a PTA of $24,590 in 3,672 theatres. The second movie had a PTA of $23,997 in 3,682 theatres and the third movie had a PTA of $24,303 in 3,855 theatres. That is very consistent if you ask me. I figure the fourth will open in even more theatres, probably around 3,900-3,950 this time around and get a similar PTA of around $24,000. That would give it an opening weekend of around $93.5-95 million. With the new book being released this July, the Harry Potter hype should be raised this November...

with hp4 making estimated 101 million its possibly on here
yes its on the charts
I'll update them when the actuals come tomorrow

And the most incredible thing about that all, was that the opening weekend record was broken 3 times in just a month's time! (From the May 26-29th 1989 weekend to the June 23-25th weekend). Imagine the equivalent of that happening now?

At least in today's dollars, this is what that month would have looked like:

May 26-29th Indiana Jones 3 $59.68 m (4day)/$317.86 m

(Two weekends in between)

June 16-18 Ghostbusters II $47.51 m/$181.4 m
June 23-25 Batman $65.3 m/$405.0 m

Well looks like two movies this year will make the new top 10 (SW3 and HP4). Since Kong comes out on a Wednesday it is ruled out and I highly doubt Narnia canm pull in over $85 million to displace X2.

Updated!
1 Spider-Man $114,844,116 5/03/02
2 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $108,435,841 5/19/05
3 Shrek 2 $108,037,878 5/19/04
4 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $102,335,066 11/18/05
5 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367 6/04/04
6 The Matrix Reloaded $91,774,413 5/15/03
7 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621 11/16/01
8 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $88,357,488 11/15/02
9 Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227 6/30/04
10 X2: X-Men United $85,558,731 5/02/03

Pirates of the Carribean 2 is going to be up there next year if they don't release it on a Wednesday.

it still probably could crack it into the top ten on a wed. (or at least the top 20)
I think this chart will remain silent until the release of X3. (or does M:I3 come out first?)
but yeah I think Pirates 2 will be on here.
Cars has a minor chance of making it, although I can't picture it going higher then 80M.

I wonder what the next non franchise film to be on here will be?

Da Vinci Code maybe.

Other one that could do it:
Battle Angel

Franchises are owning, so its kind've hard for a movie to come out of nowhere.

Pirates of the Caribbean 2 has a great shot if it's a Friday release.

Non-franchise.

...Unless you weren't replying to that, in which case nvm.

1 Superman Returns $130,525,688 6/30/06
2 Spider-Man $114,844,116 5/03/02
3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $108,435,841
4 Shrek 2 $108,037,878 5/19/04
5 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367 6/04/04
6 The Matrix Reloaded $91,774,413 5/15/03
7 X3: The One Brett Directed $91,255,865 5/26/06
8 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621 11/16/01
9 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $88,357,488 11/15/02
10 Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227 6/30/04
11 X2: X-Men United $85,558,731 5/02/03
12 The Passion of the Christ $83,848,082 2/25/04

revolutions, you realize that it's not opening on a Friday, right? That's Independence Day weekend, I believe, making it impossible for it to get even $100 million, let alone the record opening weekend.

dude NOTHING is impossible.

June 30th is a Friday Zing, I think 100m+ is in the bag