Im not sure if this thread is made but back in march I saw many predictions for DAT at 350 million and Troy at over 240 million. Van Helsing had some predictions at 200 million but they werent as badly overpredicted as the latter two I mentioned. I dont know if I should include bombs like Alexander since I dont think anyone expected it to bomb. Heres what I think were the most overpredicted movies of 2004

1. Troy
2. The Village
3. Day After Tommorrow
4. Sponge Bob Square Pants
5. Van Helsing
6. Blade 3
7. Oceans 12
8. Team America

I think I had one of the worst predictions for Village and Chronicles of Riddick

Troy
The Village
The Day After Tomorrow
Blade: Trinity
Team America: World Police
Alexander
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (not too overpredicted, though I saw a lot of $350+ predictions)
Hellboy
The Chronicles of Riddick
Anchorman
The Incredibles (a whole lot of $350+ predictions)

For Me it had to be
Harry Potter 3- I was predicting 320+

I predicted 150m for Troy, but I saw prediction as high as 300m

Oh, and these were some of my early predictions for the movies I said were overpredicted.

Troy - $220 million
The Village - $160 million
The Day After Tomorrow - $240 million
Blade: Trinity - $100 million
Team America: World Police - $70 million
Alexander - $140 million
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $270 million
Hellboy - $80 million
The Chronicles of Riddick - $130 million
Anchorman - $130 million
The Incredibles - $280 million

I overpredicted Troy at $240 Million, and suprisingly DAt at $300 Million

i overpredicted spongebob thinking itd get 150.

I overpredicted INCREDIBLES, OPEN WATER, 13 GOING ON 30, CLUB DREAD, SEED OF CHUCKY, and some more i can't remember.


I UNDERPREDICTED mean girls, grudge, saw and forgotten.
But i love those movies.

Others that weren't mentioned:

-The Ladykillers (many thought this was a lock for 100 million)
-Sky Captain
-Open Water
-The Punisher
-Closer (total wise)

Hero

You're kidding, right?

Stupid Village

Overall Troy is by far and away the most overpredicted movie of 2004. I mean pretty much everyone (with the exception of DP07) predicted $180+ million for it.

Other overpredicted:

Team America: World Police
The Terminal
The Ladykillers
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
The Village
Blade: Trinity

Spider-Man 2 with 460m

and pretty much every other film :wink:

I agree, some people were predicting 500m+

My Troy under 150m club at BOM had about 5 members. Torrino was in it. I think our thread creator was too.

I think I'm the only person who underpredicted both Troy and The Village.

I overpredicted:
Eurotrip - Let's just say it earned a fraction of my prediction.
Secret Window - By about 13m.
Ladykillers - By 25m or so, I think
Hellboy - By about 30m
13 Going on 30 - I don't remember exactly, but by alot. 3400+ theaters.
Van Helsing - Early predictions by about 70m-80m. Before release by about 40m-50m.
The Day After Tomorrow - By 25m-30m.
Riddick - I predicted about double the actual.
The Terminal - Early predictions by 70m. Before release by about 40m.
King Arthur - I'll put it this way: my most overpredicted of the year.
Harold and Kumar - See Eurotrip
AVP - By about 20m-25m. More frontloaded then I expected.
Resident Evil 2 - By 10m.
Shark Tale - Don't ask, although I lowered it alot by release.
Taxi - I predicted more then double.
Team America - Quite a bit, don't remember exactly. This is the one I regret the most actually since I was thinking for a while that it would bomb. Then I changed my mind.
The Incredibles - By nearly 100m.
Spongebob - By about 20m.
Blade: Trinity - See Riddick.
Lemony Snicket - By about 50m early on. Later that was by over 80m.
Spanglish - By about 30m-40m I think.
The Aviator - Still have to see.

I think that's every one of them.

Defo Troy, i over-predicted that like crazy! I gave it like $240M prediction

Im ashamed to say I overpredicted Troy by over $150m!! Was predicting $310m at one stage.

Others I overpredicted:

EuroTrip - $30m
Girl Next Door - $70m
Harold and Kumar $105m
Van Helsing $175m
Anchorman $130m
Oceans 12 - $220m

Harold And Kumar, $105M??!?

haha yeah a month or so before it opened I was convinced it would be a sleeper - im ashamed - one of my worst predictions ever.

You overpredicted it by $180 Million, get it right, that is terrible mate! :razz:

I think I underpredicted SpongeBob SquarePants more than anything else. Its $80M total was less than half what I thought it would make.

*cough*. I predicted $134m, I think. Go check BOM! :razz:

What about Thunderbirds? The Girl Next Door? - Don't forget about the "smaller" movies.

Definitely Alexander. I was about to call everyone a moron for including The Day After Tomorrow... then I recalled predicting $300 million. Oops... definitely Team America.

Hehe. I believe I said Alexander would only make $15M over Thanksgiving when others were saying $25M+.

It feels good to be right sometimes \:D/

Remember when I really UNDERpredicted The Stepford Wives, and started a whole thread on it? Hopefully I can be right like that someday, with a bold prediction. Someday... someday... :wink: