Let's say that Kong increases by 100% today for 13 mill, then it increases by 15% on Saturday to 15 mill, then it drops by 35% on Sunday to 8.5...that is about 36-37 mill. Now if Narnia drops a reasonable 40%, it would make about 39-40 mill. It might be close between the two. Then the loonies will lose their fuckin minds.

Narnia is gonna drop more like 60-70p. Kong will make like 60-70m. So no. Not close.

Your're not serious are you? There is no way it drops 60-70%....it is not Aeon Flux.

Nah although Im having some fun with these Kong numbers, I highly doubt it will be outgrossed by Narnia. Narnia will probably end up around 30-35 million while Kong will get anywhere from 40-50 million this week. Still not too bad but it will be the 7th-8th grossing movie of the year, not the 2nd or 1st like so many people here were predicting

Narnia will drop 99% this weekend... Kong will increase 1000% on Friday... making it the CLEAR victor

Yeah I'm not serious. I'm never serious. I do think the weekend is gonna be better than 36m, easily, though.

I seriously doubt it would drop 15% on a Saturday in December if it opened on Wednesday. I don't think even Get Rich or Die Trying did that.

Also, no.

baumer's revenge.

He said increase 15%.

I agree that about not seeing this happening, though.

But seriously, I do wonder why they scheduled 3 tent pole movies so close together in almost around the 6 week interval especially during X-mas. People need the money to buy presents for others other than those 99 cent store stuff. They wont have much left to see the selection of movies out there

If only they would've released Kong on the 21st...

If Kong does have a smaller roar (heh) than expected at the box office over the holiday season, I do think that films like Fun With Dick And Jane and Rumor Has It will benefit positively.

Remember how Jim Carrey crippled The Matrix: Reloaded? The stars are lining up again for a similar scenerio.

Also, if The Family Stone is too "heavy", I think Rumor Has It could be a bigger success than any of us think. People are in good spiritsfor Christmas and fun and festive is what I think the audience is looking for. Meet the Fockers is a perfect example of audiences just looking for some joy during the Christmas holiday.

You know what? That is a very good possibility, but even I doubt it. I'm thinking an 15mil Fri. 16mil Sat. and around 11mil for Sun. 42mil for the weekend. Narnia will drop 45-50% for a 32.5mil-35.7mil weekend.

I saw Stone, its definitely a heavy film, I think done in a realistic fashion, but the scesnt hat funny are such that you are embarrased for the characters in a serious manner. This is not Ben Stiller sending a cork into a vase, this is SJP's character saying thigns that runt he gambit from funny to inapaprpiate..which makes her character far more real. If people are looking for stright comedy, then Rumour Has It, The Family Stone is a drama that happens to have a few laughs in it. The tone is very serious.

So you liked Family Stone?

I think The Family Stone is going to suffer from the marketing, because you'd never know it was anything but a light family fun Christmas comedy from every ad that has been shown. I'm seeing it either tonight or tomorrow. I'm liking it's box office prospects less and less, although that doesn't have anything to do with the perceived quality, just audience expectations not being met for what they believe it to be. Reviews are already mediocre, and that could be why.

I definitely think the comedy films are lining up to take advantage of what audiences really want. Movies that lift their spirits. The Family Stone doesn't appear to have that going for it and neither does a 3 hour and 7 minute Kong film.

This is how the 5-Day should look, in my opinion:

Wednesday: $9.8 million
Thursday: $6.3 million (-35.5%)
Friday: $12.6 million (+100%)
Saturday: $15.8 million (+25%)
Sunday: $11.9 million (-25%)

3-Day: $40.3 million
5-Day: $56.4 million

Not quite up to expectations, but not awful.

Only a 25% drop on Sunday?

I'd guess a smaller Saturday boost and a larger Sunday drop.... say 20% and 32%, respectively. Your Friday number looks pretty reasonable, though.

A lot of schools begin break Monday (not me, but...), so Sunday drop could be smaller than normal.

Well, I'm comparing it to Lord of the Rings, mainly. It had a better Thursday drop than all three, and obviously, the Friday increase is going to be much bigger than all three. Return of the King dropped 15.2% on Sunday after a 26% increase on Saturday.

And don't forget, Narnia dropped 32% last Sunday, and as we get closer to break, the Sunday drops will get better.

The Family Stone is a good film with a marketing campiang that is ten shades of bad, its juts not good to begin with and its not a good fit for the film. Its gives this is a light comedy staring SJp, when its a serious film staring Diane Keaton, seriously her character is the center of this film.

HOLY CRAP!!!! Telemachos!!

There is a possibility if King Kong only manages a 60% increase today, and from the look of thing so far, that possibility has grown a little bigger.

I just can't see it doing that poorly. As a comparison, Batman Begins had a weaker than expected opening day, and after a nearly 40% second day drop it looked to be headed toward disaster. But it managed a 65.9% Friday increase, and that was with summer weekdays, plus it didn't have a 3-hour runtime to hurt its weekday business.