I know this may come as a shock to many here and I'd say even more so myself, but it is now 9:15 PM on a Friday Night and the parking lot at the local RONNIE'S 20 CINE complete with IMAX and all is only 1/4 FULL for a movie like MI:3 that's supposed to kick off the Spring/Summer Season and I'm starting to wonder if my initial guess of 67 Milion for the weekend might end up more like 45 Million for the weekend based on what I've seen??? Perhaps it's the "Tomkitten Factor" or folks didn't want to go out tonight and are saving it for Saturday and Sunday?? Anyone else experiencing this or what??

If it manages below 62 million, Dr LEcter would have to start worrying about the numbers and he will end up paying me $50. I wont jump the gun just yet

I'm not even sure. It's doing awesome at my theater, but the other crowd reports so far are discouraging. Right now, I think it'll end up in the $50-60 million range for the weekend.

Hope not.

That would a bad omen (no pun intended) for 2006. Ice Age 2 has already underperformed domestically, considering how big a hit it is overseas.

WOTW was one thing. It had aliens, Spielberg, and had excellent promotion. It was also opening only about 3-4 months after the whole TomKat stuff started. It's now a little over a year since that began. It isn't like the TomKat talk has slowed down. A 6 year wait for MI3 was also too long imo.

Despite how crappy MI3 is, I want it to perform well so another director, a seasoned director, can take a crack at the franchise.

I don't know Man.. For a Friday Night and the amount of good reviews this has been receiving, one would have to think that the crowd would be a little more enthusiastic in numbers, at least where I'm at.. I have no idea how it is where everyone else lives.. I just have a feeling that this movie is going to underperform..

You really think if David Fincher had Directed this, that it possibly would perform any better than this movie and Cruise's personal life wouldn't of hindered it??? I think that's what will hurt this movie's opening is everyone being sick of Tom Cruise..

BKB, when a movie underperforms on the first day, even with good reviews, it indicates a general lack of interest. May be Tom Cruise's antics did catch up.

Honestly, I could care less about its box office under the helm of a Fincher or even a Stone (imagine how wacked out that MI film would be).

I would sleep soundly knowing a quality director took a stab at the franchise.

Say what you will about MI2 and god knows I didnt like that film but it's Woo and Towne and they used everything in their arsenal to try to make it work.

And it backfired as far as I'm concerned, but in the end, I'd be open to see what David Fincher would bring to the table..

Even if MI3 did disappoint, it would make the top star of Hollywood contest even better!

Right now I think it essentially comes down to Cruise, Smith, and Hanks.

Smith has The Pursuit of Happyness out on 12/15/06.

Cruise has MI3.

While Hanks has The Da Vinci Code.

Last year was Cruise's time to shine, with his biggest openings and total ever, along with being the 2nd biggest film of the summer.

It looks like this year, Hanks could very well do the exact same thing, but possibly on a larger scale.

Smith is on a role with MIB2, Bad Boys II, I Robot, Shark Tale, and Hitch (almost all of them have done over $140 m).
Cruise is coming off of his biggest success.

Hanks on the otherhand has been sliding down the ranks, with 2 disappointments in 2004, along with The Polar Express, but that was helped out immensely by its holiday theme, and doesn't necessarily reflect Hanks starpower.

If Cruise trips w/ MI3, Hanks could take full advantage of that and take back his spot as most bankable star in Hollywood, until Smith's next films come out...

Will Smith has been the most consistent except for Wild Wild West

why on earth is this in a separate thread??

IMO the top star of Holywood is by far Will Smith.

It's clear Smith's next film is clearly looking for Oscar:

The Pursuit of Happiness stars Will Smith in the real-life story of Chris Gardner. Despite being homeless at the age of 30, Gardner pursued his goal of becoming an investment banker. He eventually rose through the ranks of some the biggest financial companies including Dean Witter and Bear Stearns, and became owner and partner of a Chicago brokerage house for minorities. Steve Conrad scripts the Sony film.

Release date: Dec 15, 2006.

If he gets an Oscar nod, and gets this film past $100 m, he's literally cemented his spot as top star.

45 million WE? BKB you can't be serious. No need to create a thread as ludicrous as this.

Heh, you might eat those words, BKB's 45m based on how crowded the parking lot is might be accurate looking at yahoo and the crowd reports.

The opening day numbers may be weak, but 45 million is crazy. I'm not gonna put faith in a guess based on how crowded his parking lot of the theatre he frequents is. Lastly, I must admit the theatre I saw it in was not sold out and that was pretty weird considering Silent Hill was full when I saw it and SM4 had about the same amount of people, but this theatre did have it on 3 screens which would dilute the amount of people attending any given show especially when it was 2230, 23??, and 00??. I still expect a 20 million opening and at the least a 60 million weekend.

It looks to disappoint and the one reason everyone will say is that people are sick of Tom Cruise and his antics that make him look like a moron. I used to really like him but now I detest the guy and hope the film flops just so maybe he'll take a hint and shut up with his self-important, pompous BS about how he "knows" the history of Psychiatry and all that crap.

I think there are two reasons people are forgetting:

A) MI2 wasn't that liked. So, many were bound not to return.
B) MI2 was the most hyped of the summer. This year MI3 has a fraction of that with it being overshadowed by The Da Vinci Code, POTC 2, SR, X3, etc. So, the franchise had nowhere to go but down.

Some of these blockbusters are beginning to jump the gun on the summer season recently, ever since the success of (I think) Spiderman and X2. MI2 made $57 million on its opening weekend on a May 24th weekend back in 2000 and years later I just don't see the interest in this franchise being that high. I liken it to what happened with the third and fourth Batman movies. The third one had huge hype after Batman Returns and a new director came in and basically ruined it, but it still managed to pull in $52 million for the weekend. The rebound movie, Batman and Robin, opened lower ($42 million) because nobody really gave a damn after the last shitfest. That's the way I see the Mission Impossible situation.

The large gap between films is hurting it, just like it hurt Terminator 3, which could have been massive had it been released about 5 years earlier, but instead only managed a paltry $44 million. And despite his popularity from a couple of tv shows, JJ Abrams certainly isn't drawing viewers like a John Woo did coming off a hit like Face/Off. I would say that the whole Cruise thing is almost negligible in the face of these other variables. I've had this sucker pegged for a $50 million weekend for months and seriously wondering where the hell these $75 million and above predictions were coming from. We'll see I guess.

No, Tom Cruise is still the top box office draw. Hands down. Not even close. Do the math.

Baumer,

Will Smith averages: $114,216,498 per flick.

Tom Cruise: $97,264,717

Based on what stats Eagle? Are you going to include stuff like Magnolia? And how many movies are you comparing the numbers with? Are you going back to 1982 with Cruise and only to 1995 with Smith?