BOR: http://www.boxofficereport.com/wbon/forecast.shtml

King Kong - $73 million (3-day)
The Family Stone - $11 million

Gauging King kong against Narnia is dangerous because Kong's viewerbase is typically older. I see this reaching out in a big way to the 30+ audience which need time and word of mouth to lure them into cinemas. Lots of people are saying "If NARNIA can do this, then KONG can do better"

I don't see it having as big a three day as Narnia purely because Narnia is based on far more anticipated work and Kong is going to need the holiday season to spread its wings. This weekends audience should be more teenage skewing than anything else, but next weekend im pretty sure well see the older interest kick in - especially with the oscar horses being dead this year.

The only two really big ones are still in limited release and the rest dont come for a while yet.

Well Family Stone is now on moviefone, at #4.

This is pretty good I would say. I don't think it will do *that* bad. I'm in the middle of my predictions right now, I'll have them up later.

With such a void of date movies in the marketplace right now (Just Friends will make less than $3 million over the weekend!), I just don't see how a movie like The Family Stone can open to less than $10 million at the very least.

Final predictions, Shack-Style:
1. King Kong - 60.3 3-day/89.1 5-day
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe - 30.5
3. Family Stone - 14.5
4. Syriana - 7.2
5. Harry Potter - 5.6
6. Walk the Line - 3.6
7. Yours, Mine, and Ours - 3.2
8. Just Friends - 2.5
9. Aeon Flux - 2.0
10. Pride and Prejudice - 1.6

11. Brokeback Mountain - 2.76 mil (46,000 PTA)
12. Memoirs - 1.05 mil (21,000 PTA)

King Kong I lowered a bit from what I thought I would say, but that'd still be good. Enough for 300 mil probably. Narnia I have dropping 53%-ish, it has shown signs of frontloading so far, plus Kong will hurt it a bit. Family Stone I have around 5700 PTA, which is very solid. Syriana drops around 39%-40%, Potter 43-44% or so, Line around 37%, YM&O around 36-37%, Just Friends drops 33%, Aeon Flux levels off to 54%, and P&P somewhere in the 35%-36% range.

P&P is the one I'm most worried about, its 40%+ drop last week was so out there. I don't know if it will be going back to good holds(27%-ish?) again, or if it will replicate it's performance last week. I put it in the middle ground, to be safe. The numbers are so small too, a couple hundred k away will kill your derby. Erg.

EDIT - Put in Brokeback and Memoirs.

If KONG only makes 89 Million for a 5 day total, then this would have to go down as a Major Collosal Disappointment for as much gushing hype as this has received, especially whrn the Great George Lucas said it would get 150 Million in 3 days.. Ouch....

BJs wknd outlook

1.King Kong - 56.00m New
2.The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrode - 34.00m(-48.5% from last Wknd)
3.The Family Stone - 10.20m New
4.Syriana - 7.40m (-36.5% from last Wknd)
5.Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 6.20m (-39.5% from last Wknd)
6.Walk the Line - 3.60m (-36.5% from last Wknd)
7.Brokeback Mountain - 3.58m (+556% from last Wknd) $52,000 PTA
8.Yours, Mine and Ours - 3.00m (-34.5% from last Wknd)
9.Just Firends - 2.20m (-40.5% from last Wknd)
10.Memoirs of Geisha - 2.15m (+210% from last Wknd) $40,000-45,000 PTA
11.Aeon Flux - 2.10m (-54% from last Wknd)
12.Pride and Prejudice - 1.800m (-30% from last Wknd)

The Polar Express (IMAX) - 1.600m (+72% from last Wknd)
The Producers - .450m New $75,000 PTA

Top Ten Total: 128.33m
Top Twelve Total: 132.23m (+14.5% from last Wknd)

I know! You know what this means, right?


We're lagging behind.


Tomorrow, we will intentionally pick a few fights. I insist.


I'll pick Libs, cause she never replies, so it's easy bitchin'. You pick BJ. He's so easygoing, you couldn't possibly end up in a bad situation.

These are my derby predictions.

1. King Kong - 50.4m
2. Narnia - 31.5m (-52%)
3. Family Stoner - 11.5m
4. Syrania - 8.0m (-32%)
5. Harry Potter - 6.4m (-38%)
6. Walk the Line - 3.5m (-38%)
7. Yours, Mine and Ours - 3.1m (-40%)
8. Just Friends - 2.6m (-32%)
9. Aeon Flux - 2.1m (-55%)
10. Pride and Prejudice - 1.7m (-34%)

Top Ten Cume - 120.8m

Scott, I have the exact same predictions as you for quite a few films. I should've gone with $63m for KK, oh well.


Here are my predictions for this weekend:

1. King Kong $67.5m
2. The Chronicles of Narnia $31.5m
3. The Family Stone $12m
4. Syriana $7.5m
5. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $5.9m
6. Walk the Line $3.6m
7. Yours, Mine and Ours $3.3m
8. Just Friends $2.7m
9. Aeon Flux $2.1m
10. Pride and Prejudice $1.7m

Damn it Scott, doesn't look like I'm gonna make much ground with you, maybe I'll lose ground again...

King Kong - 50
Narnia - 30
Family Stone - 10
Syriana - 7
Harry Potter - 5
Walk the Line - 4
Yours, Mine and Yours - 3
Just Friends - 2.5
Pride and Prejudice - 2
Aeon Flux - 1.5

01. King Kong $58.0m
02. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $30.8m
03. The Family Stone $9.2m
04. Syriana $5.8m
05. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $5.5m
06. Walk the Line $3.7m
07. Yours, Mine and Ours $3.0m
08. Just Friends $2.4m
09. Aeon Flux $2.0m
10. Pride and Prejudice $1.6m

Sorry that the articles have been late the last couple of weeks:

1. King Kong - 56.0m
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - 31.2m
3. The Family Stone - 12.0m
4. Syriana - 6.8m
5. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 6.0
6. Walk the Line - 3.4
7. Brokeback Mountain - 3.0
8. Yours, Mine and Ours - 2.8
9. Just Friends - 2.3
10. Aeon Flux - 1.9
11. Pride and Prejudice - 1.8
- Memoirs of a Geisha - 1.1

1. King Kong ..................54
2. Chronicles of Narnia.....32
3. Family Stone................9.7
4. Syriana.......................7.2
5. Harry Potter4...............6.0
6. Walk the Line...............3.6
7. Yours, Mine and Ours....3.1
8. Just Friends..................2.5
9. Aeon Flux.....................1.9
10.Pride and Prejudice.......1.7

1. King Kong - 65.2m
2. Narnia - 33.3m
3. Family Stone - 9.7m
4. Syrania - 7.0m
5. Harry Potter - 5.7m
6. Walk the Line - 3.6m
7. Yours, Mine and Ours - 3.2m
8. Just Friends - 2.4m
9. Aeon Flux - 1.6m
10. Pride and Prejudice - 1.6m

Brandons:
1. King Kong - 58.0m
2. Narnia - 32.0m
3. Family Stone - 9.8m
4. Syrania - 6.1m
5. Harry Potter - 5.9m
6. Walk the Line - 3.8m
7. Yours, Mine and Ours - 2.9m
8. Just Friends - 2.4m
9. Aeon Flux - 2.0m
10. Pride and Prejudice - 1.9m

Heh.

The-Numbers.com was predicting $30 million for Kong yesterday and $18 million today.

Oops.

Is Brandon reading our board?

Close to final
1. King Kong - $57.3 million
2. Chronicles of Narnia - $31.4 million
3. The Family Stone - $12.0 million
4. Syriana - $7.1 million
5. Harry Potter - $5.8 million
6. Walk the Line - $3.9 million
7. Yours, Mine and Ours - $3.0 million
8. Just Friends - $2.4 million
9. Brokeback Mountain - $2.0 million
10. Pride & Prejudice - $1.9 million

Well, he wouldn't need it. I derived at my predictions using data for previous films from BOM, all of which is at his disposal


If I checked up on Kong preds. here, I probably would not have gone with $67.5m, heh.

People are going too low with The Family Stone...?

I really hope it does better than that..

Vovanik almost has the same predictions as me? HONORED! In response to some saying people are going too low for Family Stone, here is what I factored in when I made my prediction (10.1). I took the PTA for In Her Shoes (similar demographic) and added $1000 to that PTA. This was because it is in less theaters, and is more Christmas oriented. It is up against huge competition though, even if it may be counter-programming, and its reviews are not quite as strong. Buzz doesn't seem to be as big as IHS either, but I see strong legs in the future.

Derby Predictions
1. King Kong - $53.5 million (NEW)
2. The Chronicles of Narnia - $33.4 million (-49.0%)
3. The Family Stone - $10.8 million (NEW)
4. Syriana - $7.6 million (-35.0%)
5. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $6.2 million (-40.0%)
6. Walk the Line - $3.6 million (-36.0%)
7. Yours, Mine and Ours - $3.2 million (-35.0%)
8. Just Friends - $2.5 million (-35.0%)
9. Aeon Flux - $2.0 million (-55.0%)
10. Pride and Prejudice - $1.6 million (-38.0%)

Derby:

King Kong $60m
Narnia $31.8m
The Family Stone $11.5m
Syriana $6.4m
Harry Potter $6m
Walk the Line $3.8m
Yours, Mine and Ours $3.1m
Just Friends $2.5m
Aeon Flux $1.9m
Pride and Prejudice $1.8m

Looks like I'll be closer to Kong than you will. I will overtake you once and for all.