Ahh, I meant I see $18.8 million for the weekend, as I projected in my projections on the first page. Sorry about the typo.

This is pretty much the pattern I see. Only a slightly bigger drop on Saturday and a slightly smaller one on Sunday.

Then again, those were movies that were in release for a bit of a longer time and they didn't make really big numnbers on Friday making it a bit easier to increase on Saturday. Also, back in 2003 quite a bit of adult-oriented flicks dropped on Saturday and in 2002 all movies in the Top 11 dropped on Saturday.

I'm not sure if Potter will fall today. I also think it has a chance to do 60 for the weekend.

When was the last time a family-oritned flick did not drop on the Saturday after Thanksgiving?

I can't recall a single occasion in the past 3-4 years.

SBD once again proves that it is the best at under predicting

though there P&P estimate is fantastic

ture but they didnt sway as adult as this one does, as DP07 would put it. I think/hope it will stay flat.

No, I mean as opposed to the decrease that people in this thread seem to be expecting.

I agree with Jeff. WTL should have a 2.5 IM and $19.5M weekend.

Derailed is too low.

It would rock if WTL could break 20m again this wknd

you and your derailed obsession

Lecter, I rarely disagree with your analysis, but I believe Potter won't drop today either. Some points to consider are Black Friday was a shopping extravaganza this year (more than last year I heard) and also, this is the longest running time of the Potter franchise so far. This could in turn offset the increase for Black Friday this year and in turn may translate to a smaller drop or even stay flat OR even increase a bit today. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I think it has a shot to be closer to 60 million than you think.

No, it's not. It dropped 80% from Thursday. What did you expect?

Well, let's hope you are right then because that would be:

1. Good for my prediction ($61.8 million)

2. Good for my total gross projection

3. Good for my argument with DP07

4. Good for the movie which I liked.

So let's hope I am wrong and you are not. But I doubt it. BTW, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets had a longer running time, I believe by 5 minutes or something like that.

I think you are being overly optimistic.

ooo, you're right Chamber of Secrets does seem to be longer, my bad. No wonder that movie felt like it plodded, though I do think the movies seem to get more entertaining and enjoyable after each installment (I share the same feelings about the books too). Yeah I predicted a too-high 63 million also for the derby, but if it stays near your projection, that's good for our total gross predictions (I predicted 100/270 million before the opening)

MCN has Syriana earned $0.13M on Friday in 5 theaters. That will translate to a $0.3M weekend at least for a spectacular $60,000 PTA.

I don't think Potter will drop today either. The rule saying that it will is based on family movies but Goblet is more along the lines of LOTR as Harry gets older. He's not 10 anymore.

finally someone else gets it. :-) it's no longer a kiddie film.

For the movies, I definitely agree, for the books, I think the series peaked with the 4th, but the 5th and the 6th are still better than the first two.

Then again, even if it makes "only" $54-55 million over the weekend, it will still make it to at elast $270 million in total and that is fine by me.

It isn't just family movies that fall on TG saturday. 2002's Die Another Day (the highest grossing 'adult' movie that weekend) fell on Saturday. So did other older skewing movies that year. 2003's Master and Commander fell Sat.

And Potter's at a much higher point than any of those, has a frontloading effect, and still skews younger than those movies.

I just think that because this Potter film is so much better than the others that there is less of a chance of it dropping. I think it will clear 60 mill for the weekend and it will have no problem clearling 300 mill. Quality does count for something and a film like this one will get people like me into the theater maybe twice. I didn't like any of the Potter films all that much but this one has a darker tone and there is more story to it. I'll be seeing it again. Plus, the slate of films this weekend geared towards kids are pretty weak so Potter will benefit from that.

I don't think that Potter is really THAT much more liked than Prisoner of Azkaban. You might not like it, but I think that it was generally very well-liked.

Anyway, I hope the best for it.

potter will earn probably about 23-24 on saturday then 16-17 for 60 weekend million. either way, itll be at about 210 million after 10 days. im going on record for that if potter drops under 47% it is a LOCK for 300 million and if it drops under 42% its lock to outgross the first.

plut potters 40 million friday, this might be a 46% drop, but then again add in how extremely frontloaded its opening day was with pre ticket sales, midnight screenings which this friday didnt have. under the same circumstancs as yesterday(no midnight/presales) potter would of opened to about 31-34 million. compared to that, this 22 million signals vey very strong word of mouth for potter, i thinks.

also, azkaban had a multiplier of 2.7. its opening day gross was what it got in second wekend. goblet of fire will earn a lot more then 40 this weekend, so we can expect that multplier to be way over 2.7. more then likely ovber 3 and past the 3.15 it needs to pass sorcerors stone.

so basically, at this point, 300 millions the least itll get, with id say 350 the tip top.

also, that is fantastic four yours mine and ours, its 5 day could be over 25 million, which is quite the feat against potter. incredible drop for wtl.

Doc,

You might say that the WOM for POA was strong, but it's multiplier indicated otherwise...this one is already tracking ahead of poa, so look for it to kill the total gross....it will pass 300 and possibley 330.