How is Walk the line and Pride and Prejudice too low?? I myself projected them at $3 million and $1 million, respectively. In my opinion, both are projecting to be bigger than expected.

Walk the Line
Wed: $3.3 million
Thur: $4.46 million (+35%)
Fri: $8.69 million (+95%)
Sat: $8.95 million (+3%)
Sun: $4.57 million (-49%)
3-Day: $22.2 million
5-Day: nearly $30 million

Pride and Prejudice
Wed: $1.1 million
Thur: $1.54 million (+40%)
Fri: $3.1 million (+102%)
Sat: $3.17 million (+2%)
Sun: $1.61 million (-49%)
3-Day: $7.88 million
5-Day: $10.4 million

Batshit crazy

My 3-Day Projections:
1. Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $66.2 million (-35.5%)
2. Walk the Line - $22.2 million (-0.7%)
3. Yours, Mine, and Ours - $20.8 million (NEW)
4. Rent - $17.4 million (NEW)
5. Just Friends - $12.8 million (NEW)
6. Chicken Little - $12.6 million (-14.3%)
7. Pride and Prejudice - $7.9 million (+269%)
8. In the Mix - $5.6 million (NEW)
9. Derailed - $4.2 million (-35.4%)
10. The Ice Harvest - $3.5 million (NEW)

Ice Harvest is going to pass Zathura?

I have Zathura getting $3.3 million, so yeah. Adult films will increase more Thursday and Friday. Kid films slowly increase.

Oh, I didn't know that.

BJ likes, I wish P&P could have made more though

It deserves to

Of course showbiz has GOF's total messed up, it should be at 133.8 and not 133.3 if that 14.1 is right. Of course that doesn't surprise me abou them, they are constantly behind in that regard.

So, The Ice Harvest made below $600,000 on wednesday?? YIKES. My derby is going down the toilet. Not to mention peer pressure convinced me to push my Rent prediction lower, and now it has opened utterly fantastically well.

I knew I should have stayed away from predicting, but I figured since I'm doing BOP3, I might as well.... *sigh*

PEACE, Mike.

There's no way either of these movies makes as much as you're projecting (assuming accurate Wednesday numbers). The total Wednesday to Friday increases for both are just unrealistically high.

Here are the Wed-to-weekend multipliers for previous thanksgiving openers...

2004
KRANK 8.98
ALXND 5.47
2003
HAUNT 7.48
BSNTA 10.23
MISSN 8.27
TIMEL 6.43
2002
TPLNT 7.07
AS8CN 5.44
SOLAR 8.12
THEY 6.71
EXTRM 8.12
2001
SPYGM 7.93
KNGHT 8.44
OUTCO 5.39
Average 7.43

from ty97: http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?1124114547.ty97

Note that these are for the 5-day weekend.

yup

Funny, because I raised my Rent prediction from $11M to $15M due to peer pressure.

Its weekend multiplier should be low though, since its fanbase is so rabid and should make it frontloaded.

Still, anything below $25 million for the 5-day weekend seems unlikely now. $30 million is a possibility.

Thanksgiving 2004

I was expected Pride and Prejudice to follow Finding Neverland's daily pattern. It rose 42.5% on Thursday. But it did only rise 75.7% on Fri, so that's where I could have messed up. I thought it would get more of a chick flick kinda Fri increase, so I went with Bridget Jones. I should have stayed with one movie. I corrected the Thursday increase to 8%, so that would lead to a $6.1 million 3-Day weekend.

I thought Walk the Line would kinda follow Ray's pattern, though it was much further in its run. Ray had a 54.1% Thur increase, though it had a different audience (but same age). Then Ray had a 114% Fri increase. I don't expect Walk the Line to get as high as this, but close. I won't revise this one.

Corrected numbers at SBD

Title Daily Total
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 14.1 133.3
RENT 5.0 5.0
YOURS, MINE & OURS 3.4 3.4
WALK THE LINE 3.3 30.2
CHICKEN LITTLE 2.4 103.5
JUST FRIENDS 2.0 2.0
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE 1.1 7.6
IN THE MIX .8 .8
DERAILED .7 23.7
ZATHURA .6 22

P & P. It deserved more.

God damnit. Rent went a lot higher than I expected while Pride and Prejudice went a lot lower. I fell for the peer pressure. Decent for Just Friends (which is awesome, by the way). Horrible for In the Mix and The Ice Harvest (assuming it's actually below $600,000).

Great for Harry Potter!! $300m here we come!

Wednesday (the-numbers.com)

1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $14.4
2 Rent $5.3
3Yours, Mine and Ours $3.3
4 Walk the Line $3.3
5 Chicken Little $2.3
6 Just Friends $2
7 Pride & Prejudice $1
9 In the Mix $1
9 Derailed $0.8
10 Zathura $0.6
11 The Ice Harvest $0.5

Excellent for Rent and very bad for The Ice Harvest.

BJ likes

P&P is lower though

Im going to get 0% for both The Ice Harvest and P&P this wknd on the derby

Excellent for Rent and Harry Potter!